China's SCS Strategy Thread

[vincent]

This is vengeful targeting, which wastes lots of weapons and doesn't really prevent US fires from operating.
There is an issue - US systems on a certain land mass, threatening (1)critical bodies of water(SCS, Luzon Strait, Philippine sea), (2)Southern China proper.
Solve the issue, don't cheer up yourself through acts of revenge on people who are basically hostages to the situation.

On top of that - since the solution to the issue conveniently places your own air bases and fires in place of their hostile predecessors - and it conveniently closes up the home sea from much of the external threat.

Think a bit more buddy.
No airports nor ports = no resupply of weapons. No power stations and no fuels = no HIMARs/Typhon running around

PLA doesn’t need expensive missiles to take out targets on Luzon island. Cheap laser guided munitions drop by H-6 and J-16 will do

 

[Gloire_bb]

Think a bit more buddy.
No airports nor ports = no resupply of weapons. No power stations and no fuels = no HIMARs/Typhon running around

HIMARS can be literally supplied by small-scale civilian logistics. I.e. it has a super light logistical footprint, any lighter and it's a literal guerilla weapon.
It's a medium truck, and its missile packs (all of them of the same size and ~same weight) fit into any light foton truck, available in hundreds of thousands. No specialized loader vehicle is needed, just get it to the destination somehow. It's sealed and can be stored outside.
Carrying pack to the Philippines can be again done with literally anything. Even medium RIBs take 1t loads without a problem.

Thus there is only way to prevent the US military from operating them is, - forgive me for repetitiveness - is, indeed, to prevent US military from operating them.
Destroying them from afar is not feasible - it has to be done by men on the ground. Either Philippino or Chinese.
So, the right way is not to try to scare Filipinos from doing something they've already done; it's too late. The way is to prepare a capability for amphibious operation.

 

[Gloire_bb]

HIMARS are only ‘annoying survivable’ in Ukraine due to Russian inability to achieve air dominance. The PLA won’t have that problem against the Philippines. HIMARS would be easy meat for Chinese UCAVs that can engage them as soon as they are discovered and don’t need to wait for ground based fires.

And against the US? Philippino AF is negligible and can be ignored, it isn't them who're the problem.
A kind reminder, the Philippines aren't exactly that close to China, and it isn't Chinese airbases that are there.

The amount of investment the US needs to make to make the Philippines a fortress is utterly prohibitive and a total non-go. The only purpose for the US to involve the Philippines is for them to die in huge numbers in any fight against China to waste Chinese ammo and create sympathy in neutrals.

US part of the investment is placing fires there, which they see as a bargain.
Defending island landmass is conveniently done by the local army, which doesn't cost a dollar to US taxpayer.

And yes, whether the US are cynical as f here - (1)Philippinos accepted it, (2)China needs a solution to this problem.
In case of a conflict, US fires and airbases must be verifiably removed from this area, to keep Chinese mainland, rear bases and sea communications out of harms' way.

 

[Micron]

I am perfectly real - US a preparing for the conflict you're trying to deny.
Denying leads to entering conflict unprepared.
Russia already did, you can see the costs. And no, the risk of national suicide didn't stop Ukraine.
Why do you assume that Philippines will stop, when they say they won't, US places their assets there, and it already happened in the past?


Endgame for US - keeping the dominance in Asia, and keeping in check the only emergent competitor to its preeminence.
Endgame for the Philippines - sticking with a perceived stronger guy, and getting benefits from it, at least for the elites.

This is vengeful targeting, which wastes lots of weapons and doesn't really prevent US fires from operating.
There is an issue - US systems on a certain land mass, threatening (1)critical bodies of water(SCS, Luzon Strait, Philippine sea), (2)Southern China proper.
Solve the issue, don't cheer up yourself through acts of revenge on people who are basically hostages to the situation.

On top of that - since the solution to the issue conveniently places your own air bases and fires in place of their hostile predecessors - and it conveniently closes up the home sea from much of the external threat.

If this is true. How come US is sending billions and weapons instead of soldiers in Ukraine?

