China's SCS Strategy Thread

[gpt]

So its becoming clear that the US is not wasting any opportunity to position its long range weapons closer to China's doorsteps

Typhons in the Philippines near the Luzon complicates the situation for PLAAF aircraft and anti-submarine patrols that operate in the area (US subs can operate in deeper waters there). It's a very strategic location.

While the initial deployment involves only a limited number of missiles (battery of 16), they can't just ignore these threats. It's "another factor to think about" in other words.

Having said that, these shipping containers and trucks are likely tracked immediately by optical and SAR satellites as soon as it enters the region and in an actual war would face decapitation strikes before they get a chance to reload.

 

[ansy1968]

Typhons in the Philippines near the Luzon complicates the situation for PLAAF aircraft and anti-submarine patrols that operate in the area (US subs can operate in deeper waters there). It's a very strategic location.

While the initial deployment involves only a limited number of missiles (battery of 16), they can't just ignore these threats. It's "another factor to think about" in other words.

Having said that, these shipping containers and trucks are likely tracked immediately by optical and SAR satellites as soon as it enters the region and in an actual war would face decapitation strikes before they get a chance to reload.

You guys overthink things , most of Luzon ports are facing the SCS, since it had become a Chinese lake, then game over China wins. Take out Luzon the Philippine will surrender. As a precedent the Japanese during WW2 invade Luzon via the Lingayen Gulf and see The US Army Forces in the Far East (USAFFE) in the Philippines collapse completely.

Like Taiwan the most probable Chinese strategy is to blockade by closing the shipping lane in the SCS and let the US come in via the First Island Chain, that will be the theater of war. We rely mostly on imports with 40% of our food and nearly 85% of our energy needs. All of our trade infrastructure are located in Luzon with 3 major ports in Manila, Subic Bay and Batangas all facing the SCS. Those bases are nothing but sitting targets and an ornaments. When hostilities do happen you will see back channel from the Philippine offering peace in place for those bases by making it inoperable.

 

[Michael90]

What caught my attention was the sudden frenzy against Chinese students in the country. In my view, such an alarmist attitude is unprecedented, and could potentially morph into a situation similar to the anti-Chinese riots in Indonesia in 98.

There is no doubt that the current president, Marcos Jr. is compromised, so we can't expect any action from the current leadership of the PH to deescalate.

When the Philippine government recently talked about switching to a strategy of "Transparency" when it comes to managing its relations with China, what the Filipinos probably meant was to streamline provocative propaganda in an attempt to smear China in the face of the world.

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But I thought Marcos was pro China according to what I red from.some Chinese online who were happy when he won the elections. How things have turned.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

But I thought Marcos was pro China according to what I red from.some Chinese online who were happy when he won the elections. How things have turned.

It was based off on his electioneering rhetoric (essentially proclaiming that the PH is a friend to all and enemy to none). He was perceived to have been carrying the legacy of strategy from his most recent predecessor Pres. Duterte who pivoted the usually very pro U.S. policy to one of neutrality ( interpreted in the PH by a very large section of the elites as pro-China).

I followed the PH election earnestly and one could be mistaken and forgiven for being fooled by Marcos Jr. rhetoric. The Chinese and the people in general are easily fooled by mere words of verbal jujitsu when it's always been the m.o. for any WESTERN BASED POLITICAL SYSTEM: Promise you the moon, gives you shit. You of all people should be more than INTIMATELY FAMILIAR with this process, dance since you're from a country who practice such nonsensical system.

 

[Michael90]

I think that with everything that's going on with the world right now, Iran/Israel-Russia/Ukraine, it's the perfect time for escalations with Philippines. Use the ongoing events as a cover and make it clear that America isn't going to want another billion dollar money sink going on.

Not to the point of actual conflict, but a clear escalation with actual warships, live fire drills etc etc will send a clear message, with all of the chaos going on in the world and with the world much closer to WW3 then it has been in decades, do you really want another conflict zone flaring up and do you really think America can afford to pump how many tens of billions into you while they're busy with Ukraine and Israel? Americans are already bored with Ukraine after 2 years and can't even be bothered to properly fund the conflict even with no risks to their own troops. What makes you think that America will actually send their warships to fight a actual superpower with nukes?

