China's SCS Strategy Thread

solarz

Brigadier
No, I am not.

I posted clearly that we simply do not know what the provoation was. Clearly, if the Vienamese provoked the Chineze with deadly peril to their operation or their lives, then it is understandable that they would put a stop to it howerver they could.

But, there has been no evidence shown of that.

What I take issue with is this cavalier attitude that implies that since the Vietnamese were there protesting (be it with fishermen, or their government employees on fishing boats), that therefore they deserve to rammed and sunk and put in peril of their lives.

That attitude will lead to more and more protests and confrontations...and it will prove China's international undoing. There's some more context for you.

Such an attitude it that of a rogue and a bully...and I am sure that China does not want to come across that way because it would ultimately lead to Vietnam, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, and ultimately the US all allying together to oppose what China is doing.

At least that is how I believe it would unfold with such a pronounced attitude.

Fine. Then China should prove it.

China should show that is who they were and that is what they were trying to do.

Show videos of them doing so. Show the pictures and videos of their explosives, etc. In short, show the evidence.

So far only the Vienamese are showing evidence, and it shows clearly a larger Chinses ship running down and sinking a smaller Vietnamese one.

If China has evidence to show that such an action was warranted...I welcome them presenting it. Saying it is so is easy...but it proves nothing. Showing it with credible evidence is what will count.

It should be pretty clear that these are not "protesters" but Vietnamese auxiliary navy trying to sabotage the Chinese oil rig. There are plenty of articles online where the Chinese government have condemned Vietnamese actions in the South China Sea, it just so happens that those articles don't get picked up by western media. You also won't see anything on Youtube, since it is blocked in China.

Here are some Chinese sources detailing/condemning Vietnamese sabotage actions against the Chinese oil rig:

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Given the above premise, how would you, as a commander of the Chinese maritime enforcement fleet, deal with these saboteurs? Again, you cannot chase them off, as they will simply circle back.

BTW, the Japanese coast guard used to routinely ram and sink HK and Taiwanese protester ships around the Diaoyu Islands.
 
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Geographer

Junior Member
We have a good, wide-ranging discussion going about the SCS. Doombreed, I'm enjoying reading your posts, you bring a new viewpoint to the forum. I have a couple of points to make.

First, as far as I know, neither the PRC nor ROC claim the South China Sea as their "territorial waters". That is a very specific term explained in the UNCLOS for the water 12 nautical miles from the shore. Those are waters in which national law applies in every way, and the country can ban any ship it wants from passing through. But the nine dashed line is not claiming that. The nine dashed line is claiming all the islands within it, not the water per se. Territorial waters and EEZs are them claimed from the Spratly and Paracel Islands. If you draw 200 nautical mile radii around each of the SCS islands, you'll still get a lot of water outside the EEZs and thus open fishing and petroleum exploration rights to everyone.

But if you can find a Chinese academic or government source that says otherwise I would very much like to read it.

Second, at first at I thought Doombreed's point about using the word 'dispute' was meaningless semantics but I kind of agree with him. Officially Beijing and Taipei say all the Spratly Islands belong to them. But their actions tell a different story. If North Korea occupied part of Manchuria, China would immediately go to war. But when Vietnam and the Philippines occupy part of the Spratly Islands, Beijing plays the long game. There is an implicit recognition that the mainland is China's core and the Spratly Islands are the periphery. That being said, I think this is largely out of diplomatic pragmatism. Whoever seeks to change the territorial status quo is labeled the aggressor in modern politics, as Russia has just found out. "Thou shalt not change national borders" is one of the Ten Commandments of modern international relations.

Third, China is getting badly outmaneuvered in the court of public opinion by Vietnam. International media are repeating Vietnam's claim to being the victim. Vietnam has released many videos show water cannon clashes and ship rammings to support its position. Where are all the videos to support China's claim that Vietnamese ships are harassing Chinese ships? Why can't China post videos of the alleged 1,000+ Vietnamese ship rammings and interferences? Are we to believe that no one in the Chinese coast guard has a video camera?