Dominance is a US expression but not those of China. If China serk dominance would have become a Province in China. But Mindanao seeling independence is REAL and may become a reality.

Endgame as in how BingBong intend to stop it now that he expanded the dispute and baptizism by water cannon without losing face.

Unfortunately apart from Philippines, no ASEAN nation respects the US today.
To ASEAN, USA talks a lot.
No leader in ASEAN apart from BingBong desired to meet Biden.
Even BingBong is ostracized by the rest as a troublemaker and regarded as a US proxy.

Attacks on Luzon infrastructures are NOT vengeful act as described by you but will become a reality of what war encompassed.
Get real. Are you wishing a war or not?

 

[duskseeker]

Think a bit more buddy.
No airports nor ports = no resupply of weapons. No power stations and no fuels = no HIMARs/Typhon running around

PLA doesn’t need expensive missiles to take out targets on Luzon island. Cheap laser guided munitions drop by H-6 and J-16 will do

I remember getting suspended for this same reason.... now people are finally catching up to what Im saying...

 

[Micron]

I am perfectly real - US a preparing for the conflict you're trying to deny.
Denying leads to entering conflict unprepared.
Russia already did, you can see the costs. And no, the risk of national suicide didn't stop Ukraine.
Why do you assume that Philippines will stop, when they say they won't, US places their assets there, and it already happened in the past?


Endgame for US - keeping the dominance in Asia, and keeping in check the only emergent competitor to its preeminence.
Endgame for the Philippines - sticking with a perceived stronger guy, and getting benefits from it, at least for the elites.

This is vengeful targeting, which wastes lots of weapons and doesn't really prevent US fires from operating.
There is an issue - US systems on a certain land mass, threatening (1)critical bodies of water(SCS, Luzon Strait, Philippine sea), (2)Southern China proper.
Solve the issue, don't cheer up yourself through acts of revenge on people who are basically hostages to the situation.

On top of that - since the solution to the issue conveniently places your own air bases and fires in place of their hostile predecessors - and it conveniently closes up the home sea from much of the external threat.

LOL USA is ill prepared for any war whether it is financially or militarily e.g. her CL-20 explosive can last only a couple of days, a week at the most.
China has plenty.
US is so short of ammunition that she needs to buy them from South Korea. The list goes on.
I can't stop laughing. Get real.
Why is US officials taking turns to fly to Beijing in recent days?

 

[plawolf]

And against the US? Philippino AF is negligible and can be ignored, it isn't them who're the problem.

So? The USAF isn’t magic. They cannot teleport around the globe and are subject to the same limitations of logistics and range as everyone else. And right now they don’t have any credible or survivable ability to materially influence the fight in and around the Philippines.

A kind reminder, the Philippines aren't exactly that close to China, and it isn't Chinese airbases that are there.

So you just forgetting all about the Chinese SCS island fortresses?

US part of the investment is placing fires there, which they see as a bargain.
Defending island landmass is conveniently done by the local army, which doesn't cost a dollar to US taxpayer.

Here you are, trying to have your cake and eat it.

Either it’s a minimal cost investment by the US to place some offensive firepower close to China’s SCS bases and southern Taiwan. In which case those launch platforms are essentially single-use at best and absolutely disposable in that they will have zero combat condition survivability if they are depending on local forces to protect them. Or it’s going to require a massive fortress building exercise by the US to project sufficient defensive and offensive capabilities to give those launch platforms even a modicum of survival chances against the array of firepower the PLA has already in place.

And yes, whether the US are cynical as f here - (1)Philippinos accepted it, (2)China needs a solution to this problem.
In case of a conflict, US fires and airbases must be verifiably removed from this area, to keep Chinese mainland, rear bases and sea communications out of harms' way.

The US needs vastly more investment to achieve the minimal threshold needed to make this an actual problem China needs to solve. Right now it’s barely a distraction.

 

[Micron]

Just be grateful that China has instructed her Coastguard to show restraint in order not to escalate the problem.
The collapse of US financial system is inevitable and China only has only to wait patiently. She will win this one without firing a bullet.

