China's SCS Strategy Thread

[AssassinsMace]

Chinese actions with oil rig was another step towards consolidating her hold over the South China Sea. Overwhelmingly one-sided Western narratives aside, there's no doubt China is more assertive now than before 2009/2010. Reality is, when China throws her weight around, Asia gets nervous.

Facts from the 2012 Presidential Election paint a different picture than your narrative. Obama only hawked 'China threat' after Mitt Romney and other GOP candidates, except John Huntsman, droned on and on about China this and China that. It's all about election politics.

That's if you think Obama is a serious thinker. Look at Bergdahl. When I first heard about his release, the first thing that popped-up in my head, "Wasn't that the guy that went AWOL and walked off base?" Like trading 5 Taliban leaders didn't come off as controversial to him? That doesn't paint a different picture than my narrative. If Obama is concerned about his image, all the more what Romney did would push him to get tough on China.

Let me remind you that many pundits point to Copenhagen environmental summit to where Obama was going to get tough on China because of the diss where China sent a low level official to meet with him. As I have noted many times in this forum Obama to the run up of the summit was vilifying China already setting the blame of the summit's failure on China. It was reported then that Congress wasn't going to ratify anything coming out of Copenhagen making the blame for the summit's eventual failure on the US. Obama didn't want that strike against him so he wanted it to fail during the summit and not afterwards when Congress rejected it. That way he could blame China and that's what he was setting up before the summit started. Obama's idea that he knew assured failure was developed economies didn't have to do anything but developing ones had to make all the sacrifices. No developing economy was going to agree to that especially China. So what does this say in the big picture? Obama is willing to completely lie about another nuclear armed country for his own personal agenda. If he's pissed that China snubbed him at Copenhagen which the media says started bad relations, then maybe he shouldn't have set up China as the fall guy just so he doesn't get blamed for Copenhagen failing. The whole pivot idea supposedly sprang up after the summit. Look now at how he's making an enemy out of both nuclear powers of Russia and China at the same time. Russian and China are already setting business not to be traded in dollars. China helped the US win the Cold War because the Soviet Union had two fronts to worry about. Tangle with one or the other but not both. And now Obama is the one that has two fronts to worry about not Russia or China. Obama is not one that thinks about the consequences which is what's getting him into trouble.

 

[balance]

Will this work against China? I seriously doubt it. If so, what is this?

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Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe's declaration of aid for Asian countries, coupled with offers to sit down for talks with China, is a major step that could well offer a pathway to new stability in the region's seas -- if China will respond better than its bluster at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue, the Asia Security Summit in Singapore.

Abe was specific in his offers to China: Words, not conflict; operate the 2007 agreement he sought between Japan and China for maritime and air communications to avoid miscalculations; start now to create a roadmap for success at next year's important East Asia Summit, its 10th anniversary and a key time for progress; publicly disclose each step in military budgets so that they can be cross-checked, because "sunshine is the best disinfectant."

Simultaneously, Abe made clear that Japan will be proactive, offered "utmost support" to the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and was equally specific. What will Japan actually support, and how? Ten new patrol vessels for the Philippine Coast Guard; three new patrol ships to Indonesia, already underway; similar vessels to Vietnam, to be constructed; all followed by scores of expert instructors with technical skills.

While U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel's sharp denunciation of China's high-handed efforts to seize the South China and East China Seas commanded the headlines, it was Abe, keynoting the dialogue, who offered peaceful solutions and long-term regional security.

How China will respond is uncertain, although its leaders have a history of refusing to talk except on their own terms. They also renege or refuse to act on agreements, such as with ASEAN countries not to use force in the South China Sea, with Japan to better communicate at sea and in the air, and with the Philippines not to occupy Scarborough Shoal. The latter is typical. The United States in 2012 negotiated an agreement for both China and the Philippines to remove forces from Scarborough. The Philippines did. China stayed.

Yet China, when under pressure, has been known to act in its own best interests, beyond the bluster displayed at the Shangri-La Dialogue.

