China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Micron]

I don't. The Philippines couldn't fight Japan in WW2, Ukraine couldn't fight Russia.
The Philippines already host theater American fires - in in near future will host USMC Tomahawks, too. Which are, of coooourse, anti-shipping only.
They made their choices - the launchers are there. Respect their choice and plan accordingly. "They wouldn't dare" because you won't if you're them is not a plan.


It does exactly nothing to dispersed&hidden US fires and the ability to supply and reinforce them.
To prevent it, a picturesque American general from a caricature must take a joy night ride on a patrol boat from Bataan first.


To help Mindanao hold a referendum on independence, there needs to be a force that'll ensure the possibility of such a vote.
Mindanao is a southern Philippino island on the opposite side of the archipelago from China, almost halfway to Australia.
To make it happen - you'll have to conquer and pacify all of the Philippines.

Destroying the Philippines Air Force and Navy(both negligible) isn't enough to achieve that. It's a huge army operation, reliant on huge maritime/air logistical effort.

So you are one of those who believe USA will come and fight on the side of Philippines over disputed islands no matter what.
When China attacked and occupied Philippines Air bases including those partially leased to US, you think American can still fly their assets freely there.
Like during WW2 USA will wait until the fighting was all over and Massacre at Manila happened before USA proclaimed that they have returned. By then most Philippines infrastructures will be flattened and the cities are in darkness.
You guys from Manila loved war.
Frankly I don't think US will honor their treaty with Philippines. They can stirred shit but Philippines can perished for all they care. They just wanted an excuse to sanction China just like what Janet Yallen was threatening to do recently but they need Philippines or Taiwan to provide legitimacy.
Mindanao is waiting for this opportunity no matter what you may say.
Malaysia will be mighty pleased.
Let me reiterate the destruction of Philippines Military spells the end of the war.
Just like I told Americans, the war over Taiwan for US is over once 2 Aircraft Carriers are sink.

 

[ansy1968]

You can just blockade the Phillipines to ensure the US won't supply more missiles and launchers. And hunt the launchers and missiles they have there. It is not like Russia has not been able to destroy HIMARS launchers despite having way worse recon capabilities than China either.

I want to see what reaction the US congress will do when the Chinese do implement a blockade, will they vote and authorized a declaration of war with China under the MDT agreement? Remember the US want to wage a hybrid war against near peer competitor not a full blown nuclear war. So it will be an interesting to see what they do, either way it's a big loss for the American, a loss of prestige that will bring an end to PAX AMERICANA or nuclear annihilation. That bring us why the US don't trust us Filipinos or even their vassals, they want to be sure that things won't go out of control.

 

[Micron]

The HIMARS is an overly rated weapon that failed miserably in Ukraine.
China has collected enough data thru intelligence on these weapons shared by Russia and in conclusion found them completely useless in their scenario.
Like I says before, just for show.

 

[Gloire_bb]

So you are one of those who believe USA will come and fight on the side of Philippines over disputed islands no matter what.

USA doesn't care about the Philippines. They damn care about China, placing offensive (not defensive) assets there. And those offensive assets are manned by US troups. Not Philippino.
Like, there is a good Jewish saying, which goes as "if someone promises to kill you - believe them".

Just like I told Americans, the war over Taiwan for US is over once 2 Aircraft Carriers are sink.

As a kind reminder, throughout 1942 US, lost 4 fleet carriers out of 7 they began the war with, that aside from half a year of endless defeats, and being almost thrown out of the whole region. Including Philippines, btw, which were meant to do more or less the same thing as today.

No, global dominance is not cheaper than two carriers (out of a dozen available). If you want to fight this conflict - do at least better than Japanese did back then.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Like they did in Eastern Ukraine on both sides?
Vegetation, foliage, and terrain in a mountainous tropical country well over half of Ukraine in surface area (and many times the spread, which matters a damn lot for satellite observation). Not even counting all the human infrastructure(a country of almost 120 million) where small trucks can be hidden.

Also, I am frankly sceptical that space intelligence will remain as good as it is during peacetime in a conflict against US. Space warfare is a threat working both ways, and, regrettably for all of us, we sorta know who's the stronger guy up there.

If you want to clean them out and prevent new ones from coming - you're either guaranteeing the Philippines are preventing them from firing (which is unlikely - because they already let them in; it's a statement), or placing your own boots on the ground.

With islands, there really isn't as much maneuvering space nor is it as relevant. A launcher in Luzon can't relocate to Mindanao easily and if it does, it is no longer a threat. This isn't like Ukraine where a launcher can drive from Kherson to Kharkiv in 3 days and is a threat at ANY point in between Kherson and Kharkiv. The relevant maneuvering space of a launcher in Luzon is a thin strip of land near the coast.