I don't think so..To be honest, I think China's leaders are quite pragmatic and level headed, not emotionam and hot headed like those in the Middle East or even Russia, who are quick to get involved in wars/conflicts/retaliate from any small provocations from their opponents in the U.S/West/Israel with negative long term consequences for their economy/country.

China unlike the other two countries(Russia/Iran etc) has far more to lose in the event of the slightest conflict/turmoil in Asia and the response from the US against China especially will be far more than what the US is doing against Russia in Ukraine since the US sees China as a far bigger challenge/rival/opponent than Russia by a wide margin..the US has designated China as its biggest threat/challenge and rival this century and this has bipartisan support in house of Congress unlike with Russia/Iran/N.Korea which are still debatable in the US congress and are consideredas mere Irritants in some ways to be honest. So Russia/Iran(or even N.Korea/venezuela et ) can still get away with some things better than China.
The US sees China today as the Soviet Union back then, while the US sees Russia today as they saw China back in the 50s to 70s(I.e a smaller subordinate threat to their main opponent). We should not forget this crucial point. So we can't compare the two that will be a big mistake.

To be fair, I think the US administration is making a mistake here. China is not the Soviet Union or even Russia either in mindset, militarily, geo politically,ideologically or strategically.. China/CCP is more inward looking and business minded, they have no appetite for world(or even regional)domination/influence unlike the West and Russia(or even Iran). China will be 100% ok with the US remaining the world's dominant power or policeman as far as they are left alone and nobody meddles in their internal affairs and Taiwan... Even Xi Jinping made this known before to the US to reassure them..

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However I think the US adminastration has developed an unreasonable phobia of China which has led to a situation where they just refuse to believe otherwise, which is unfortunate and might actually lead to unintended consequences of that actually coming to be reality forced upon China to be one.

 

[tacoburger]

China unlike the other two countries(Russia/Iran etc) has far more to lose in the event of the slightest conflict/turmoil in Asia and the response from the US against China especially will be far more than what the US is doing against Russia in Ukraine since the US sees China as a far bigger challenge/rival/opponent than Russia by a wide margin.

Which is why there's no way America actually fights China head to head. We already see with Ukraine/Russia war that America and Europe already refuse to actually deploy their own troops, sent too much equipment or too advanced equipment or even permit Ukraine to strike too much at Russia's critical infrastructure in fear of nuclear escalation. This is even when it's pretty clear that NATO would easily trump Russia in a conventional conflict.

With a follow nuclear superpower that could win a conventional war vs America without having to resort to nukes, no way that they will actually dare to fight, not for the Philippines. Maybe for Taiwan or Japan, but not the Philippines. And America currently has to juggle Ukraine and Israel, China starting shit in the SCS is just gonna put increased pressure on America.

To be honest, I think China's leaders are quite pragmatic and level headed, not emotionam and hot headed like those in the Middle East or even Russia, who are quick to get involved in wars/conflicts/retaliate from any small provocations from their opponents in the U.S/West/Israel with negative long term consequences for their economy/country.

There's a big gap between starting a shooting war and driving up tensions with a live fire drill or seizing a Philippine's cargo ship or two. China just has to drive up tensions in the area and show that there's going to be major consequences for the Philippine bending the knee to America, rather than playing with water cannons.

To be fair, I think the US administration is making a mistake here. China is not the Soviet Union or even Russia either in mindset, militarily, geo politically,ideologically or strategically.. China/CCP is more inward looking and business minded, they have no appetite for world(or even regional)domination/influence unlike the West and Russia(or even Iran). China will be 100% ok with the US remaining the world's dominant power or policeman as far as they are left alone and nobody meddles in their internal affairs and Taiwan... Even Xi Jinping made this known before to the US to reassure them..however I think the US adminastrator has developed a phobia of China so much that it won't change much which is unfortunate.