Chinese officials at the meeting were prepared for U.S. criticism from Hagel but received much more than they bargained for. Hagel, in unusually strong language, said the U.S. "firmly opposes any nation's use of intimidation, coercion, or the threat of force" in the South China Sea. A senior Chinese military official, Lt. Gen. Wang Guanzhong, complained that Hagel's remarks were more than expected and "full of hegemonism." Later a Chinese military professor, Major Gen. Zhu Chenghu, said the U.S. was making "very, very important strategic mistakes."

From Singapore, the discussion then moved to the G7 meeting in Brussels, where the group of leading nations -- the U.S., Japan, Britain, Germany, France, Canada, and Italy -- "oppose any unilateral attempt" to assert claims in the East China Sea, where China threatens Japan's Senkaku Islands, or in the South China Sea, where China opposes the Philippines, Vietnam and others.

With world leaders, east and west, voicing their concerns to China, it may well be Japan's strengthening of its neighbors, such as the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia, that will give China pause.

Freedom of the seas has been accepted worldwide since the days of the early Greeks and Romans, Japan's Abe told the meeting in Singapore. He described the rule of law at sea and asked, "What exactly do we mean in concrete terms?" He answered with three principles:

States shall make and clarify their claims based on international law.
States shall not use force or coercion in trying to drive their claims.
States shall seek to settle disputes by peaceful measures.
If China continues to disregard these principles and stays in the internationally accepted zones of countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam, it may well be the other side of Abe's dual offer -- defensive armed aid to those countries -- that will deter aggression and bring stability back to Asia.

 

[joshuatree]

Interesting.....does this pave the way for China to address the issues via UN on her terms? A change in strategy or part of some elaborate plan? News title is a bit misleading as no case is actually filed but a position paper distributed.

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China took its dispute with Vietnam over its deployment of an oil rig in contested waters to the United Nations on Monday, accusing Hanoi of infringing on its sovereignty and illegally disrupting a Chinese company’s drilling operation.

Deputy ambassador Wang Min sent a “position paper” on the rig’s operation in the South China Sea to Secretary general Ban Ki-moon on Monday and asked the UN chief to circulate it to the 193 members of the General Assembly.

China sent the rig into disputed waters on May 1, provoking a confrontation with Vietnamese ships, complaints from Hanoi, and street protests that turned into bloody anti-Chinese riots. Hundreds of factories were damaged and Beijing said in the paper that four Chinese citizens were “brutally killed” and over 300 injured.

The oil platform is located about 32km from the China-controlled Paracel Islands, which Vietnam also claims, and 278km from the coast of Vietnam.

According to the paper, the state-run China National Offshore Oil Corporation has been conducting seismic operations and well site surveys in the area for the past 10 years and the drilling operation “is a continuation of the routine process of explorations and falls well within China’s sovereignty and jurisdiction.”

Beijing accused Vietnam of “illegally and forcefully” disrupting the rig’s operation by sending armed ships and ramming Chinese vessels.

“Vietnam also sent frogmen and other underwater agents to the area, and dropped large numbers of obstacles, including fishing nets and floating objects, in the waters,” it said.

The paper said Vietnam’s actions violated China’s sovereignty, posed “grave threats” to Chinese personnel on the rig and violated international laws including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

It cited numerous references to back its claims that the islands “are an inherent part of China’s territory, over which there is no dispute.”

China has occupied the Paracel Islands, which it calls the Xisha Islands, since 1974, but they are also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam. Vietnam calls them the Hoang Sa Islands.

Vietnam, which has no hope of competing with China militarily, said soon after the US$1 billion deep sea rig was deployed that it wants a peaceful solution, but a top official warned that “all restraint had a limit.”

 

[A.Man]

China's State Enterprises Told to Stop Investing in Vietnam

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It’s one more sign of how far China has to go before it starts treating its state enterprises more like normal commercial businesses, as its leaders pledged last November. Government-owned companies have been told to freeze temporarily any plans for new business in Vietnam, reports the South China Morning Poston June 9.

