The US is testing the patient of Xi in SCS with their fonop dangerous time indeed From Asia times
There are other strategic factors in play. The South China Sea is at the center of the US-China strategic contest for regional dominance.
China and the US have converging strategic trajectories. These produce dangerous dynamics.
For China, the South China Sea provides relative “sanctuary” for its nuclear-capable submarines based in Yulin on Hainan. These submarines are its insurance against a first strike – something the US, unlike China, has not disavowed.
The US uses intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) probes to detect, track and if necessary target China’s nuclear submarines. China’s response has been to on some of the geographic features it occupies the capability to neutralize US ISR in a time of conflict.
For China, its installations are critical to its defense. But the US is continuing these probes because they give it an overall strategic nuclear advantage. Any US move to diminish China’s defense capabilities significantly would likely be a “red line.” For the US, a corresponding “red line” might well be any serious attempt to disrupt its ISR probes.
There are other probable “red lines.” For the US, this would include blatant violations of
commercial freedom of navigation, or an attack on the forces or territory of its ally the Philippines. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has
that Washington’s mutual defense treaty with Manila covers an attack on Philippine forces in the South China Sea.
A non-response by the US would destroy its credibility as the “leader” and protector of the “international order” and the region.
Any attempt by China to occupy and build on the Philippines-claimed Scarborough Shoal is also a probable “
.” Another might be China’s declaration and enforcement of an Air Defense Identification Zone over a large swath of disputed waters in the South China Sea.
For China, whose body politic has become increasingly nationalistic, any national loss of face and resultant loss of respect for leadership could trigger a response to a crossed “red line.” This might include a US military confrontation that forces a public climb-down by China’s navy.
The current situation is tense. Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, which often reflects government views, has , “Don’t play with fire off China’s coast … don’t overdo it in the South China Sea.”
But the current US is to “meet China’s greater assertiveness with a more assertive use of force of its own.” On the eve of his visit to Southeast Asia, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin he intends to emphasize a commitment to freedom of the seas and push back on “unhelpful and unfounded claims” made by China in the South China Sea.
He he will be “working closely with our partners about how we’re updating and modernizing our capabilities and their own capabilities to work together to tackle some changing forms of aggression and coercion that we’re all seeing, and I’ll be talking with our friends about how we’ll work hand in hand to pursue our new vision of integrated deterrence.”
To China, this is about as “in your face” as you can get. It is bound to respond in like manner. Hold on to your hat.