It's just how world powers operate. Just look at how America treated Japan in the 70/80s when their economy was blooming and their technology was better in some ways to America. Trade wars, bad media coverage about how Japan was taking over the world, sanctions etc etc. And this was a vaunted American ally, they weren't even allowed to have a proper military. Once you become top dog, you want to stay top dog. China and America were always going to clash even if China was a liberal democracy that bend over for America.

 

[Michael90]

Which is why there's no way America actually fights China head to head. We already see with Ukraine/Russia war that America and Europe already refuse to actually deploy their own troops, sent too much equipment or too advanced equipment or even permit Ukraine to strike too much at Russia's critical infrastructure in fear of nuclear escalation. This is even when it's pretty clear that NATO would easily trump Russia in a conventional conflict.

With a follow nuclear superpower that could win a conventional war vs America without having to resort to nukes, no way that they will actually dare to fight, not for the Philippines. Maybe for Taiwan or Japan, but not the Philippines. And America currently has to juggle Ukraine and Israel, China starting shit in the SCS is just gonna put increased pressure on America

Yeah, I never said it will be a direct conflict/war per se. I said their reaction, actions and support will be far more deeper and larger than what they are doing in Ukraine. To be honest US support for Ukraine hasn't been as steadfast as one would expect or compared to what the US is really capable of(amd we all know US military capabilities/equipments is no joke,forget about what some people say). They haven't done nowhere as much as they can and even so there are several voices in the US calling for the US to stop or reduce even the little support they are providing to Ukraine against Russia since they want the US to focus solely on China who they see as the U.S real main threat/rival.

So what I mean is that in the event of a conflict in Asia that involves China the whole US establishment/parties will fully support that opponent to their fullest capabilities, it won't even be a question of debate in the US(unlike with the Ukriane war against Russia) as they have already built that fear mongering of China at home and even in other western countries. So the reaction will be far more than what we have seen in Ukraine. So it will make things more complicated for China . So I think Chinese leaders understand this and have factored this in their equation. That's what I mean. Can't compare US/western half assed actions in Ukraine vis a vis Russia with that of what will be in Asia involving China. That will be a big mistake. Its same reason the US pulled out of Afghanistan (Biden himself said that publicly, they want ro focus on China) and same reason US dorsnt want to get involved in any war with Iran/Israel( not like they are scared of lesser power as Iran). Lol It's all about China.

Moroever any conflict in Asia involving China will have far reaching effects on China than Russia/Iran do. Since China's economy is far more involved in trade with its Asian neighbours and the world than Russia and Iran can ever be, so it will have an impact on her economy far more. In fact the US actually wants this to happen even more than anyone, reason they keep provoking China and placing more and more missiles surrounding China all over China's neighbours and offering support to countries who have territorial dispute with China . Since in the event of a war they will be by far the biggest winners no matter the final outcome(and yes they will prolong that war for as long as possible).

 

[Africablack]

I don't think so..To be honest, I think China's leaders are quite pragmatic and level headed, not emotionam and hot headed like those in the Middle East or even Russia, who are quick to get involved in wars/conflicts/retaliate from any small provocations from their opponents in the U.S/West/Israel with negative long term consequences for their economy/country.

China unlike the other two countries(Russia/Iran etc) has far more to lose in the event of the slightest conflict/turmoil in Asia and the response from the US against China especially will be far more than what the US is doing against Russia in Ukraine since the US sees China as a far bigger challenge/rival/opponent than Russia by a wide margin..the US has designated China as its biggest threat/challenge and rival this century and this has bipartisan support in house of Congress unlike with Russia/Iran/N.Korea which are still debatable in the US congress and are consideredas mere Irritants in some ways to be honest. So Russia/Iran(or even N.Korea/venezuela et ) can still get away with some things better than China.
The US sees China today as the Soviet Union back then, while the US sees Russia today as they saw China back in the 50s to 70s(I.e a smaller subordinate threat to their main opponent). We should not forget this crucial point. So we can't compare the two that will be a big mistake.

