China's SCS Strategy Thread

[ansy1968]

He’s playing both the US and China.

Hi Petrolicious88,

He had to, cause there are a lot of Filipinos living and working in the US and these bring a lot of influence both economically and cultural , at the same time, China is our neighbor and also had the same influence as the US due to overseas Chinese diaspora.

What he had done, is that he is able to implemented an truly independent foreign policy, which laid bare the hypocrisy of the US, it's policy ,its intention. Recently he had closed a media outlet for violating our constitution, whose owner is a an untouchable oligarch holding a US passport, it get a lot of negative attention from bias western media for suppressing news freedom without exploring the truth and the reason for the closure.

What I'm implying is that US is using the Phil govt establishment, the business oligarch, the media and the church as way of extending their influence. What he is able to do is destroying it pieces by pieces and inform the people of what the real situation are and expose their wrong doing.

 

[ansy1968]

Relax and have a beer. Here is the situation. All the in your face tactics coming from the Trump administration is to help his re-election. Time is on the side of the Chinese, which is why they can hardly bother to respond to his provocations except in a case where they must, as with the Houston embassy eviction. Even there, the Chinese are showing restraint. When you are gaining ground fast, the last thing you want is to be distracted into a pissing contest. You should keep focused on executing your plans, which are mostly internal.

The Trump Syrian Offensive is a classic example of how Trump would use the military. He ordered a bunch of missiles shot into mostly empty airports and such, killing a few people. It is all for show. In the South China Sea, where a conflict could happen, Trump may provoke something if he is desperate enough on the home front. Now if we go and hit a well defended island, it is highly likely that our warship would get shot at and most likely hit. If he send in a B2, it is highly likely the plane could be shot down. That would be a disaster for the presidential campaign. He needs to create an incident where the Chinese won't fight back. I think Scarborough Shoal is a perfect target. From airbase in The Philippines, he can hit this relatively unoccupied island and run away before the Chinese can shoot back. The island is relatively unoccupied so casualties are likely to be low. If this were to happen, the Chinese would clap their hands and rejoice. They did not want to build up Scarborough Shoal out of respect for Duterte. Americans bombing the island would give them a pretext to build up the largest man made Island in the world, and very close to The Philippines. In fact, a hit on any island in the South China Sea would be used in the same way to build more man made islands. When they build the island, they will have war ships watching the place like hawks.

We are living in a sad part of the history where foreign policy is used as tool for personal gains and domestic political campaigns, relationship with other countries are used to cover up ones incompetence in governance.

Hi reservior dogs,

good read ,but there is a one mistake in your summary, The Phil govt under President Duterte will never allow the US to use any part of our country as a launch pad for foreign adventure, especially that will involve us into war, the VFA agreement need the US to inform us the reason for their deployment and it must be mutually agreed. I mean what gain do we received from this action, Its against our national interest and principle.

 

[SimaQian]

Exactly. Even his previous secretary of state John Bolton said he was working for

“a president for whom getting re-elected was the only thing that mattered, even if it meant endangering or weakening the nation.”

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Bolton book to lambast Trump’s foreign policy motivations Excerpt from former adviser’s tell-all describes a president ‘driven by re-election calculations’ The White House has tried to delay publication of the forthcoming book from John Bolton, who served as Donald Trump’s national security adviser © AFP via Getty Images Share on Twitter (opens new window) Share on Facebook (opens new window) Share on LinkedIn (opens new window) Save Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington JUNE 13 2020 237 Print this page John Bolton, the former US national security adviser, will accuse Donald Trump in a new book of tailoring his foreign policy to help win re-election and chastise Congress for limiting its impeachment inquiry to the president’s dealings with Ukraine. “I am hard-pressed to identify any significant Trump decision during my tenure that wasn’t driven by re-election calculations,” Mr Bolton wrote in The Room Where It Happened, according to an early excerpt of the book. Foreign policy experts have been waiting to see how tough Mr Bolton, a hardliner who ended his 17-month tenure on bad terms with Mr Trump, will be on the president in the book, to be published June 23. Mr Trump has said he fired Mr Bolton, who served as his third national security adviser, but the foreign-policy hawk has insisted that he resigned over their differences. According to the book’s publisher, Simon & Schuster, Mr Bolton will describe Mr Trump’s “scattershot decision-making process” as well as his astonishment that he was working for “a president for whom getting re-elected was the only thing that mattered, even if it meant endangering or weakening the nation.” The publisher said Mr Bolton would go further to accuse the House of committing “impeachment malpractice by keeping their prosecution focused narrowly on Ukraine when Trump’s Ukraine-like transgressions existed across the full range of his foreign policy”. The Ukraine-related scandal led to impeachment proceedings against Mr Trump, before he was ultimately acquitted by the US Senate. Mr Bolton said at the time that he would testify in the Senate impeachment trial if he received a subpoena directing him to do so. He never did. Since leaving the White House, Mr Bolton has criticised Mr Trump over his Iran policy and handling of negotiations with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. Mr Bolton, a former US ambassador to the UN under George W Bush, became Mr Trump’s third out of four national security advisers after the president fired HR McMaster, the three-star general who had been hired instead of Mr Bolton after the ousting of Mike Flynn, a retired general who held the critical post for only 22 days. He had a close-up view of the Ukraine scandal that unfolded when it emerged that Mr Trump had pressured his Ukrainian counterpart to find dirt on Joe Biden, the now Democratic presidential nominee. Recommended Lunch with the FT Fiona Hill: ‘I knew more about what was going on in the Kremlin’ The White House has tried to delay publication of the book, first by forcing Mr Bolton to remove classified information. In the account, Mr Bolton will also accuse the president of obstructing his Twitter account after he left the White House and trying to censor its publication. “Bolton’s response? Game on,” the publisher wrote, saying it would fully support Mr Bolton’s “First Amendment right to tell the story”. The Yale-educated lawyer was an unexpected choice to work under Mr Trump. The president had opted against Mr Bolton once before because he did not like his moustache — and while Mr Bolton was a fan of regime change, Mr Trump had campaigned against endless wars. At one point in their relationship, Mr Trump quipped that, “I actually temper John, which is pretty amazing”. While Mr Trump first tolerated their differences, he grew angrier when Mr Bolton was absent from the Sunday morning news shows where senior officials tend appear to defend the president. Mr Bolton had also contradicted Mr Trump by saying that a series of North Korean short-range missile tests in 2018 had breached UN sanctions.

