China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Blackstone]

I thought it's has been mention many times that it's all the islands inside the dash lines that are China's claim not the water itself. A lot of those islands are small and hard to see on a map from that scale.

US should periodically send a good portion of the 7th Fleet into the 9-dash bull crap, roam all over the place, and conduct exercises with allies. China having any ideas of 9-dash line being 'blue national soil' must be strangled in the crib.

 

[texx1]

US should periodically send a good portion of the 7th Fleet into the 9-dash bull crap, roam all over the place, and conduct exercises with allies. China having any ideas of 9-dash line being 'blue national soil' must be strangled in the crib.

If that happened a lot, we probably wouldn't see PLAN ships at RIMPAC or Hawaii for a long time.

 

[xiabonan]

Dear all, I think as a Chinese I want to share some of my experiences, knowledge and feelings on this new map.

First, regarding what's the true purpose of those dashed lines, as far as I know, there's really not a firm ground by the Chinese government. Or rather I should say that the definition is very ambiguous. All that the government has been saying is that there has been historical and legal evidence supporting the existence of such 9(or 10) dashed lines, but what exactly does it mean? Does it mean that the waters belong to us? Does it mean the islands belong to us? Or does it mean it's EEZ? Or does it represent a whole new definition came up by us? In fact I've taken notice when the government and state-owned media talk about the 9 dashed lines, almost without exception this ambiguity is there. And I think it's there deliberately, and for very good reasons.

The ambiguity leaves much room for either more aggressive claims or backing down in terms of claims.

This is not the case with, say, Diaoyu islands. Our ground has been firm that those islands are our territory though there's a dispute. We even published coordinates of territorial waters around the Diaoyu islands. You can see that's not the case with the 9 dashed lines. Even for the Paracels and Spratly which were all inside the 9-dashed lines, the official way of claiming them is really different though the difference is not all so that obvious. You can call it playing with words but this accurate articulation does make a lot of difference when solid evidence is needed for, say, international court.

Another personal experience I want share is about this new map. Maps do make a lot of differences. From very young I've been looking at our map with Taiwan in it, and it just so deeply engraved in my brain that no matter what Taiwan is part of our territory (of course this is also due to other branches of the education and public media as a whole), so even now when I've seen countless maps of China without Taiwan (that's again, by the Western media), I still feel uncomfortable about it. I've been to Taiwan before and I know there's vast differences but that doesn't change the deep belief that it's part of our territory, just unclaimed yet.

The purpose of me saying all these is just to demonstrate my point that maps do change a lot of things, sometimes unconsciously. Imagine when a new generation of Chinese kids growing up looking at this new map, their feeling towards the SCS would be greatly different from the previous generations.

 

[joshuatree]

US should periodically send a good portion of the 7th Fleet into the 9-dash bull crap, roam all over the place, and conduct exercises with allies. China having any ideas of 9-dash line being 'blue national soil' must be strangled in the crib.

When exactly did China expressed the 9 dash translates to "national soil"? Countless commercial ships traverse those waters every day. I tend to think the "national soil" take is really more of what is projected by the other claimants to generate a fear factor and hype up the China threat. If you exclude the fight over the islands themselves and the fishing rights associated with them, there's zero impact to the rest of the world. Hype up the threat that China's gonna close off those waters as "national soil" and all of a sudden, this is an "issue" the rest of the world needs to be involved in per some of these other claimants.

 

[Jeff Head]

When exactly did China expressed the 9 dash translates to "national soil"? Countless commercial ships traverse those waters every day. I tend to think the "national soil" take is really more of what is projected by the other claimants to generate a fear factor and hype up the China threat. If you exclude the fight over the islands themselves and the fishing rights associated with them, there's zero impact to the rest of the world. Hype up the threat that China's gonna close off those waters as "national soil" and all of a sudden, this is an "issue" the rest of the world needs to be involved in per some of these other claimants.

It's clearly about the resource beneath the surface of the sea...the energy resources.

By making the claims they do, the PRC is basically laying claim to the bulk of those resources...and everyone knows it.

It's why they are aggressively putting oil rigs out there, and why they are aggressively reclaiming land on numerous islands...and I bet the number will grow.

