China's SCS Strategy Thread

Micron

Junior Member
Registered Member
(1)Well, since they're there, you're essentially assuming they're going to fire.
(2)Yes. But it isn't rapid deployment troops, it's a massive invasion of a huge nation. Philippines are big.
(3)there are closer targets. And per what's known, at least for ATACAMS Americans are widely assumed to be lying about its max range.
So you truly believe Philippines can fight China.
All China ever need to do is to destroy Philippines entire Air Force and Navy. And the war is technically over.
Why do China ever need to occupy Philippines in order to win this war?
Without an Air Force and Navy, China can also take this opportunity to help Mindanao to hold a referendum on independence.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
1, HIMARS launchers are also PRsM and ATACAMS launchers. It means targeting ships and island bases nearby from rather annoying survivable and cheap launchers.
2, no one here wants talking about it, but "fortress Philippines" isn't exactly a new US play. The way to solve hostile ground forces is ground forces.
And in this case, HIMARS will perfectly work with their primary six-packs.
You won't be getting six missiles on a single HIMARS launcher with either PRsM or ATACMS.
More like a single ATACMS missile or two PRsM missiles.
Those six missiles you see on HIMARS launchers are smaller diameter GMLRS missiles with 200mm diameter.

China has the PCL-191 which can carry longer ranged missiles than the GMLRS. Eight missiles with 220 km range versus six missiles with 150 km range for GMLRS-ER. It also has longer range ballistic missiles than either PRsM or ATACMS.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
So you truly believe Philippines can fight China.
I don't. The Philippines couldn't fight Japan in WW2, Ukraine couldn't fight Russia.
The Philippines already host theater American fires - in in near future will host USMC Tomahawks, too. Which are, of coooourse, anti-shipping only.
They made their choices - the launchers are there. Respect their choice and plan accordingly. "They wouldn't dare" because you won't if you're them is not a plan.

All China ever need to do is to destroy Philippines entire Air Force and Navy. And the war is technically over.
Why do China ever need to occupy Philippines in order to win this war?
It does exactly nothing to dispersed&hidden US fires and the ability to supply and reinforce them.
To prevent it, a picturesque American general from a caricature must take a joy night ride on a patrol boat from Bataan first.

Without an Air Force and Navy, China can also take this opportunity to help Mindanao to hold a referendum on independence.
To help Mindanao hold a referendum on independence, there needs to be a force that'll ensure the possibility of such a vote.
Mindanao is a southern Philippino island on the opposite side of the archipelago from China, almost halfway to Australia.
To make it happen - you'll have to conquer and pacify all of the Philippines.

Destroying the Philippines Air Force and Navy(both negligible) isn't enough to achieve that. It's a huge army operation, reliant on huge maritime/air logistical effort.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
You won't be getting six missiles on a single HIMARS launcher with either PRsM or ATACMS.
More like a single ATACMS missile or two PRsM missiles.
Those six missiles you see on HIMARS launchers are smaller diameter GMLRS missiles with 200mm diameter.
And?
China has the PCL-191 which can carry longer ranged missiles than the GMLRS. Eight missiles with 220 km range versus six missiles with 150 km range for GMLRS-ER. It also has longer range ballistic missiles than either PRsM or ATACMS.
How does it affect the fact that HIMARS are there. The proposed solution is to print higher numbers and scare them into rout?
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
China has recon satellite constellations and long distance recon drones. They would just spot the launchers and do counter strikes on them.
And China's missile systems can outrange the US ones.

Then there is the fact that systems like the Typhoon Weapon System are only operated by US forces. Which means if they are used against China then all the US military bases in the Asia-Pacific region become fair game.

I think the US does not understand that striking Chinese forces with their own armed forces means it is quite likely their military bases in Asia will be wiped out.
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
1, HIMARS launchers are also PRsM and ATACAMS launchers. It means targeting ships and island bases nearby from rather annoying survivable and cheap launchers.

