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Can it be said that YF-130 development is probably getting along reasonably well considering that they have decided to develop the even more powerful YF-135 which is 660 tons against the YF-130's 440 ton (both twin-chamber)?
China's Space Program News Thread
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Can it be said that YF-130 development is probably getting along reasonably well considering that they have decided to develop the even more powerful YF-135 which is 660 tons against the YF-130's 440 ton (both twin-chamber)?
I do think the ILRS moon base is an important determinant for the priority of CZ-9(21) -- for example, if they determine that there's a very important ILRS payload that just has to be launched by a certain year that the arrival of CZ-9(21) will not be ready for, then I could conceivably see them pushing for CZ-9(11) to continue being developed. That said, I personally think that if cancellation of 9(11) could help speed up 9(21) by a few years, and even if it means 9(21) would still end up pushing the ILRS moon base to the right by a few years, that could be an acceptable sacrifice. The ILRS base could have some of its smaller modules launched by CZ-5DY to plant an initial presence, and once CZ-9(21) is ready and VTVL capable, the boost in medium to long term expansion of the ILRS's size would be far greater than the initial short to medium term capacity that CZ-9(11) could provide.
(This is ignoring the other many benefits of reusable VTVL CZ-9(21) in conducting LEO launches as well that CZ-9(11) could not do).
I think the other important determinant for CZ-9(21)'s priority is the projected launch capacity of other nations in future era increments.
E.g.: how much annual tonnage would the US be expected to be capable of launching in 2025, 2030, 2035, etc.
I certainly do not think a nation's space program should be entirely dictated by competing up with what others are doing, but at the same time the geopolitical priority of certain projects has to be informed by other happenings in the world.
I suppose it is reassuring that continued development for YF-130 and YF-90 will still help to benefit YF-135's work, in which case at least the resources and time on YF-130 and YF-90 are not wasted.
The entire architecture of CZ-9(11) -- specifically the removable side boosters allow the 100t LEO CZ-9A and 50t LEO CZ-9B variants to exist -- are almost entirely invalidated by their commitment to CZ-5DY and its 70t LEO capability, as well as its resuable VTVL architecture that neither CZ-9A and CZ-9B offers.
That leaves us with the 140t LEO CZ-9(11) variant that is basically the only remaining CZ-9(11) variant that provides any sort of use, but it also doesn't have a reusable VTVL architecture, and the only thing going for it at this stage is if for some reason China really desperately needs the ability to put 140t into LEO or 50t into LTO by a specific deadline and aren't willing to wait a few more years for the much more future proof CZ-9(21).
But going into the 2030s and 2040s, I cannot see CZ-9(11) being relevant, while CZ-9(21) and even CZ-5DY offering substantially more longevity.
VTVL reusable first stages of:
- triple core CZ-5DY
- single core CZ-DY
- CZ-9(21)
Would basically cover all major launch categories.
Though of course, the virtue of CZ-9(21)'s design means:
- triple core CZ-9(21) with VTVL reusability could also be very viable if a need for it emerges.
Shenzhou-13 crew will perform the second extravehicular activity today. Zhai Zhigang and Ye Guangfu will going out of Tiangong, and Wang Yaping will stay inside the CSS for supporting operation.
It's the 72th day since the crew aboarded Tiangong Space Station.
In a peer to peer competition, it is unlikely for any one party to hold the lead for long in the short term. The real competition will play out over several decades.
English version of same article from 2020, posting here for archive's sake.
Chinese scientist envisions regular spacecraft flights by 2045
Source: Xinhua| 2020-09-18 18:39:31
FUZHOU, Sept. 18 (Xinhua) -- A Chinese space expert on Friday said that he envisions China will be able to operate regular spacecraft flights by 2045.
The regular flights will include one-hour routes between global destinations, transportation between ground and orbit, and routes between orbits, said Bao Weimin, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Bao, who is also director of the Committee of Science and Technology under the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, made the remarks at the ongoing 2020 China Space Conference held in Fuzhou, capital of east China's Fujian Province.
By 2045, China is expected to operate over 1,000 spacecraft flights per year, transporting a total of 10,000 tonnes of freight and 10,000 passengers, said Bao.
By that time, the overall performance of China's spacecraft flight industry will have reached a world-class level, he added.
2021 is the year to set new world launch record since 1957 and it's not finish via ClosertoSpace
by78
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CNSA
Before 2021, CNSA's highest annual launching record were made in 2020 and 2018, both 39 launches, then 34 shots in 2019.
CNSA made her new record in space launching by 53 times this year.At 11:11 on December 26, 2021 Beijing time, a CZ-4C carrier rocket successfully launched the Ziyuan-1 02E (资源一号02E) satellite into orbit. This launch is the 403rd flight of the Long March series.
Before 2021, CNSA's highest annual launching record were made in 2020 and 2018, both 39 launches, then 34 shots in 2019.
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