Fourth, looking far into the future I still don't see an endgame for China to recover the Vietnamese and Philippines-occupied islands. Those countries are so nationalistic, and the islands are so important in their populations' psyche that I don't see how their governments could ever give them up in a treaty.

Another option would be to blockade them but that is highly likely to fail as it would incur the wrath of the U.S. navy for blocking freedom of the seas.

A third option is the international court rules in China's favor, which is extremely unlikely given that China will never take the case to the World Court, and even if they did, Vietnam and Philippines' long occupations of the islands give them a strong case for those specific islands (but not the Paracel islands). Even if the World Court ruled in China's favor, it's likely that Vietnam and the Philippines ignore it.

The fourth option would be seizing the islands by force. I don't see that happening because it would almost certainly pull in the U.S. navy. The only way China could take the islands by force and not suffer American retaliation is if Vietnam or the Philippines attacked first. And I don't mean a little clash at see, I mean a multi-ship attack on some Chinese island with Chinese casualties. Only then would China have the casus belli to seize the remaining Spratly Islands by force.

How do you foresee China's endgame on the Spratly Islands, assuming their goal is to wrest control of them from Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia?
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
Oh for goodness sake! How is this even a dispute? The irony would be pretty amusing if the poster making these completely unfounded claims wasn't so arrogant.

There has never been any Chinese claim that it occupies all islands it claim in the SCS. China's position throughout was that others have illegally occupied Chinese territory. The implied lesson was that others have only managed to do that as a result of Chinese weakness, which in turn was caused by internal Chinese division.

The timeline might be a little fuzzy as some of the Islands were occupied while on the CCP's watch, which they have largely glossed over and while never explicitly stating so, created and maintain a general impression that the Islands were occupied while the Nationalists were in power and too weak willed to do something about it even though they had the means to stop it/take them back.

The only place I have ever heard such obsurd claims that Bejing claims it currently occupies/controls all claimed island in the SCS is from one poster here, who's tone and attitude makes it abundently clear the main reason he concocted this silly notion is to devise some wet dream scenario where China falls into internal schism and implodes.

I would normally not waste my time dignifying such nonsense with a response, but this is just getting too far and distracting from the real issue everyone is here to real and discuss.

To try and get this thread back on topic, here is the latest development.

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China responds to Vietnamese claims and videos with counter claims of its own.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
To try and get this thread back on topic, here is the latest development.

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China responds to Vietnamese claims and videos with counter claims of its own.
And this is exctly what the PRC should do, IMHO, and then follow it up with actual evidence.

To date, the article only quotes a Chinese official who states:

article said:
"As of 5pm on 7 June, there were as many as 63 Vietnamese vessels in the area at the peak, attempting to break through China's cordon and ramming the Chinese government ships for a total of 1,416 times."

They will have to do more than just say this. They should show the evidence of it...the videos...showing that the Vietnamese vessel was imperiling the lives and property of the Chinese, and this is the reason that vessel was chased down, rammed and sunk.

We have a video showing the latter part of this quite clearly. What we need is a video showing that Vietnamese vessel ramming Chinese vessels and imperiling life, which would justify the Chinese vessel enuring that the Vietnamese vessel was not able to do so again.
 
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Blackstone

Brigadier
Here's an interesting take on Team Obama's strategy on ESC and SCS disputes. The overwhelming view of US officials, pundits, and media (on both sides of the political divide) paint China in various shades of "Evil Empire," hellbent to bully her neighbors and do to the West what the West did to China. But once in a while, other voices are heard.

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We don’t want to talk to China about “core interests,” we want to talk about “common interests,” is how Evan Medeiros, senior advisor on Asian policy in Obama’s National Security Council (NSC), in a May 22 interview on Phoenix TV, described the Obama administration’s approach to a “new type of great power relations.”

What the Obama administration is seeking in a “new type of relationship” are areas of common interests where the two can cooperate, like climate change, the rule of law, and cyber security.

