in a SCS war scenario, what if China only targets Australian or Japanese warships and sink a few of them to put USA on the spot?
US retaliates and escalates the conflict ? Risk of a full blown war then, huhh.
US does nothing? Loss of credibility then, haahaa.
But of course hope that all players keep their cool despite these posturing, and no ugly physical actions ever take place.
Relax and have a beer. Here is the situation. All the in your face tactics coming from the Trump administration is to help his re-election. Time is on the side of the Chinese, which is why they can hardly bother to respond to his provocations except in a case where they must, as with the Houston embassy eviction. Even there, the Chinese are showing restraint. When you are gaining ground fast, the last thing you want is to be distracted into a pissing contest. You should keep focused on executing your plans, which are mostly internal.
The Trump Syrian Offensive is a classic example of how Trump would use the military. He ordered a bunch of missiles shot into mostly empty airports and such, killing a few people. It is all for show. In the South China Sea, where a conflict could happen, Trump may provoke something if he is desperate enough on the home front. Now if we go and hit a well defended island, it is highly likely that our warship would get shot at and most likely hit. If he send in a B2, it is highly likely the plane could be shot down. That would be a disaster for the presidential campaign. He needs to create an incident where the Chinese won't fight back. I think Scarborough Shoal is a perfect target. From airbase in The Philippines, he can hit this relatively unoccupied island and run away before the Chinese can shoot back. The island is relatively unoccupied so casualties are likely to be low. If this were to happen, the Chinese would clap their hands and rejoice. They did not want to build up Scarborough Shoal out of respect for Duterte. Americans bombing the island would give them a pretext to build up the largest man made Island in the world, and very close to The Philippines. In fact, a hit on any island in the South China Sea would be used in the same way to build more man made islands. When they build the island, they will have war ships watching the place like hawks.
We are living in a sad part of the history where foreign policy is used as tool for personal gains and domestic political campaigns, relationship with other countries are used to cover up ones incompetence in governance.