If Trump did not have the balls to bomb Kim Jung On back when Kim is making waves in East Asia though his nuke tests,
it would be suicidal for Trump to attack China which has even more conventional and nuke capabilities.

All the US and its allies are making more noise for public consumption to distract the public from even more
pressing problems like Covid or the climate change increasing devastating effects. Who else is talking now
in last year Australian fires where it killed a billion animals and their president is escaping responsibility
and vacationing in Hawaii? Who even discusses that these wildfires will happen again with increasing ferocity.
These climate change related problems are even more bigger and perpetual. Yet none of the five eyes are
making example of meaningful change.


If there is really a war this coming months it will always start with an ultimatum and movement of military assets.
none of them are happening.

 

[reservior dogs]

Hi reservior dogs,

good read ,but there is a one mistake in your summary, The Phil govt under President Duterte will never allow the US to use any part of our country as a launch pad for foreign adventure, especially that will involve us into war, the VFA agreement need the US to inform us the reason for their deployment and it must be mutually agreed. I mean what gain do we received from this action, Its against our national interest and principle.

Hello ansy1968,

I certainly hope so. However, if you see how the U.S. acted around the world, if we wanted to do something like that, breaking an agreement would not stop us from doing it. Hope wiser heads prevail.

 

[ansy1968]

Hello ansy1968,

I certainly hope so. However, if you see how the U.S. acted around the world, if we wanted to do something like that, breaking an agreement would not stop us from doing it. Hope wiser heads prevail.

Hi reservior dogs,

Yup i understood your concern, I think every nation is somewhat hesitant to join the US for any military adventure while the pandemic is still rampaging. What Trump and its cronies are doing Its so crude and obvious that everybody know the reason for its action which is to win the election and it may backfire cause he is willing to sacrifice everybody for selfish goal.

Now if China had develop a vaccine this September, do you think they will join the US, President Duterte publicly stated in his SONA that Xi had agreed to give some batches for the Phil. That's a great endorsement of the effectiveness of China develop vaccine.

 

[reservior dogs]

Hi reservior dogs,

Yup i understood your concern, I think every nation is somewhat hesitant to join the US for any military adventure while the pandemic is still rampaging. What Trump and its cronies are doing Its so crude and obvious that everybody know the reason for its action which is to win the election and it may backfire cause he is willing to sacrifice everybody for selfish goal.

Now if China had develop a vaccine this September, do you think they will join the US, President Duterte publicly stated in his SONA that Xi had agreed to give some batches for the Phil. That's a great endorsement of the effectiveness of China develop vaccine.

The Chinese have said that they will provide their vaccine as a public good to the world. Now in practical terms, there is still the matter of producing enough so someone will get it first. Exactly who gets it first will depend on how the political game is played. China has 1.3 billion people, so there better be a great reason why they would prioritize some of its own citizens behind someone outside the country, but I am sure they could be persuaded.

 

[SimaQian]

The Chinese have said that they will provide their vaccine as a public good to the world. Now in practical terms, there is still the matter of producing enough so someone will get it first. Exactly who gets it first will depend on how the political game is played. China has 1.3 billion people, so there better be a great reason why they would prioritize some of its own citizens behind someone outside the country, but I am sure they could be persuaded.

Well the simple reason is there is less cases now in mainland China. So there is not much any effect if the vaccine is first use in mainland.
So better use them to those who need the most, has less money and does not throw shit at China like maybe in Africa or South America.

 

[ansy1968]

The Chinese have said that they will provide their vaccine as a public good to the world. Now in practical terms, there is still the matter of producing enough so someone will get it first. Exactly who gets it first will depend on how the political game is played. China has 1.3 billion people, so there better be a great reason why they would prioritize some of its own citizens behind someone outside the country, but I am sure they could be persuaded.

Hi reservior dogs,

From what I read, the 3 vaccine maker SINOPHARM, CANSINO and SINOVAC had each invested in a factory that can produce 30 million dosage per month , so 90 million per month total. Or they can licence it to other

 

[ansy1968]

Well the simple reason is there is less cases now in mainland China. So there is not much any effect if the vaccine is first use in mainland.
So better use them to those who need the most, has less money and does not throw shit at China like maybe in Africa or South America.

Hi SimaQian,

You know what, its payback time, let see the what the US, Australia, Uk and India will do, if China Prioritize country that is friendly with her. Maybe diplomatically she can offer the vaccine but they have to fall in line starting at the back

 

[LesAdieux]

in a SCS war scenario, what if China only targets Australian or Japanese warships and sink a few of them to put USA on the spot?
US retaliates and escalates the conflict ? Risk of a full blown war then, huhh.
US does nothing? Loss of credibility then, haahaa.
But of course hope that all players keep their cool despite these posturing, and no ugly physical actions ever take place.

China used this tactics in 1958. during the taiwan strait crisis, taiwan asked the US navy to escort shipping across the strait based on "the mutual defence treaty between USA and ROC (taiwan), China opened fire on taiwanese ships, the US didnot respond.

sinking jap ships are not enough, China can also try to take Abe and Morrison out.