Listening to the articulate Medeiros, what he says seems at first reasonable and constructive. We can believe that this approach is fully endorsed and considered optimal by the State Department and the all-powerful Department of Defense (DoD).

After a moment’s reflection, however, we begin having doubts.

What if the “common interests” defined by the U.S. are not really “common” to or are defined differently by China? What, particularly, American ideas of “common interests” would – according to the U.S. “cooperative” agenda – conflict with China’s clearly defined “core interests”?

For evidence that both these situations exist – which means the NSC’s policy approach is, at best, conceptually flawed – we cite two recent situations: The United States’ May 19 accusations and Department of Justice indictments against alleged Chinese PLA cyber-espionage; and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s May 12 charge that China’s movement of an oil rig into the South China Sea was a provocation and “aggressive act.”

Because the U.S.-China cyber-security issue has been so prejudicially and one-sidedly presented by most U.S. media, some background information is required for a fair discussion of it. Two data points are particularly relevant.

The first is the revelation, from secret documents leaked by Edward Snowden and reported in The Washington Post on August 31, 2013, that the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA), had, since at least 2011, been conducting “offensive cyber-operations” – codenamed “GENIE” – against China (along with North Korea, Russia, and Iran). The Post reported that “the $652 million project has placed ‘covert implants,’ sophisticated malware transmitted from far away, in computers, routers and firewalls on tens of thousands of [targeted country--i.e. Chinese] machines every year, with plans to expand those numbers into the millions.”

The second point would be the Obama White House’s insistence during the June 2013 Obama-Xi Jinping “Sunnyland’s Summit” that on issues of “cyber-security,” only commercial espionage – the U.S. charge of China’s “theft” of American intellectual property – would be discussed, and that “military/defense related cyber-security” – i.e., the type of “GENIE” program actually conducted against China – was taken “off the table.”

In the White House’s view of “common interests,” then, we find the U.S. taking a strong stand against “theft” of intellectual property, and presuming to enlist China on a “common” resolution of the issue. But we also see an obstinate U.S. refusal to acknowledge, much less to address, the surely greater damage and loss caused to China’s “core national interests” by covert U.S. sabotage of China’s real national security system infrastructure from the GENIE program.

In short, the Obama White House’s high-sounding rhetoric about “common interests” – rather than a practical and constructive approach to relations with China – seems like more of a camouflage and diversion from aggressive and, objectively, hostile U.S. policies and actions that threaten China’s core interests.

Since at least 2010, the Obama administration has chosen to insert itself into territorial issues in the South China Sea, when Hillary Clinton, claiming to support the “rule of law,” made statements clearly biased in favor of Vietnam and the Philippines and against China. Unsurprisingly, Secretary of State John Kerry’s statements have followed the same line.

It was fortunate that on May 15, three days after Kerry called Chinese drilling operations “provocative” and an “aggressive act,” People’s Liberation Army Chief of the General Staff General Fang Fenghui was in Washington, D.C. on a reciprocal visit, and able to reply directly to U.S. press questions about the matter. Quoting the Department of Defense’s transcript of the press conference, General Fang said:

“China is conducting the exploitation activity in – within 12 nautical miles of the Zhongjian Islands which is part of the Paracel Islands. And this is an activity conducted within our territorial water.

And secondly, the related countries in the South – in the South China Sea region have drilled actually many oil wells in the South China Sea, but China has never drilled even one. From this single fact, we can see how much restraint China has exercised. And the purpose of this restraint is to keep – to maintain the stability of the South China Sea region.

“We have an enduring position of putting aside disputes and achieve [sic] common exploitation. But while China is holding this position, other nations are drilling oil wells in this region. So that’s – that is the status quo. And I have to underscore it is only under this background that we are conducting that exploitation activity within the Zhongjian island.”

In short, China is conducing a vital economic activity within its own territory – a “core national interest.” For the U.S. Secretary of State to call this “provocative” or an “aggressive act” is actually a provocative and hostile anti-Chinese policy stance on the part of the United States.

