China's SCS Strategy Thread

[tankphobia]

Wooing countries that are deeply entrenched with fascism, such as Singapore, Indonesia and Philippines (in particular the first 2) will not work unless China devotes very heavy effort on them, but given the global situation, the effort is better spent ensuring that neutrals stay on China's side as well as building up new directions such as Russia or Iran.

I think that's especially dangerous in the case of Indonesia, where CIA sponsored anti-chinese pogrom is still within living memory... It would take some effort, but with global opinion/media the way that it is and a little push from the CIA, I fear that any action from the Chinese side will be strongly constrained by caution against inviting violent action against the local Chinese communities.

 

[han1289]

Don’t waste time with these SEA countries. Draw America into another middle eastern war that they can’t stay out of (say, Iran/Israel) and buy China another 5 years of time. A 2028 PLAN will make these countries fall in line because they go the way the wind blows anyway.

 

[plawolf]

People need to understand the reason and game plan of the US with the Philippines move in order to better determine how best to counter for China.

The obvious Chinese counter is to reclaim Scarborough Shoal, but that is not without risks and costs. The biggest cost is that by reclaiming Scarborough, China will in effect lock the Philippines in the American camp since the island, once reclaimed, cannot be undone or handed over to the Philippines. And with a Chinese fortress so close, it will be all but impossible for future Philippines leaders to distance themselves from the Americans, and indeed, the obvious counter for the Philippines would be to allow more US military deployments and bases access. And I think that’s precisely what the Americans actually want and planned with this move. Because they couldn’t care less about the security or wellbeing of the Philippines, indeed, they want the Philippines to have a shitty security situation so they feel desperate enough to accept the Americans back as ‘protectors’ whereas right now most people in the Philippines don’t want to be involved in the coming fight between the US and China.

This is why I don’t think the immediate Chinese response would be to reclaim Scarborough. Instead the response may be more measured, for example, Chinese coast guard can effectively close off the shoal to Philippines fishermen indefinitely and other diplomatic and economic punishments.

I would look further north for China’s next big push back, to Pratas/Dongsha island.

China isn’t going to Crimea Dongsha island, but there isn’t much Taiwan or the US can do if China just build its own brand new mega island on the same shoal as Dongsha island, perhaps as part of the response to a future new US House Speaker visit to Taiwan.

A new island base there would effectively nullify any and all practical military value US bases in the Philippines will have in a shooting war and is entirely outside of the concern of the rest of ASEAN never mind anyone else.

 

[TK3600]

There is no loyalty in this game; those countries that ultimately acquiesced to American demands were not being loyal or there would never have been the commotion at all. America simply uses a corruption + dollar dominance formula to coerce its victims which means that only a very few countries have the muscle and spine to tell America "No, and you can't change my mind." Everyone else would get crushed if America escalated its sanctions and for a country that is economically, technologically and militarily irrelevent like the Philipines, not much escalation is needed at all before it's way more than they can handle. If anything, America is struggling more and more, publically even, to get its vassals on board and that is due to a combination of the rise in China's counterweight and the desperation against this new China that has made American demands increasingly invasive and difficult to accept.

I refuse to accept the narrative of "America is invinsible and threaten anyone to obey". Duterte would have died 20 times. The Philipine thing is Marcos cooperating willfully or corruption involved. Either way they had agency to choose and they made a choice.

People need to understand the reason and game plan of the US with the Philippines move in order to better determine how best to counter for China.

The obvious Chinese counter is to reclaim Scarborough Shoal, but that is not without risks and costs. The biggest cost is that by reclaiming Scarborough, China will in effect lock the Philippines in the American camp since the island, once reclaimed, cannot be undone or handed over to the Philippines. And with a Chinese fortress so close, it will be all but impossible for future Philippines leaders to distance themselves from the Americans, and indeed, the obvious counter for the Philippines would be to allow more US military deployments and bases access. And I think that’s precisely what the Americans actually want and planned with this move. Because they couldn’t care less about the security or wellbeing of the Philippines, indeed, they want the Philippines to have a shitty security situation so they feel desperate enough to accept the Americans back as ‘protectors’ whereas right now most people in the Philippines don’t want to be involved in the coming fight between the US and China.

This is why I don’t think the immediate Chinese response would be to reclaim Scarborough. Instead the response may be more measured, for example, Chinese coast guard can effectively close off the shoal to Philippines fishermen indefinitely and other diplomatic and economic punishments.