The government has temporarily stopped Chinese state-owned companies from bidding for fresh contracts in Vietnam,” the Hong Kong-based paper reported, citing several unnamed sources. “This is a sign that China is playing the economic card. How effective will it be? We will have to wait and see,” said Xu Liping, an expert on Southeast Asian relations at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Tensions are growing between the two countries following China’s mooring of an oil rig in a disputed part of the South China Sea, a little more than 200 kilometers from Vietnam’s central coast. China’s southern neighbor has released a video showing a Chinese boat ramming and sinking one of its own vessels.

Story: Why Vietnam Can't Count on Its Neighbors to Rally Against China

China, for its part, issued a statement through its foreign ministry on June 8, saying Vietnam boats had rammed its ships more than 1,400 times and was using “frogmen and other underwater agents” to interfere with its operations. “Immediately stop all forms of disruptions of the Chinese operation and withdraw all vessels and personnel from the site, so as to ease the tension and restore tranquility at sea,” the statement read.

The order to state businesses to stop investing apparently came through a phone call from China’s commerce ministry, the Post reported, adding that a person working in the ministry’s bidding permit office confirmed the suspension. While China has been Vietnam’s biggest trading partner for the past decade, it only ranked only 11th in foreign direct investment, according to Vietnam’s general statistics office. Most of China’s 113 companies registered in Vietnam do engineering, including in the power and chemical industries, according to a business association that tracks Chinese investment, the newspaper said.

“The market must play a decisive role” and China “must actively and steadily push forward the breadth and depth of market-oriented reforms,” China’s leaders solemnly proclaimed in a 60-point reform plan, released at last November’s Third Plenum. Part of that was supposed to be making state enterprises more market-oriented. That goal is proving difficult.

Story: China's Ready to Rumble

“The challenges to commercializing SOEs stem from the government’s reliance on SOE’s balance sheets and resources to perform many strategic and policy-oriented functions,” notes Fitch Ratings in “China State-Owned Enterprises: On a Bumpy Path Towards Market Reform,” a June 9 report. Those include “undertaking outbound investments to facilitate diplomatic relationships,” the report notes. It looks as though state enterprises have a role to play when overseas relations are going sour too.

Story: Anti-China Riots in Vietnam Scare Taiwan

 

[Jeff Head]

>>>>>>>>>> MODERATOR'S INSTRUCTIONS <<<<<<<<<<
​

This thread is about Chinese military strategies for the South China Sea.

NOT about Russian thinking and how western writers do or do not get Russian thinking straight. NOT about the East China Sea and the EEZ (there is a separate thread for that). NOT about the US pivot to Asia per se and the politics in America regarding it.

Politics is highly discouraged on SD. Read the rules and abide by them.

...and GET BACK ON TOPIC.

Any more of this will result in warnings and suspensions.

Off topic posts will be removed.

DO NOT RESPOND TO THIS MODERATION.

>>>>>>>> END MODERATOR'S INSTRUCTIONS <<<<<<<<
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[A.Man]

Why China Is Angry About a Game of Beach Volleyball

Vietnam and the Philippines put their differences aside to present a united front against China.

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By Mark C. Eades June 10, 2014 | 2:55 p.m. EDT + More


China has been angry before, but never about volleyball.

Vietnamese and Philippine troops gathered on a disputed island in the South China Sea on Sunday to drink beer and play beach volleyball in a show of unity that has enraged Beijing. The gathering took place on Southwest Cay in the Spratly Islands, disputed between Vietnam, the Philippines and China. This show of unity between Vietnam and the Philippines in the face of growing Chinese aggression produced a quick reaction from Beijing.

"Don't you think this small move together by Vietnam and the Philippines is at most a clumsy farce?" said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying at a daily press briefing on Monday. "China has irrefutable sovereignty over the Spratly Islands and the seas nearby. ... We demand that Vietnam and the Philippines stop any behavior that picks quarrels and causes trouble ... and not do anything to complicate or magnify the dispute."

