On Sep. 8th, China and the Philippines respectively issued statements on the latest "resupply" incident at Second Thomas Shoal that day.
China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
Videos from the Sept 8th incident. When is China going to do something, or keep pretend nothing is going on? The SCS code of conduct isn't getting signed this year, doesn't look like China is pulling a win from SCS this year.
The problem here is you aren't stopping a resupply vessel without at least causing a collision. Which is lethal force undoubtedly.
I am not sure if China wants to introduce lethal force or would benefit from that. Political cost might be big.
What do you want them to do exactly? The current tactic of "I'm not touching you" and water cannon is the maximum that a coast guard should be doing. Overtly placing trade restrictions for a territory disputes will also alienate other SCS nations, China has limited options here.
They can only increase the cost of a Phillipines resupply operation, not stop it completely if they choose to run the gauntlet since the only other way would be kinetic.
They can only increase the cost of a Phillipines resupply operation, not stop it completely if they choose to run the gauntlet since the only other way would be kinetic.
Chinese media/commentators have been telling the Chinese the whole year that everything is ok, SCS code of conduct will be signed this year, small annoyances are within China's plan. It's reassuring but unfortunately it's not true. Vietnam and Philippines will both side with US militarily and side with China economically. Philippines with keep pissing over China's red lines while Vietnam focuses on militarizing the islands when Philippines is keeping China busy in the SCS.
Do you have any strategy recommendation for China right now? The current do nothing approach clearly isn't working.
Last edited:
I would not recommend anything more aggressive beyond the current approach being practice and observe by the PLAN, Chinese Coast Guard. There's too much downside for humiliating a country like the Philippines - which countries in the west would simply rally with due to the size and power differential between the two countries. It's rather foolish for anyone to expect China to take a more aggressive measure which can lead to unforeseen events that frankly will cause unnecessary distraction from the most important objective which is about Taiwan. The Philippines is just a willing pawn being used against China as an annoyance and also being used as sort of a probing attack to gauge the response time, actions and countermeasures that PLA undertakes on those type of events. At least that's what the U.S. military must be trying to do.
Emotionally speaking, I would wish for China to show the Philippines their place but that's not really saying or accomplishing much to begin with. @coolgod aren't we just simply looking for some Emotional satisfaction rather than what's strategic?
Tbh they can always just let loose maritime militia in fishing boats, plausible deniability and they can even get aggressive without involving coastguard, however that will cause the opinion of SCS nation to straight nosedive, likely causing more harm then good in the long term.
More effective strategy might be actually to back off, use propaganda to get a pro China leader into Philippines, since elections seem not really based on policy but cult of personality.
May be just buy off those islands. Provide economic aid and settle the disput.
You think China's "propaganda" can beat CIA's decades of cultivation in the Philippines?
If it is trending towards not ok, China would begin new moves.
There's no indication whatsoever Vietnam would ever side with US, let alone "militarily", except in the pot and fentanyl addled cope brains among US nationalists. US hasn't even gotten to third base with Vietnam by getting joint exercises. Meanwhile China had joint exercises with fucking Thailand, given the way some posters talk about US getting routine drills with some SEA countries does that now mean Thailand is a stalwart military ally of China who can be counted on to fight the US? Learn how to be less gullible, please.
The Philippines is isolated in their desire to start a war in the SCS. They're also poorly defended. China just needs to hook Indonesia and Vietnam closer, and then wait for the Philippines to commit a major misstep, allowing China to use force. To deal with the colonized, you need to use maximum force and establish your own imperial control over them. Only then will you win their hearts, because they're not free thinkers, rather they bend to strong authority only.
The current Chinese government is in many ways not mature enough when it comes to fulfilling China's imperial needs. But this is a failing of personality and of having too many doves in the government, which can be fixed easily with time. As the threat profile around China ramps up, the population and the government will naturally throw out the appeasers and allow politicians who advocate for China first to take their spots.