I would look further north for China’s next big push back, to Pratas/Dongsha island.

China isn’t going to Crimea Dongsha island, but there isn’t much Taiwan or the US can do if China just build its own brand new mega island on the same shoal as Dongsha island, perhaps as part of the response to a future new US House Speaker visit to Taiwan.

A new island base there would effectively nullify any and all practical military value US bases in the Philippines will have in a shooting war and is entirely outside of the concern of the rest of ASEAN never mind anyone else.

Exactly. Just like American base it cannot be undone as a leverage. Fortressing Scarborough shore cannot be undone. Doing so is making same mistaks as Philipine. The retaliation should stay on economic side. This way at anytime they change their mind the situation is reversed. Never copy someone who is less skilled than you.

 

[ansy1968]

I refuse to accept the narrative of "America is invinsible and threaten anyone to obey". Duterte would have died 20 times. The Philipine thing is Marcos cooperating willfully or corruption involved. Either way they had agency to choose and they made a choice.

Remember Marcos hidden wealth, well the American seizes some of it and they know where the others was stored. We should be mindful that it maybe use as leverage.

Exactly. Just like American base it cannot be undone as a leverage. Fortressing Scarborough shore cannot be undone. Doing so is making same mistaks as Philipine. The retaliation should stay on economic side. This way at anytime they change their mind the situation is reversed. Never copy someone who is less skilled than you.

Right on bro, never allow yourself to be corrupted by Instant Gratification, that drug is dangerous, making you become a hysterical irrational person bereft of intelligence...lol

 

[Jono]

Playing Go brings many long-term strategic benefits, but the Americans are not stupid, they know this Chinese strategy perfectly well and are playing it to their advantage, so apparently always acting one step ahead of China.
why not mix Go and Chess, and surprise the Americans once in a while? If your opponent can always anticipate your moves, you are lost already before you begin.
I would say reclaiming Huangyan Shoal is one Chess move, and once commenced, will force the PH Government to the negotiation table, and the pace of the reclamation can be used as a bargaining point. China will take the initiative, and if the average Filipino citizens are pissed off, so what! That's the price to pay when you align totally with the US at the expense of China and also serves as a message/warning to the rest of ASEAN countries too...
Let the Americans come to the PH, and before long, judging by past track records, these high-handed and haughty soldiers will begin abusing the locals, so much for Pax Americana.
if you think hard about it, there isn't much American forces on PH soil can do against China, it is only a bluff that China can use to its own advantage.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Don’t waste time with these SEA countries. Draw America into another middle eastern war that they can’t stay out of (say, Iran/Israel) and buy China another 5 years of time. A 2028 PLAN will make these countries fall in line because they go the way the wind blows anyway.

Any major war in the Middle East between Iran and Israel with US support is going to rope in Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf States, sooner or later.

Once that happens, the global oil market is going to suffer from massive waves of tsunami, since most of the oil wells, oil refinery plants and port facilities in the region would become legitimate targets for all the forces involved in the conflict.

In this context, China does have cordial relations with Russia and Venezuela, both of which are the largest oil producers in the world. Hence, at least China has one less problem to worry about sourcing oil.

However, China's current Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) capacity can only last around 50 days. That is barely more than 1 month-worth of oil stockpile, and still way, way below that of the safe level set by the International Energy Agency, i.e. 90 days (3 months)-worth of oil reserve stockpile.

For comparison, the US' SPR can last around 150 days (5 months), and Japan's SPR can last a whooping 220 days (more than 7 months). So I think China has a ton of work to do to safeguard her oil resource security.

 

[Temstar]

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Here comes the squeeze in response to the 4 bases. CCG and militia ships buzzing a Philippine navy ship.

Here's the thing: as CCG and PAFMM put the squeeze on Philippines can USN do anything to prevent this? If not then the question in the mind of other ASEAN members will be "then what good is getting close to US?"

I suppose USN could try to sail even more Burke through SCS and get another taste of "you fight with your atomic bombs and I fight with my hand grenade" People's War shananagen.

 

[vincent]

For comparison, the US' SPR can last around 150 days (5 months)

Before or after Biden’s selloff last year?

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Before or after Biden’s selloff last year?

Before.

Though the stated capacities are through assuming that the SPRs are fully loaded when all imports and inputs are cut-off.