[READ: China Learned All the Wrong Lessons From Tiananmen]


China's "irrefutable sovereignty" over the Spratly Islands and the rest of the South China Sea is, of course, quite refutable. China claims about 90 percent of the South China Sea based on its unilaterally-declared "nine-dash line," a claim unrecognized by anyone but the Chinese themselves. Never mind — China will make up its own version of reality as it goes along, based on China's own preferences without regard to what the rest of the world thinks. China is a master at creating works of pure geopolitical fiction, then convincing itself that that these are "irrefutable" facts. The trouble is, China can't convince anyone else.

Despite their own competing claims on Southwest Cay and other islands, Vietnam and the Philippines put aside their differences in the face of what the two Southeast Asian nations increasingly see as a far greater threat from China. The two have agreed to expand naval cooperation, and Vietnam recently expressed interest in a case for international arbitration filed by the Philippines against China. Both countries have also strengthened ties with the United States, irritating China.

This fits a general pattern of Asia-Pacific nations pulling closer together and into closer cooperation with the United States for fear of Chinese aggression. To China, however, it is its Asia-Pacific neighbors and the United States that are guilty of "picking quarrels and causing trouble." Poor China is only an innocent victim of others' troublemaking.

[READ: Sanctioning China, Saving Lives]

Tensions have risen between China and Vietnam since China recently placed a massive oil rig near the disputed Paracel Islands off Vietnam's coast. China has accused Vietnam of sending ships and divers to disrupt its drilling operations, while Vietnam has accused China of threatening its vessels near the rig. "The two sides are testing each others' resolve to see who will blink first," said security analyst Alexander Vuving. "China is in a position to show it has more resolve than Vietnam. This is part of China’s overall strategy of turning the South China Sea into a Chinese lake. Once China can control the South China Sea, it can dominate the maritime areas of the western Pacific."

China has taken its case to the United Nations, accusing Vietnam of illegally disrupting Chinese drilling operations and ramming its ships. The Paracel Islands "are an inherent part of China's territory," said China's complaint to the UN, "over which there is no dispute." Once more, China makes up its own facts as it goes along, claiming as "indisputable" that which is eminently disputable.

Tensions have also risen between China and the Philippines over islands that China claims are an "indisputable" part of Chinese territory. Beijing has accused the Philippines of being "a determined challenger of Chinese national interests and the devoted hatchet man of foreign anti-China forces," the latter a clear reference to Manila's increasingly close relationship with Washington.

Now China is angry about a game of beach volleyball. This will not make it any easier for the rest of us to take China seriously as a world power.

This is pushing China to react.

 

[A.Man]

Jeff, I Hope You Are Not A Part Of IT.

America's Ultimate Strategy in a Clash with China

Articles advocating a war or "Clash" between the US and China are now allowed.

 

[Jeff Head]

Jeff, I Hope You Are Not A Part Of IT.

A.Man, I am trying to understand what you mean by this statement. Part of what?

And why tie my name to an article you post by some think tanker that is basically advocating using islands to blockade and contain China as a part of this man's vision of ASB? And though he says he wants to avoid it, he then titles that article as a "Clash between the US and China?

Such articles advocating war between the US and China, even though they make a statement or two that they want to avoid it...and then spend the whole article advocating it, or now allowed on SD.

Post articles. Make sure they are not political. Stay on topic.

But DO NOT attempt to label or tie other SD members to the articles you post unless you know they helped author it.

Copiche?.

 

[Jeff Head]

>>>>>>>>>> MODERATOR'S INSTRUCTIONS <<<<<<<<<<
​

I had just moderated this thread about the discussions, and urged all members to read the rules. Now, only a few posts later I have had to remove several posts again.

This thread is about Chinese military strategies for the South China Sea. Certainly not about articles that advocate war or clashes between the US and China...which is not allowed in any case.

A.Man and Brumby, you are both being warned as a result of posting such articles and carrying on such a discussion.

Read the rules and abide by them.

...and GET BACK ON TOPIC.

Any more of this will result in suspensions and this thread being closed.

Unallowed and Off topic posts have be removed.

DO NOT RESPOND TO THIS MODERATION.

