I think Philippines won again here, China pretended nothing happened. Philippines definitely cut something, which mostly likely belonged to China or its fisherman.
China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
I read China FM's statement and CCG's statement, but it's not very convincing. As a neutral observer when you see a video of the phillippines coast guard cutting the end of a floating barrier which looks exactly like the one that China deployed, the Filipino story seems more convincing.
The only way I don't see China losing in this incident is if China can show, or if observers can reasonably infer that the phillippines setup up their own barrier in an uncontested water and cut their own rope. Anything less would be a Lose in my book.
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You set a very high bar for China. If the Phillippines made the show in a private place, how could CCG have caught it for evidence? In this case, we have to choose one side to believe.
What I can agree with you is that once again China did not win on propaganda. It's kind of expected given China's passive and reactive approach in SCS recently. It does not really matter though. The PH government might be able to fanfare frenzy up a notch or two at home with this clown show, but what seriously can it achieve for them? China does not really care.
Yes the bar I set was pretty high, but that's because Philippines already propagandized the barrier earlier. But honestly China should (probably) have some sort of aerial or satellite footage of Philippines directing the show if it was really the case.
I still don't buy China's story, and even if I did I'm sure China won't release any proof of Philippines directing the show that to the dismay of many and would rather let the PH government use this as an off ramp.
I doubt it will materialize. Both the US and Vietnam are likely not sincere on this. The trust isn't just there between them.
Even if the deal does go through, it will take years to deliver. And Vietnamese will have a lot to change for their new toys. I'd wager that these F16s won't be operational by VPAF until 2030 at the earliest. Guess how many J20s and J35s PLA will be flying around Vietnam by then?
And how does F16, even the V model, compare to the Su30s that VPAF is operating, and the better Russian-made fighters such as Su35s that Vietnam can acquire more likely?
I wouldn't be worried by these F16s. Neither would STC.
Taiwan has F-16s and full western gear since the 1940's, yet they still don't even have enough parts to maintain their F-16s.
How much harder is it for Vietnam to maintain only F-16s and no other western gear?
As an example, Vietnam will need to stock both SAE and ISO fasteners instead of ISO alone since all US planes are built and designed in inches/feet while every other country uses metric. They're not compatible.
Vietnam is preparing the groundworks to buy F-16. Hopefully the CPC won't be stupid enough to blindly trust the vietnamese again.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Please use your knowledge and common sense.
Firstly, in the Philippino comedy sketch, they had two guys in a tiny rowboat with a motor. Just how much range do you think such a tiny craft can have? From where would they have been able to set off to even reach the floating barrier with that range?
Secondly, the tiny anchor and rope they cut would not have kept anything remotely as large as the floating barrier in place.
It looks like a couple of guys went a few hundred metres out from shore, dropped an anchor and length of rope that they brought with them, and then filmed themselves cutting the rope. There were zero recognisable features in the footage to show where it was shot, no shots or helpless Chinese coast guards looking on clutching pearls, and not even a DJI aero shot of the defeated barrier drifting off into the sunset. If this was real, you think the Philippines would not have made sure they got all that on camera to brag about?
This is just a fictional low budget, low effort fake that could have been shot at almost any beach in the Philippines, and it’s easily identifiable as such.
When someone makes a big claim, the burden of proof is on them to prove it. This film doesn’t prove anything other than two guys cut the rope attached to an anchor and recovered it.