Again, we see U.S. rhetoric about pursuing “common interests” disguising utterly contradictory policies and actions that are obstacles to and can only harm prospects for a constructive U.S.-China “new type of great power relationship.”

The U.S. Justice Department’s inexplicable indictments of PLA officers caused China to suspend the U.S.-China “cyber-security” working group and cancel planned military-to-military exchanges with the Pentagon. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has responded resolutely to John Kerry’s outlandish statements that have again put the U.S. squarely in the middle of issues that do not and should not matter to U.S. interests, and in no way present “common interests” with China.

The question is inevitable and must be answered: While the U.S. refuses to discuss “core national interests,” can China at least trust the United States to pursue its own national interests? If not, there can be no trust, and no constructive and sustainable bi-lateral relationship. Without a fundamental change in the Obama administration’s approach, the near term U.S.-China relationship is in trouble.

Stephen M. Harner was a U.S. Foreign Service Officer in Beijing, Washington, D.C., Hong Kong and Tokyo. He is a graduate of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
There's evidence at the Cairo Accords back during WWII China was suppose to get back islands controlled by Japan now. Does anyone think evidence or treaties matter? And Vietnam started whining about ramming after the riots that destroyed foreign factories and innocent civilians were murdered. Don't really need any proof with evidence there and look how the media doesn't make the connection that it's Vietnam trying to distract. Like if China killed someone, that alone wouldn't be what everyone's focus would be on and how evil China is? So why should China bother when this is just a petty power play by the media and others to make China bend over backward for nothing because we know this situation is not about fairness. It's all about whose side you're on. Want me to bring up the sinking of Cheonan supposedly by North Korea? South Korea claimed North Korea laced a torpedo with German parts so when they were found it would look like North Korea didn't do it. Problem is how did North Korea manage to make it where only German parts of the torpedo were found? And this incident was used to vilify China for not going along with US lead sanctions. So do you really think it matters showing any proof or evidence when making crap up can pass off as evidence because you're on the "right" side? I was reading articles about China telling Chinese companies not to do business with Vietnam this morning and how it is horrible China is using economics to get it's way. Like sanctions on North Korea or Iran or Russia or on China isn't about getting "their" way? And the media is going to be fair?
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
And this is exctly what the PRC should do, IMHO, and then follow it up with actual evidence.

To date, the article only quotes a Chinese official who states:



They will have to do more than just say this. They should show the evidence of it...the videos...showing that the Vietnamese vessel was imperiling the lives and property of the Chinese, and this is the reason that vessel was chased down, rammed and sunk.

We have a video showing the latter part of this quite clearly. What we need is a video showing that Vietnamese vessel ramming Chinese vessels and imperiling life, which would justify the Chinese vessel enuring that the Vietnamese vessel was not able to do so again.

It was one thing when I thought the sinking was either an accident, or the larger Chinese ship responding to make a snap call in the heat of the moment protect a smaller Chinese ship from being rammed and sunk. But I cannot think of any situations where actively chasing the Vietnamese 'fishing' boat down and sinking it would be justifiable.

I think that the sinking video was a big own goal for China, and one of the lessons it should draw from this incident is the need for disciplined professionals to be at the helm, rather than some civilian hothead.

I would not be surprised if the captain and officers of that Chinese squid catcher wasn't disciplined and punished for what they did, potential even being give prison terms. But that would have been done mainly for the benefit of any other civilian Chinese captain or crew who might get stupid ideas and/or crack up under the pressure.

However, in this day and age, its better to be mistaken as guilty but dangerous rather than innocent and weak/incompetent. So I do not expect any punishment that might have be handed out to be acknowledged never mind publicised by Beijing.
 

foxmulder

Junior Member
Here's an interesting take on Team Obama's strategy on ESC and SCS disputes. The overwhelming view of US officials, pundits, and media (on both sides of the political divide) paint China in various shades of "Evil Empire," hellbent to bully her neighbors and do to the West what the West did to China. But once in a while, other voices are heard.

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Rare thing...
 
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