>>>>>>>> END MODERATOR'S INSTRUCTIONS <<<<<<<<
​

 

[Air Force Brat]

Why China Is Angry About a Game of Beach Volleyball

Vietnam and the Philippines put their differences aside to present a united front against China.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

By Mark C. Eades June 10, 2014 | 2:55 p.m. EDT + More


China has been angry before, but never about volleyball.

Vietnamese and Philippine troops gathered on a disputed island in the South China Sea on Sunday to drink beer and play beach volleyball in a show of unity that has enraged Beijing. The gathering took place on Southwest Cay in the Spratly Islands, disputed between Vietnam, the Philippines and China. This show of unity between Vietnam and the Philippines in the face of growing Chinese aggression produced a quick reaction from Beijing.

"Don't you think this small move together by Vietnam and the Philippines is at most a clumsy farce?" said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying at a daily press briefing on Monday. "China has irrefutable sovereignty over the Spratly Islands and the seas nearby. ... We demand that Vietnam and the Philippines stop any behavior that picks quarrels and causes trouble ... and not do anything to complicate or magnify the dispute."

[READ: China Learned All the Wrong Lessons From Tiananmen]


China's "irrefutable sovereignty" over the Spratly Islands and the rest of the South China Sea is, of course, quite refutable. China claims about 90 percent of the South China Sea based on its unilaterally-declared "nine-dash line," a claim unrecognized by anyone but the Chinese themselves. Never mind — China will make up its own version of reality as it goes along, based on China's own preferences without regard to what the rest of the world thinks. China is a master at creating works of pure geopolitical fiction, then convincing itself that that these are "irrefutable" facts. The trouble is, China can't convince anyone else.

Despite their own competing claims on Southwest Cay and other islands, Vietnam and the Philippines put aside their differences in the face of what the two Southeast Asian nations increasingly see as a far greater threat from China. The two have agreed to expand naval cooperation, and Vietnam recently expressed interest in a case for international arbitration filed by the Philippines against China. Both countries have also strengthened ties with the United States, irritating China.

This fits a general pattern of Asia-Pacific nations pulling closer together and into closer cooperation with the United States for fear of Chinese aggression. To China, however, it is its Asia-Pacific neighbors and the United States that are guilty of "picking quarrels and causing trouble." Poor China is only an innocent victim of others' troublemaking.

[READ: Sanctioning China, Saving Lives]

Tensions have risen between China and Vietnam since China recently placed a massive oil rig near the disputed Paracel Islands off Vietnam's coast. China has accused Vietnam of sending ships and divers to disrupt its drilling operations, while Vietnam has accused China of threatening its vessels near the rig. "The two sides are testing each others' resolve to see who will blink first," said security analyst Alexander Vuving. "China is in a position to show it has more resolve than Vietnam. This is part of China’s overall strategy of turning the South China Sea into a Chinese lake. Once China can control the South China Sea, it can dominate the maritime areas of the western Pacific."

China has taken its case to the United Nations, accusing Vietnam of illegally disrupting Chinese drilling operations and ramming its ships. The Paracel Islands "are an inherent part of China's territory," said China's complaint to the UN, "over which there is no dispute." Once more, China makes up its own facts as it goes along, claiming as "indisputable" that which is eminently disputable.

Tensions have also risen between China and the Philippines over islands that China claims are an "indisputable" part of Chinese territory. Beijing has accused the Philippines of being "a determined challenger of Chinese national interests and the devoted hatchet man of foreign anti-China forces," the latter a clear reference to Manila's increasingly close relationship with Washington.

Now China is angry about a game of beach volleyball. This will not make it any easier for the rest of us to take China seriously as a world power.

This is pushing China to react.

Welcome to the big league, I am just glad to see China "enjoying" some of the same type of criticism that the US is barraged with on a daily basis. Some of this criticism is justified, and some may not be, but the US does make a legitimate point about freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. To allow that to become a "bottleneck", overwrought by special interests and turf wars, would be a travesty, the US would much prefer to see these disputes go away, and many of these disputes do appear to be contrived???