Whose stronger in space? Let's find out. Do a count of optical and SAR satellites, this is public knowledge.

 

[Micron]

USA doesn't care about the Philippines. They damn care about China, placing offensive (not defensive) assets there. And those offensive assets are manned by US troups. Not Philippino.
Like, there is a good Jewish saying, which goes as "if someone promises to kill you - believe them".

As a kind reminder, throughout 1942 US, lost 4 fleet carriers out of 7 they began the war with, that aside from half a year of endless defeats, and being almost thrown out of the whole region.

No, global dominance is not cheaper than two carriers (out of a dozen available).

That was WW2 and not 2024, get real.

USN have only less than 3-4 Aircraft Carriers that are combat ready at the most.
Don't forget a USN Aircraft Carrier that was supposed to attend the SCS exercise did not head for Philippine but ended up in a shipyard instead. Was it done on purpose.
Now you are citing a Jewish saying, to me it is a threat, so what is the endgame for USA for Philippines?
Don't have one?
Reminds you Trump once said that war, trade war is easy to win. Did he win his war?
China only reminded him that it is easy to start one but be mindful.
What is the endgame?

 

[vincent]

Given the geography, I doubt external blockade is possible.
The Philippines are just too big, they consist of too many islands. You'll need literal control over coasts and local air bases to make it work.
It all means occupation.

Russia has been able to destroy some HIMARS launchers over time. So is Ukraine, which IIRC managed to hit Tornado-S a couple of times.
These are just losses, easily replenishable losses at that(HIMARS can be flown in by helicopters, light landing craft or even smuggling ferries and even dropped from a sneaky C-130).

We do not want to make them bleed, we need them gone.

Just destroy all the infrastructure on Luzon Island, all the ports, airports, power stations, fuel depots…
Flood the island airspace with MALE armed drones. Pinoys have no air force nor air defense.

 

[Micron]

Philippines and USA should stopped all these nonsenses and propaganda.
Bingbong should just instructs her sailors to shoot at the Chinese.
Since they wanted a military conflict so badly.
From then onward, it will be showtime.
We will be enjoying the high sea drama and we will see what USA will do next. Put it to a real test.

 

[Gloire_bb]

That was WW2 and not 2024, get real.

I am perfectly real - US a preparing for the conflict you're trying to deny.
Denying leads to entering conflict unprepared.
Russia already did, you can see the costs. And no, the risk of national suicide didn't stop Ukraine.
Why do you assume that Philippines will stop, when they say they won't, US places their assets there, and it already happened in the past?

Now you are citing a Jewish saying, to me it is a threat, so what is the endgame for USA for Philippines?
Don't have one?

Endgame for US - keeping the dominance in Asia, and keeping in check the only emergent competitor to its preeminence.
Endgame for the Philippines - sticking with a perceived stronger guy, and getting benefits from it, at least for the elites.

Just destroy all the infrastructure on Luzon Island, all the ports, airports, power stations, fuel depots…
Flood the island airspace with MALE armed drones. Pinoys have no air force nor air defense.

This is vengeful targeting, which wastes lots of weapons and doesn't really prevent US fires from operating.
There is an issue - US systems on a certain land mass, threatening (1)critical bodies of water(SCS, Luzon Strait, Philippine sea), (2)Southern China proper.
Solve the issue, don't cheer up yourself through acts of revenge on people who are basically hostages to the situation.

On top of that - since the solution to the issue conveniently places your own air bases and fires in place of their hostile predecessors - and it conveniently closes up the home sea from much of the external threat.

 

[plawolf]

1, HIMARS launchers are also PRsM and ATACAMS launchers. It means targeting ships and island bases nearby from rather annoying survivable and cheap launchers.

HIMARS are only ‘annoying survivable’ in Ukraine due to Russian inability to achieve air dominance. The PLA won’t have that problem against the Philippines. HIMARS would be easy meat for Chinese UCAVs that can engage them as soon as they are discovered and don’t need to wait for ground based fires.

2, no one here wants talking about it, but "fortress Philippines" isn't exactly a new US play. The way to solve hostile ground forces is ground forces.
And in this case, HIMARS will perfectly work with their primary six-packs.

The amount of investment the US needs to make to make the Philippines a fortress is utterly prohibitive and a total non-go. The only purpose for the US to involve the Philippines is for them to die in huge numbers in any fight against China to waste Chinese ammo and create sympathy in neutrals.