China's SCS Strategy Thread

BoraTas

Major
Registered Member
Do you have any strategy recommendation for China right now? The current do nothing approach clearly isn't working.
They could harass the Filipino personnel on the ship harder. Other than that, I see no point in further escalation. SCS's resources are not very important for China. The sea is already a PLA kill zone. And the others can't enforce their claims either. If that rusty wreck is so important to China (it is not) what Chinese outposts like this are then?

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If China withdrawn its claims that would be a humiliation, but it won't.
 

zbb

Junior Member
Registered Member
They could harass the Filipino personnel on the ship harder. Other than that, I see no point in further escalation. SCS's resources are not very important for China. The sea is already a PLA kill zone. And the others can't enforce their claims either. If that rusty wreck is so important to China (it is not) what Chinese outposts like this are then?
This point is missed by many. SCS is critically important to China as a sea lane. China's main interest in the SCS is to keep the sea lanes open and safe for civilian shipping.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Probably an upgrade of ties to comprehensive strategic partnership. Important to note that Vietnam already has CSP with China&Russia so U.S. is actually playing catch up.

Apparently there will be an agreement on rare earths as well.
Vietnam is handing out CSP these days pretty easily. Doesn't really mean much.

As for rare earths, they were never that rare. The issue is not access to rare earths, but having expertise to actually refine & process them and tune them into magnet. Things that DC blob can never fully appreciate, because they think the entire world is just about smash and grab.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
The former Filipino leaders worked so hard to get rid of the bases... then Mt Pintatubo lent a hand... now they're back in again.
When family wealth and inheritance are on the line, you may change your mind as well, especially when you're part of the oligarchy. It takes 20 years for the father to gather those illegal hidden wealth and it's the duty of the son to maintain it. ;)
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
What do you want them to do exactly? The current tactic of "I'm not touching you" and water cannon is the maximum that a coast guard should be doing. Overtly placing trade restrictions for a territory disputes will also alienate other SCS nations, China has limited options here.

They can only increase the cost of a Phillipines resupply operation, not stop it completely if they choose to run the gauntlet since the only other way would be kinetic.
Garrison troops on disputed territory like Philipine is doing is worse.

What are they going to do if China block ALL supply? Nothing.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
I would not recommend anything more aggressive beyond the current approach being practice and observe by the PLAN, Chinese Coast Guard. There's too much downside for humiliating a country like the Philippines - which countries in the west would simply rally with due to the size and power differential between the two countries. It's rather foolish for anyone to expect China to take a more aggressive measure which can lead to unforeseen events that frankly will cause unnecessary distraction from the most important objective which is about Taiwan. The Philippines is just a willing pawn being used against China as an annoyance and also being used as sort of a probing attack to gauge the response time, actions and countermeasures that PLA undertakes on those type of events. At least that's what the U.S. military must be trying to do.

Emotionally speaking, I would wish for China to show the Philippines their place but that's not really saying or accomplishing much to begin with. @coolgod aren't we just simply looking for some Emotional satisfaction rather than what's strategic?
I am going to argue that asserting oneself does opposite of what you claim. It will make the neighboring opportunist politician think twice before embarassing themselves.

Much like Vietnam and India, a limited confrontation creates longer peace not shorter. You know what creates long discontent? Unresolved disputes. That's real strategic thinking. Best part unlike India and Vietnam, there is no shooting involved. Just block supply and they leave.
 
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