China's SCS Strategy Thread

[tamsen_ikard]

What exactly is the MDT going to do if there is a death from PLA water canon attack. Ph invokes MDT then what, US will come and magically start shooting the PLA ships? Will it send its own coast guard to do ramming contest with the Chinese coast guard? Philippines try to use MDT like its sort of ultimate weapon that can solve all their problems just by invoking it.

US has no power in the SCS anymore. Recent Iranian and Ukranian usage of drones and missiles should have made that clear. anti-ship missiles and drones launched from land can completely obliterate any Navy that dares to come close. No matter how accurate their air defense is, they will eventually run out. China has enough missiles and drones to destroy all of US navy several times. On top of that they have their modern air force with 2300+ combat capable planes, most of them more modern than US planes. In the SCS, land based planes are another destroyed of navies.

Marcos is essentially bluffing to save himself in the eyes of the public. Cause if the Philippine public actually knew and understood the power disparity growing in the SCS, they would probably lose their minds.

 

[chlosy]

What exactly is the MDT going to do if there is a death from PLA water canon attack. Ph invokes MDT then what, US will come and magically start shooting the PLA ships? Will it send its own coast guard to do ramming contest with the Chinese coast guard? Philippines try to use MDT like its sort of ultimate weapon that can solve all their problems just by invoking it.

US has no power in the SCS anymore. Recent Iranian and Ukranian usage of drones and missiles should have made that clear. anti-ship missiles and drones launched from land can completely obliterate any Navy that dares to come close. No matter how accurate their air defense is, they will eventually run out. China has enough missiles and drones to destroy all of US navy several times. On top of that they have their modern air force with 2300+ combat capable planes, most of them more modern than US planes. In the SCS, land based planes are another destroyed of navies.

Marcos is essentially bluffing to save himself in the eyes of the public. Cause if the Philippine public actually knew and understood the power disparity growing in the SCS, they would probably lose their minds.

Once the MDT is "invoked", the US Congress will need to discuss the subsequent response of the US.... which can take awhile.

 

[Sardaukar20]

Couple of updates from Marcos after he returned from Washington. US base access will not be expanded further, and treaty obligations will only be invoked if deaths occur. Needless to say, no deaths have occurred thus far and CCG has plenty of ways to apply pressure without killing people.

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My interpretation is that the Americans told him they have no appetite to add another mess on top of Ukraine and Israel, with support limited to PR exercises like statements and summits. So existing CCG activity (blocking, water cannons) is tacitly accepted, despite all the Filipino complaints. Current pressure should be continued and dialed up slowly, if necessary. Incremental progress is the way to go.

Water cannons can cause death if it impacts people the wrong way, or send hazardous projectiles like glass shards flying, or throw people overboard. Besides, what if some odd PH loose cannon started shooting at the CCG and then getting shot back and killed? Are they really gonna invoke the MDT? I just don't think so.

So for the PH to use "death" as a triggering point for MDT is controversial and very unwise. Most likely, this is a bluff by BBM. But this bluff could easily escalate matters, if the idiots in PH start asking for blood and BBM becomes politically cornered. If its not a bluff, and the PH do intend to invoke MDT, then the US won't go to war with China over a couple of dead Filipinos killed in a skirmish. The most the US might do are sanctions, more arms sales. and more naval patrols. But with everything going on today, the US cannot sanction China anymore without hurting itself. So good luck if the Americans do try that. Still, the ultimate point is that Americans will never shed blood for the interests of the PH, period.

 

[GenghisCant]

Once the MDT is "invoked", the US Congress will need to discuss the subsequent response of the US.... which can take awhile.

No way in hell US will ever think the death of one Filipino serviceman will meet their threshold to start a war.

 

[coolgod]

There won't be deaths of Filipino serviceman, there will just be Filipino serviceman who went missing. Even if Marcos insist, the US will deny the "deaths" as accidents.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Cross-posted from the MALE/HALE UAV thread.

Such flights by Chinese reconnaissance + surveillance HALE/MALE UAVs (this time a WZ-7) in the SCS (and throughout the WestPac in general) will definitely become more and more commonplace going forward.

 

[duskseeker]

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why trust a nation who emulates its imperial master?

 

[PhSt]

As tensions rise between the two countries, I think a dedicated thread is needed to discuss the current events involving China and the Philippines that will include topics outside of the SCS.

So its becoming clear that the US is not wasting any opportunity to position its long range weapons closer to China's doorsteps

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Meanwhile, Filipino politicians have started a witch hunt for foreign Chinese students, suspecting them of spying for Chinese interests

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

As tensions rise between the two countries, I think a dedicated thread is needed to discuss the current events involving China and the Philippines that will include topics outside of the SCS.

So its becoming clear that the US is not wasting any opportunity to position its long range weapons closer to China's doorsteps

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Meanwhile, Filipino politicians have started a witch hunt for foreign Chinese students, suspecting them of spying for Chinese interests

Holy Confucius....what's there to steal in the PH in terms of IP? Jollibee? SM? Underage prostitution, unfettered corruption, political dynasties like fiefdoms, and best of all A PROUD AMERICAN VASSAL.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

I think China will respond by starting island building once again. They will start to put heavy military equipment in the exisiting islands they have already built. They also might start looking into building up scarborough shoal, because that will be the biggest slap in the face of both Philippines and US. Having a Chinese airbase 200 miles from Manila is going to cause huge implications for Philippines.

All the ramming and water cannoning will ofcourse continue as needed. China might also think about surrounding PH controlled islands as well with Coast Guard, prevent supplies from going to these places as well. Thitu island comes to mind here.

The overall goal will be to put enormous pressure on the Philippines so that Philippines keeps begging US for support but does not get anything. US will likely provide more arms, more exercises, more bases. But it will not be fighting a water canon match with China. So, philippines will eventually lose hope and start to realize their current anti-China strategy is wrong. But this will take time. Of course change will happen once Marcos is out of power and most likely a pro-China president comes to power. But its still several years away.