China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Micron]

LOL everything may changed overnight if Donald Trump gets re-elected and comes to power next year.
Marco Jr's Philippines will be all alone on their own.
ASEAN nations are already shunning him as they all knows the consequences of befriending USA, it is fatal.

 

[Peas]

Marco Jr's Philippines reminds me of Yultong meme

 

[BlackWindMnt]

LOL everything may changed overnight if Donald Trump gets re-elected and comes to power next year.
Marco Jr's Philippines will be all alone on their own.
ASEAN nations are already shunning him as they all knows the consequences of befriending USA, it is fatal.

I don't know Trump is usually a yes men when it comes to US imperial goals.
You could see it very clearly during his first term as president.

Trump was the one that did send one billion dollars to Ukraine and allowed heavy weapons platforms to be sold to Ukraine.
Something Obama didn't do during his term, if i'm not mistaken. Given US really wants to focus on Asia having secured west and central Europe i don't think buying more grains from US farmer will do it this time in 2025 to keep Trump and the US distracted.

 

[ansy1968]

I don't know Trump is usually a yes men when it comes to US imperial goals.
You could see it very clearly during his first term as president.

Had to Give credit to Trump though, he stop the CIA planned Colored Revolution against Duterte and recall US Ambassador Goldberg.

 

[luncheonham]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1773627104229498997

This profile and account appeared to have been created back in January of 2022, the same year and month "her" FB account was also created and perhaps other social media sites/applications as well. However, as my interest on this person piqued my curiosity I started digging into who this person (if she even actually exists) and if she's not a deep fake, an artificial creation in tandem with the rise/presidency of President Marcos Jr.

My reasoning for this is that this lady who's name is supposed to be THEA TAN appears to be a very well-read, highly attuned to policy, politics, and very good with framing and articulating the arguments in support of her views and the candidate this figure clearly is PROPPING UP: MARCOS JR.

That thread alone defending point by point the argument against Chinese claims and interpretation of the PCA ruling in favour of the PH against China will give an objective person a view that this THEA TAN knows her shit, appears to understand and how to interpret an intentional tribunal's ruling. A talented SOPHIST.

I am of the opinion that this figure is an artificially created entity established and created to foment, misinform, disinform and provide the sophisticated defense of the Marcos regime and the attack dog against Filipinos that are pro, neutral, objective with their opinions and stances on anything China related, especially when it comes to the SCS issue. It's not even inconceivable that this figure was created by a certain 3 letter western agency for the exact purposes I mentioned.

Consider the following: THE SAME "THEA TAN" at least from this QUORA page never once posted anything SCS related, China discussions pro or against. She did not even discussed any political topics, issues etc. This page talked about business related issues, personal development topics, hokey stuff.

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She does not have any video appearances on any of the platforms I searched. For a person that supposed to be one of the, if not the go-to-person when it comes to the China vs U.S. (PH) issue she never avails herself in a video format. And for a person that's always online on all of the social media platforms spewing her commentaries, arguments she appears to be shy to be seen on camera. What gives?

@ansy1968 and many other Chinese-pinoys and Filipinos on this forum I am certain you have heard and seen of this character. Have you guys seen her on T.V. or any other social media platforms talking about the very topic she's clearly so very passionate about?

She's either a paid propagandist or a blackmailed victim ...

 

[Wrought]

Couple of updates from Marcos after he returned from Washington. US base access will not be expanded further, and treaty obligations will only be invoked if deaths occur. Needless to say, no deaths have occurred thus far and CCG has plenty of ways to apply pressure without killing people.

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My interpretation is that the Americans told him they have no appetite to add another mess on top of Ukraine and Israel, with support limited to PR exercises like statements and summits. So existing CCG activity (blocking, water cannons) is tacitly accepted, despite all the Filipino complaints. Current pressure should be continued and dialed up slowly, if necessary. Incremental progress is the way to go.

 

[ansy1968]

Couple of updates from Marcos after he returned from Washington. US base access will not be expanded further, and treaty obligations will only be invoked if deaths occur. Needless to say, no deaths have occurred thus far and CCG has plenty of ways to apply pressure without killing people.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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My interpretation is that the Americans told him they have no appetite to add another mess on top of Ukraine and Israel, with support limited to PR exercises like statements and summits. So existing CCG activity (blocking, water cannons) is tacitly accepted, despite all the Filipino complaints. Current pressure should be continued and dialed up slowly, if necessary. Incremental progress is the way to go.

The MDT agreement between the US and the Philippine doesn't include the SCS PERIOD. Marcos want to make it a Modus Vivendi BUT the US won't listen, why should they, they have gotten what they want from us for cheap.

Look most us here don't want to sacrifice and die for the Marcos Family and the oligarch in the SCS. China isn't dumb enough to invade a shithole country and inherit its problem, those noisy armchair warrior you heard and read from the internet had too much time on their hand, cause they doesn't have a job and they live with their rich parents.

 

[Overbom]

US base access will not be expanded further, and treaty obligations will only be invoked if deaths occur. Needless to say, no deaths have occurred thus far and CCG has plenty of ways to apply pressure without killing people.

It's quite easy to cause deaths when glass fragments start flying left and right. One glass fragment flying to the neck or artery and RIP. Water cannon is not non-lethal, I prefer to call it less-lethal instead

 

[vincent]

Couple of updates from Marcos after he returned from Washington. US base access will not be expanded further, and treaty obligations will only be invoked if deaths occur. Needless to say, no deaths have occurred thus far and CCG has plenty of ways to apply pressure without killing people.

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My interpretation is that the Americans told him they have no appetite to add another mess on top of Ukraine and Israel, with support limited to PR exercises like statements and summits. So existing CCG activity (blocking, water cannons) is tacitly accepted, despite all the Filipino complaints. Current pressure should be continued and dialed up slowly, if necessary. Incremental progress is the way to go.

The way I read the “death” thing is a death or two is gonna happen.

 

[Wrought]

It's quite easy to cause deaths when glass fragments start flying left and right. One glass fragment flying to the neck or artery and RIP. Water cannon is not non-lethal, I prefer to call it less-lethal instead

Of course, if they are actively looking for an excuse to start shooting then sure an accidental death from glass fragments would provide one. But if an excuse is all they wanted, they could've just used the current confrontations as reason enough. The MDT text does not specify deaths anywhere; that's the specific interpretation chosen today.

It's a political issue, not a legal one. And politically, my interpretation is that the US is trying to avoid another mess. So if an accident happens it will be treated as an accident, not as an excuse to start shooting. Accidents, even accidental deaths, have happened in the past without leading to war. For example, the fishermen near Kinmen. That's not to say there are no risks, but there's never no risks.