China's SCS Strategy Thread

[AndrewS]

Hi @gelgoog
indonesia is barely a secular country, with islamic extremism boiled just below the surface, many muslims consider indonesia a caliphate, and nationalism is a big thing in indonesia, an american aggression will combine these two forces like jet fuel to fire
The only country that i think america might be able to "persuade" is english speaking singapore

I doubt Singapore would actively join in.

There's just too much Chinese economic and demographic influence there.
1 in 5 is a recent immigrant from China. Another 3 in 5 are of Chinese descent.

Plus if the USA and China are at war, it's going to become a racially charged war.
And the Singaporeans can't escape from their skin colour, and neither can most Americans tell the difference.

 

[broadsword]

So are people not talking about the Philippines?

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Of course when it comes down to it, there is nothing indonesian military can do, they will be outgunned from the start
But what happens next is what matters, indonesian topography is mountanious jungle, and the tni is pretty good at jungle warfare, the us will likely face protracted insurgency vietnam war style while at the same time fighting the PLA
It will be more trouble than it worth setting up forward deployment base in indonesia

I doubt that is the case Now how can you explain Netherland with population less than 10 million and the country the size of west Java and most of them below the sea, can colonize Indonesia for 300 years. Indonesia is not Vietnam or any other Sino world culture country. where honor, sacrifice and common good are the philosophy of life . Were it not for US insistence of dismantling colonialism after WW II Indonesia will still be under Dutch rule because all the resistance leader are captured and send to exile in Digul papua new guinea. The republic capital is occupied and there is no more resistance other than scatter guerilla war. The dutch recover and resume their colonialism after the WWII. But the dutch is broke after WWII cannot continue fighting without US assistance So they have no choice but granted independent.

 

[B.I.B.]

I doubt Singapore would actively join in.

There's just too much Chinese economic and demographic influence there.
1 in 5 is a recent immigrant from China. Another 3 in 5 are of Chinese descent.

Plus if the USA and China are at war, it's going to become a racially charged war.
And the Singaporeans can't escape from their skin colour, and neither can most Americans tell the difference.

P'haps they will start chipping the whole population.people deemed to be pro usa emit a happy tune in a wearers headphone while the antagonist will emit the star wars /darth vada warning.

 

[hkky]

View attachment 69501
You think I'm joking about that Spanish sailing ship and it's just passing through,

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On 26/02/2020, Juan Sebastián de Elcano conducted joint exercise with JMSDF Asagiri-class destroyer Yuugiri near Guam, the exercise consisted of tactical manoeuvring and communications exercise.

I'm curious as to what sort of tactical manoeuvring can be done between these two ships. Did Juan Sebastián de Elcano sail along side Yuugiri at a few knots and then threw some boarding hooks across?

A little late. I toured this ship when it visited Boston harbor back in 2017. There is nothing military about this ship beyond it is manned by cadets?

 

[bajingan]

I doubt that is the case Now how can you explain Netherland with population less than 10 million and the country the size of west Java and most of them below the sea, can colonize Indonesia for 300 years. Indonesia is not Vietnam or any other Sino world culture country. where honor, sacrifice and common good are the philosophy of life . Were it not for US insistence of dismantling colonialism after WW II Indonesia will still be under Dutch rule because all the resistance leader are captured and send to exile in Digul papua new guinea. The republic capital is occupied and there is no more resistance other than scatter guerilla war. The dutch recover and resume their colonialism after the WWII. But the dutch is broke after WWII cannot continue fighting without US assistance So they have no choice but granted independent.

Hi @Hendrik_2000
tni is much better these days than during colonial times especially on jungle warfare, of course they would get slaughtered in open combat with us forces, it is still capable of constantly harassing us forces on indonesian soil

But the us will risk two front war here if it just gorilla barged their way into establishing a forward base, especially if the PLA can somehow provide support to tni

And forget about the support of the local population if both NU and muhammadiyah declared jihad against america

 

[Sardaukar20]

I think that for today, the idea that the US would invade Indonesia to make it a forward base against China is abit too politically unpalatable. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see the US try this suicidal strategy. It'll greatly help China's cause to have the US embroiled on a two-front war. It is not beyond the USA to do such a thing, but its also too politically ugly to do it these days. The US is now entering into another multipolar cold war, but on the position of the declinining party.

With regards to Indonesia. I do hope that China could align their BRI with Indonesia's 'Global Maritime Fulcrum' strategy. Align their interests, but also give Indonesia their own space of influence. This is important, as Indonesia has the coastlines to influence the SCS, Malacca Straits, and the Indian ocean. The ideal scenario would be for China to have a reasonably strong, and friendly Indonesia like with Russia. At least they could resist getting into alignment with the US. And they could also check any Indian intentions to naval blockade the Malacca Straits.

 

[escobar]

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"If China takes military action in the Indo-Pacific involving the U.S., for instance in the Taiwan Strait, Europe is unlikely to just watch and do nothing," said Regaud, who now serves as a senior research fellow and director for international development at the Institute for Strategic Research of the Ministry of Armed Forces. "Politically, the Europeans would be obliged to take sides in order to preserve the trans-Atlantic relationship."

"Doing so, they would accept to pay a price, as China will retaliate in weaponizing trade, finance, cyberspace, etc. Militarily, France, Britain and Germany may fill in the gap left by the U.S. Navy in the Atlantic, the Mediterranean or the Gulf," he said.

How lovely it is...

 

[PhSt]

So are people not talking about the Philippines?

American-aligned political forces in the country have recently increased their anti-China rhetoric with a couple of proposals. Concerning the first article, there was a similar bill that was drafted back in the mid 2000s but has been scrapped after China protested. I don't see this bill being approved while Duterte is still in power, but it is worthy to note that elections will be held May next year, so this is perhaps in preparation for the next possible American-sponsored politician that will replace Duterte. If only the 5+ million strong ethnic Chinese population in the Philippines are more politically active/involved, the US will have a harder time attempting to sway the elections in their favor.

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[PiSigma]

There are suggestions within US think tanks to seize territories of neutral countries in the South China sea in the event of a military conflict against China. This is a clear indication that the US is not genuinely interested in protecting the sovereignty of the countries involved in SCS dispute.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367914657634152452

So basically declare war on vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia? Great way to win a war with everyone surrounding you hating on you.