At the same time, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, etc. all want to access to as many of those resources as they possibly can. But they are not strong enough to assert their claims the way China can now assert hers.

it is really as simple as that.

By claiming the whole of the South China Sea...even if they say it is just the islands...they are in reality making a play for those resources and they are going about, with a will, establishing dominance in the region to do so.

That's what is really afoot...and the PRC is playing it for the long haul.

...and with the likes of Obama otherwise engaged...or, more precisely, not engaged, there is no real effort to challenge it, except for a few skirmishes here and there by demonstrably weaker nations.

Do not get me wrong. I do not believe China would go to war with the US if the US were to challenge her. The PRC, IMHO, would simply continue to make the claim. Continue to increase holdings and reclamation, and continue to put rigs out there wherever they can. They are playing for the long haul.

Unless equal measures were made by those other nations...with strong help...to also increase holdings, reclaim reefs and shoals, place rigs, etc., well, over time, the steady increase of the PRC's holdings will make their case a de facto reality without having to have any open conflict.

The only real way to counter it is for the others to do likewise and try and keep abreast so the actual amount of holdings stays on par. In the current environment...I do not see that happening..

 

[joshuatree]

It's clearly about the resource beneath the surface of the sea...the energy resources.

There's no denying the competition for the resources but that would still be more of an argument over who's EEZ covers what as opposed to the argument about "national soil" which is more of territorial waters.

You can see attempts by claimants to maximize their EEZ claim wherever possible. For instance, Scarborough Shoal easily lies with 200 nm of the Filipino mainland. Currently, this is what they are arguing about as a provocative action by China. Yet in 2009, their filing with the UN listed it separately as a Regime of Island under UNCLOS, which would then make it eligible for its own EEZ. Clearly, designs to extend the EEZ claim even further out.

It would have been interesting to see what could have came of the joint seismic survey between China, Philippines, and Vietnam had the ugly issue of sovereignty demands and abiding by one country's laws over another not surfaced. That was as close as it got to joint use of resources. Ironically, it was not the "bully" who brought up the issue of sovereignty nor who's laws has jurisdiction.

 

[mr.bean]

US should periodically send a good portion of the 7th Fleet into the 9-dash bull crap, roam all over the place, and conduct exercises with allies. China having any ideas of 9-dash line being 'blue national soil' must be strangled in the crib.

i'm sure the united states will do all that you've mentioned above. the Chinese will just continue to do as they do now and build islands, drill and explore for oil and then do their own military exercises.

 

[Blackstone]

i'm sure the united states will do all that you've mentioned above. the Chinese will just continue to do as they do now and build islands, drill and explore for oil and then do their own military exercises.

Then both sides get what they want; China secures her historical SCS claims, and the US enforce freedom of navigation. Everyone's happy but Philippines, Vietnam, and Greenpeace.

 

[xiabonan]

Then both sides get what they want; China secures her historical SCS claims, and the US enforce freedom of navigation. Everyone's happy but Philippines, Vietnam, and Greenpeace.

Right now I dare say freedom of navigation is not under threat in the SCS. Why would the US waste her resources sending in ships?

If it's really under serious threat I can understand that.

Furthermore, why would China harm freedom of navigation in the SCS? It's as important a sea route to us as it is to any other nations.

It's just a few uninhabited islands, some oil rigs here and there, some ramming up and clashing between a few small boats. Can't really see what motive there is for the US to get so actively involved..

 

[Geographer]

Remember, these are not EEZs. They are territorial waters.

This is a common misconception. As far as I know, the dotted line represents the Chinese claim to all the islands inside the line, not the waters themselves. This is because there are so many tiny islands in the SCS that it's more convenient for mapmakers to draw the dotted line. Here's another map with dotted lines used to claim the hundreds of little Pacific islands within (you can even see China's dotted line on the far left).

China is a signatory to the 1982 Law of the Sea which said territorial waters extend 12 nautical miles from land. Territorial waters would be little 12 nm radii circles around all the islands.

If anyone can find a quotation or Chinese government or academic source that says otherwise I would love to read it. I'm always in the market for new information.