I get the logic and rationale of your explanation(s) of the immense challenge and dilemma the PLA will face in a potential war with the U.S./PH. But I am unconvinced that somehow the Filipino folks will hanker down ala Ukrainians when the shit literally hits the fan. For much of their history the population that tend to put up the strongest and most fierce resistance against their would be colonizers come from the southerners a.k.a. from the islands of Visayas (Bohol) and Mindanao -- where Muslims have been struggling to fight for their own independence.@plawolf i'll split answers between you and @FairAndUnbiased in uncovered parts if you don't mind. Or that will be whole lot of typing instead of my happy 假放 ;p
Big bases with lots of local population&military to draw repair workers from.
Big Chinese missiles aren't an infinite resource, and they're needed in an arc stretching from Hokkaido to (potentially) Dehli.
Also, watching Russian strikes against Starokonstantinov(storm shadow base) - while we don't know their exact effect and sometimes there are suspicious windows in strikes from there, the overall fact is that the airfield is unsuppressed. Area & concealment matter.
My master thesis was on a topic closely aligned to them, exactly when they were built. I do have a rough idea of their size, shape, vegetation, infrastructure, and so on.
Experience on the suppression of open atoll airfield bases during WW2 also comes in handy. They are suppressable - way more so than land bases.
Since you doubted my qualifications - let me ask for yours. Have you ever seen or planned scanning patterns for UAVs?
Like, I did. I doesn't work this way - and this is why people still struggle to understand how HIMARS(and Tornados) live in Ukraine. Yet live they do - very often even after getting detected - and lost.
Also, we haven't even achieved that air superiority yet. It's a such small thing as air superiority against the United States at a meager +2-3 thousand kilometers away from the mainland - all that while probably fighting against all those Wanwans, Japans and other South Koreas; maybe Singapore as well.
It isn't some magic thinking - it's a basic self-deployment maneuver into infrastructure that is already there(since the cold war and even WW2), and is being actively refurbished, openly, as we speak. Why all the denial?
Aussie F-35A at Clark.
What matters isn't the "balance of powers". China will be more powerful in SCS, this isn't doubted.
But superior force generation doesn't exactly deny enemy fires.
What matters is that:
(0)Philippines host US troops, aimed at Chinese forces and China proper. They already do.
(2)Philippines, among others, block access to and out of SCS(and also ensure freedom of access from outside to hostile assets);
(3)from Philippines all of the SCS is under threat, and thus your freedom of use of the sea is compromised. SCS includes key SLOCs, including coastal traffic, vital for Chinese economy.
(4)from Philippines, among others, Chinese mainland can be shot (USMC tomahawks).
Yes, China can shoot back and turn the Philippines into a mess, as Russia does at Ukraine.
People will suffer, Zelenskiy will curse from the screen, and nothing will change.
You need to deny the ground to the hostile forces, not take revenge on civilians. It's pointless.
And turning the Philipines into a wasteland without a powerful strategic bombing campaign will not be achieved anyways.
Overall: US fires ensure, that the right solution is being able to invade Philippines in force and occupy them.
Looking scary and threatening consequences has already failed.
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The most important centre of gravity against a potential conflict with the PH is the Filipino psyche and morale. If their political elites are to be shown as nothing more than cowards and self-serving sell outs to the American interest by literally targeting all their political and military elites anywhere and everywhere in the country showing them to be helpless and impotent against the determined power and will of the PLA. Most especially against the U.S. forces which is the PRIMARY AND SOLE reason where the confidence come from. Destroy that of which provides the illusion of invulnerability and everything crumbles.