To be fair, I think the US administration is making a mistake here. China is not the Soviet Union or even Russia either in mindset, militarily, geo politically,ideologically or strategically.. China/CCP is more inward looking and business minded, they have no appetite for world(or even regional)domination/influence unlike the West and Russia(or even Iran). China will be 100% ok with the US remaining the world's dominant power or policeman as far as they are left alone and nobody meddles in their internal affairs and Taiwan... Even Xi Jinping made this known before to the US to reassure them..

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However I think the US adminastration has developed an unreasonable phobia of China which has led to a situation where they just refuse to believe otherwise, which is unfortunate and might actually lead to unintended consequences of that actually coming to be reality forced upon China to be one.

You really believe that? While I agree that China doesn't want to be a hegemonic power, it doesn't want the US to be the global hegemon. I believe China prefers for the world to be multipolar/multilateral. Western mindset can't understand this because they have an adversarial culture and so they project on China.

 

[montyp165]

Yeah, I never said it will be a direct conflict/war per se. I said their reaction, actions and support will be far more deeper and larger than what they are doing in Ukraine. To be honest US support for Ukraine hasn't been as steadfast as one would expect or compared to what the US is really capable of(amd we all know US military capabilities/equipments is no joke,forget about what some people say). They haven't done nowhere as much as they can and even so there are several voices in the US calling for the US to stop or reduce even the little support they are providing to Ukraine against Russia since they want the US to focus solely on China who they see as the U.S real main threat/rival.

So what I mean is that in the event of a conflict in Asia that involves China the whole US establishment/parties will fully support that opponent to their fullest capabilities, it won't even be a question of debate in the US(unlike with the Ukriane war against Russia) as they have already built that fear mongering of China at home and even in other western countries. So the reaction will be far more than what we have seen in Ukraine. So it will make things more complicated for China . So I think Chinese leaders understand this and have factored this in their equation. That's what I mean. Can't compare US/western half assed actions in Ukraine vis a vis Russia with that of what will be in Asia involving China. That will be a big mistake. Its same reason the US pulled out of Afghanistan (Biden himself said that publicly, they want ro focus on China) and same reason US dorsnt want to get involved in any war with Iran/Israel( not like they are scared of lesser power as Iran). Lol It's all about China.

Moroever any conflict in Asia involving China will have far reaching effects on China than Russia/Iran do. Since China's economy is far more involved in trade with its Asian neighbours and the world than Russia and Iran can ever be, so it will have an impact on her economy far more. In fact the US actually wants this to happen even more than anyone, reason they keep provoking China and placing more and more missiles surrounding China all over China's neighbours and offering support to countries who have territorial dispute with China . Since in the event of a war they will be by far the biggest winners no matter the final outcome(and yes they will prolong that war for as long as possible).

The moment US starts a war with China it will only end with the destruction of the United States, as at this point China has the capacity to do to the US what the US did to Imperial Japan in addition to being able to fully arm and equip Russia, Iran and North Korea simultaneously. This capacity difference will only grow clearer in the next 16 months.

 

[Sardaukar20]

Naah. It's definitely intentional. Considering the circumstances, this is definitely as political as can get.

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During the Balikatan, there is also an island assault exercise. No prizes as to what that is intended for.

GT is not having any of it:

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The Philippine military first publicly announced that in the "sinking exercise" segment, the retired Philippine Navy replenishment tanker "BRP Lake Caliraya" would be selected as the target. This ship was originally manufactured in China and was used by Philippine enterprises as a civilian oil tanker. It is the Philippines' only "Chinese-made naval asset." The Philippine military also firmly stated that this decision was "not intentional" and does not signify any specific country.

Childish by the PH and it's master. Can't face China in a real fight. So it resorts to sinking a recently decommissioned Chinese-made ship in its inventory.

Perhaps China should do its own live fire exercise in the SCS later. Complete with sinking a derelict target ship and island assaults. To show that the PLAN can do those too, and do them better.