China's SCS Strategy Thread

[davidau]

China always knew that Philippines was under America's thumb which is why it never made any big investment there even when Duterte was in power and was basically begging Xi to do so

very good foresight on China's part

 

[Inque]

It's the South China Sea

This logic doesn't work, otherwise India would own the entire Indian Ocean and Japan the Sea of Japan.

 

[tphuang]

This is a really dumb move politically. As @RobertC points out the next question PCG will ask is, is water cannon an armed attack?

If yes: so is US going to do anything about it under MDT? If not US is a paper tiger
If no: it's now open season for CCG water cannon crew

This is a question that is best left intentionally vague, but now people will ask it.

it's not an armed attack and nobody in America is thinking about this right now. Unless you live here, it's hard for people to probably understand how little America cares about most of southeast Asia.

This is the only major news on China geopolitics today
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Their message isn't heard or being ignored in Beijing, so those veiled threat is nothing but a used toilet paper.

Their strategy is to gang up on Beijing using international pressure, they didn't calculate the potential China respond, in today's situation with the Ukraine war, the West narrative is being questioned and that lessen the chances of war in the SCS as other's in the ASEAN remained neutral.

The reason is very simple, it's our backyard and even Japan don't want the crisis to escalate.

and it should continue being heard and ignored, because only the politicians in Phillippines give a shit about it

 

[plawolf]

This logic doesn't work, otherwise India would own the entire Indian Ocean and Japan the Sea of Japan.

They would have if they had Chinese economic, industrial and military might and the independent political will to use it to advance their own core interests.

The issue isn’t merely one of distance, but also raw military hard power and escalation dominance.

If the USN tries any shit in the SCS, China has the raw military might to make the offending fleet new coral reefs. That’s what makes the SCS China’s lake, and why the same isn’t the case for India or Japan.

 

[Biscuits]

I have made prior statements and sort of prediction that the potential conflict in that part of the world will not be ignited by the separatists from Taiwan but rather the pig headed actions of the Filipinos hell bent on testing the patience of the PLA/China and its Supreme overconfidence with U.S. defense treaty and romanticized history of WWII with MacArthur's "I shall return" spiel that's been immortalized and engraved to every Filipinos. The Filipinos think of themselves as the 52nd state of the U.S. rather comically. I mean, have you seen how the elites of that country swallow every American propaganda as gospel truth.

A war in the Philippines would also be safer for global tension than a war in China.

If China had to fight an offensive war against the Philippines, it would be much much more politically expensive for China than fighting a defensive war against US and Japan.

This is actually a conflict where giving up would be ok with at least some of the Chinese public, because it would not involve the homeland.

So I do think part of the nationalists in US want to backtrack from their claims in China and start a "safe" war in the SCS and over Philippines instead, which plays more to US' strengths than an all out attack on eastern China would be.

The problem is that while Ukraine had preexisting stocks, Philippines have literally nothing. It's much easier to fight with civilian vehicles on land than building a competitive navy from scratch with nothing. There's also a massive difference in firepower and ISR between China and Russia as well.

The massive military and civilian-infrastructure investment that would be needed to make Philippines capable of holding out for more than a few weeks just doesn't exist for now.

If conflict is coming, it would be decade(s) down the road.

 

[ansy1968]

A war in the Philippines would also be safer for global tension than a war in China.

If China had to fight an offensive war against the Philippines, it would be much much more politically expensive for China than fighting a defensive war against US and Japan.

This is actually a conflict where giving up would be ok with at least some of the Chinese public, because it would not involve the homeland.

So I do think part of the nationalists in US want to backtrack from their claims in China and start a "safe" war in the SCS and over Philippines instead, which plays more to US' strengths than an all out attack on eastern China would be.

The problem is that while Ukraine had preexisting stocks, Philippines have literally nothing. It's much easier to fight with civilian vehicles on land than building a competitive navy from scratch with nothing. There's also a massive difference in firepower and ISR between China and Russia as well.

The massive military and civilian-infrastructure investment that would be needed to make Philippines capable of holding out for more than a few weeks just doesn't exist for now.

If conflict is coming, it would be decade(s) down the road.

Bro its a nuisance, nothing will come out of it, NO WAR in SCS and even in Taiwan, the US just want to poke the Panda and they're lucky the animal is timid unlike the bear who unleashed its paw.

 

[duskseeker]

Bro its a nuisance, nothing will come out of it, NO WAR in SCS and even in Taiwan, the US just want to poke the Panda and they're lucky the animal is timid unlike the bear who unleashed its paw.

nah I see Marcos going for a war then running to USA. This is a man who was brought up thinking only the west can lead, even their national heroes thought only the west can lead. They are not aware of their neighbors, they dont even know why Indonesia joined BRICS what's Malaysia's claims to Sabah are about or why North and South Korea had a civil war. All they know is Russia, China and friends bad. They even cheered for Nazis even to this day without knowing what a Nazi is.

 

[duskseeker]

Suppose the US sends an Air carrier group to resupply that rust bucket, What will China do?

 

[RobertC]

Suppose the US sends an Air carrier group to resupply that rust bucket, What will China do?

The integrated PLAN-CCG-MM will flood the zone with hundreds of ships. Most of which will be MM ships operating singly and in groups, often tied together. Many of those MM ships have strengthened hulls specifically for shouldering operations. Nearby will be CCG ships, many of which also have hulls strengthened for the same purpose. Just over the horizon will be the PLAN ships.

The USN will have to run the thicket of constantly maneuvering as well as static MM ships. If the USN begins to gain a beneficial position there will be ship-to-ship contact. In which case the CCG will engage on a law enforcement basis. But that contact is unlikely to happen as US shipyards already have multi-year backlogs for ship repairs and maintenance.

South China Sea [pace tankphobia]

 

[tphuang]

nah I see Marcos going for a war then running to USA. This is a man who was brought up thinking only the west can lead, even their national heroes thought only the west can lead. They are not aware of their neighbors, they dont even know why Indonesia joined BRICS what's Malaysia's claims to Sabah are about or why North and South Korea had a civil war. All they know is Russia, China and friends bad. They even cheered for Nazis even to this day without knowing what a Nazi is.

There won't be a war over phillipines. Again, nobody cares about this in America.

People have to stop focusing so much on certain Chinese social media account or Filipino media. This story has so little mileage behind it.