 

[gelgoog]

And against the US? Philippino AF is negligible and can be ignored, it isn't them who're the problem.
A kind reminder, the Philippines aren't exactly that close to China, and it isn't Chinese airbases that are there.

China does not need to be working on the H-20 or producing H-6Ks to hit targets in the Philippines.
The J-16 has more than enough range.
If the US strikes the Chinese fleet in the area in case of Chinese intervention in Taiwan, then US military bases in Okinawa will turn into rubble.
As will all other US bases in the Asia-Pacific.

US part of the investment is placing fires there, which they see as a bargain.
Defending island landmass is conveniently done by the local army, which doesn't cost a dollar to US taxpayer.

And yes, whether the US are cynical as f here - (1)Philippinos accepted it, (2)China needs a solution to this problem.
In case of a conflict, US fires and airbases must be verifiably removed from this area, to keep Chinese mainland, rear bases and sea communications out of harms' way.

China does not need to conquer anything. They just need to render every single US base, every single US ally, into rubble.
Unlike Imperial Japan, China has no use for colonizing other countries.

Also. None of the rockets you can shoot with HIMARS have enough range to strike mainland China from the large Filipino islands. At best they will be able to hit Southern Taiwan.

 

[Gloire_bb]

So? The USAF isn’t magic. They cannot teleport around the globe and are subject to the same limitations of logistics and range as everyone else. And right now they don’t have any credible or survivable ability to materially influence the fight in and around the Philippines.

Why?
They're literally based there, and they're building - and repairing - infrastructure. Like,

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one, and there are many similar news.
The Philippines are certainly within the range of their maneuver, both from the west (Wake - with refuel) and especially south (Darwin - direct F-35 flight, no problem). Carriers&LHDs can do that and more.

And while USAF isn't magic - they're the World's strongest air force, supported by world's third tactical force(navair) and another one in the top 5(marine air). That's a lot of magic.

China is their stated enemy number 1, Philippines is the best place to contain and fight China(and also the weakest if not reinforced).

If this is SCS strategy thread - this is a subject to talk about, not winning water cannon battles against a weak proxy.
There is a force behind all this, and this force has existing or potential basing options around all the SCS.
Calming yourself with the words 'they won't dare' is no solution.

So you just forgetting all about the Chinese SCS island fortresses?

No, but they are small and fixed - so they can be suppressed (both directly and through interdiction), and their capacity isn't exactly endless.
Safe and survivable Chinese airbases with secure supplies are much further behind, at least in Hainan. Landmass and population around matter.

Either it’s a minimal cost investment by the US to place some offensive firepower close to China’s SCS bases and southern Taiwan. In which case those launch platforms are essentially single-use at best and absolutely disposable in that they will have zero combat condition survivability if they are depending on local forces to protect them.

They are disposable. But to dispose of them you'll have to control Phillipino land mass, or they'll continue to be a threat.
Very big and annoying threat, requiring disproportional resources for backyard security - and there will be leakers nonetheless.

The US needs vastly more investment to achieve the minimal threshold needed to make this an actual problem China needs to solve. Right now it’s barely a distraction.

Why? Sustain several dispersed HIMARS/NMESIS batteries, refurbish airbases and rotate air contingents to keep them familiar with theater.
This costs pennies, and this is already more offensive capability than the whole Wanwan. Worse - it paves the way for more, much more.

If US air deploys here in force - they can at very least contest against PLAAF&strike into China in force due to proximity, it potentially allows USN surface units to enter SCS and Luzon strait in force. This, in turn, at best means China is firmly contained to 1st IC unless it can defeat US military in frontal fighting, at worst it means partial paralysis of Chinese mainland economy.
Like, at this point consequences are so dire that it's simply cheaper to invade the bloody islands before they're full of US.

TLDR: if you aren't willing to accept that Philippines made their choice and you don't want to be able to solve it - the enemy will do it for you, and you will not like it.
And what's the point of huge investment into a mobile force - i.e. navy - if you don't want to use it even when threatened.
Please spare me the peaceful character of Chinese people, victor will make sure to write you into demons in human flesh.