2, no one here wants talking about it, but "fortress Philippines" isn't exactly a new US play. The way to solve hostile ground forces is ground forces.
And in this case, HIMARS will perfectly work with their primary six-packs.
The Russian had found a way to intercept those HIMARS so they can handover the knowledge to the Chinese, I like to put forward my view, the theater will be on the second island chain, China will not invade the Philippine, all it had to do is implement a blockade emanating from the 3 major ports in Luzon (Subic, Manila and Batangas), it won't last a week the Island of Luzon will fall, if it fall the Philippine will surrender cause the major political center is in Metro Manila. Just like the Japanese did during WW2. And also those bases will be targeted and the American don't have the necessary ammunition to replace those expended ammunition.

I'll bet once the hostilities started, Marcos will seek a back channel to the Chinese promising neutrality, EDCA is all about repositioning of American arms in major areas in the Philippine, while the VFA is an agreement where the Philippine allowed the American personnel to come in and operate those machine. Under Duterte VFA can be revoked by Presidential decree it provide Marcos a way out of a stickie situation.

About EDCA

The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) is an agreement between the
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and the
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intended to bolster the
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. The agreement allows the United States to rotate troops into the Philippines for extended stays and allows the United States to build and operate facilities on Philippine bases for both American and Philippine forces.
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The U.S. is not allowed to establish any permanent
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.
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The Philippines have personnel access to American ships and planes.
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This agreement has been the subject of criticism by some leftist groups in the Philippines.
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The EDCA is a supplemental agreement to the previous
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. The agreement was signed by Philippine Defense Secretary
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and
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in Manila on April 28, 2014, preceding a visit by U.S. President
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with Philippine President
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that same day.
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On 12 January 2016, the
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upheld the agreement's constitutionality in a 10–4 vote.
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On 26 July 2016, the Philippine Supreme Court ruled with finality that the agreement is constitutional.
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The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) is an agreement between the United States and the Philippines intended to bolster the AmericanPhilippine ...


About VFA

A visiting forces agreement is a version of a status of forces agreement that only applies to troops temporarily in a country. The agreements came into force on May 27, 1999, upon ratification by the Senate of the Philippines.

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Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
China has recon satellite constellations and long distance recon drones. They would just spot the launchers and do counter strikes on them.
Like they did in Eastern Ukraine on both sides?
Vegetation, foliage, and terrain in a mountainous tropical country well over half of Ukraine in surface area (and many times the spread, which matters a damn lot for satellite observation). Not even counting all the human infrastructure(a country of almost 120 million) where small trucks can be hidden.

Also, I am frankly sceptical that space intelligence will remain as good as it is during peacetime in a conflict against US. Space warfare is a threat working both ways, and, regrettably for all of us, we sorta know who's the stronger guy up there.

If you want to clean them out and prevent new ones from coming - you're either guaranteeing the Philippines are preventing them from firing (which is unlikely - because they already let them in; it's a statement), or placing your own boots on the ground.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
You can just blockade the Phillipines to ensure the US won't supply more missiles and launchers. And hunt the launchers and missiles they have there. It is not like Russia has not been able to destroy HIMARS launchers despite having way worse recon capabilities than China either.
Then there is the fact that GMLRS and ATACMS are highly dependent on GPS guidance and can be jammed. Much like the Russians have been doing.

The Tomahawk does have TERCOM and DSMAC so it will be less vulnerable to GPS jamming. But it is an obsolete missile. It is both subsonic and non-stealthy.
 
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Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
You can just blockade the Phillipines to ensure the US won't supply more missiles and launchers. And hunt the launchers and missiles they have there. It is not like Russia has not been able to destroy HIMARS launchers despite having way worse recon capabilities than China either.
Given the geography, I doubt external blockade is possible.
The Philippines are just too big, they consist of too many islands. You'll need literal control over coasts and local air bases to make it work.
It all means occupation.

Russia has been able to destroy some HIMARS launchers over time. So is Ukraine, which IIRC managed to hit Tornado-S a couple of times.
These are just losses, easily replenishable losses at that(HIMARS can be flown in by helicopters, light landing craft or even smuggling ferries and even dropped from a sneaky C-130).

We do not want to make them bleed, we need them gone.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Russia has been able to destroy some HIMARS launchers over time. So is Ukraine, which IIRC managed to hit Tornado-S a couple of times.
These are just losses, easily replenishable losses at that (HIMARS can be flown in by helicopters, light landing craft or even smuggling ferries and even dropped from a sneaky C-130).
It still cannot hit anything worth a damn if GPS is jammed. It becomes little better than unguided rocket launches.
 
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