But you can flip that and ask if China is willing to put everything on the line for some islands in the SCS?
Yes, a lot more credibly than America. Objectively there's more core interests here for Beijing than Washington.
Also, China has absolute conventional escalation advantage in the SCS, but once things goes nuclear, it’s at best a tie, but most likely America still holds a significant escalation advantage, especially in light of the lack of clear proportional response targets for China to strike back against without an unacceptable risk of triggering all out nuclear war.
We also need to remember that Trump is a reckless gambler who is growing increasingly desperate as his poll ratings plummet.
I can easily see him throwing long term US
strategic interests out the window if he thinks a military clash will give him the fleeting boost he needs for a second term.
For example, he could easily escalate tensions until he has a pretext for military action, send in a SSGN to spam a few (conventionally armed) missile at the SCS islands from a few thousand miles away as fast as it can launch them and then head immediately back to base with minimal risk. He can then issue an ultimatum that he will respond with tactical nuclear weapons against China SCS bases if China retaliates.
I can see China limiting itself to non-direct responses in such a scenario, especially if little to not damage was done on the islands themselves.
For example, China could simply declare everything west of the first and maybe even second island chain as off limits to US military assets, with a shoot on sight order in place for any US military vessel or aircraft spotted in that area.
Trump gets to say he dropped the hammer on China and made the big bad boogeyman back down, while China effectively pushes the US out of its backyard.
I can see both sides living with that outcome.
I don't buy it. It's Trump and the USA trying to play good cop, bad cop, they're trying to bluff and I'd call it every day of the week. In fact, I think a lot of this rhetoric is psychological warfare designed to frighten the Chinese and induce CPC domestic infighting. Fits neatly inline with the administration's new push on Chinese regime change.
I'm actually impressed, it's one of America's more effective gambits of late, the consulate closure and SCS brinksmanship has caused more fear and dissonance in the Chinese media sphere than any other action this administration.
But let's bring things back. Let's look at America and Trump's hand here. Trump's a billionaire celebrity with global business interests, and his kids are modern-day royalty hobnobbing around the world. He's not a "reckless gambler." The American elite are the richest peoples that have ever existed in the history of humanity. They have the most to lose and they're playacting belligerence as a negotiating ploy. Pose them the question, "Do I want to die for Taiwan or the SCS?" and they'd fold every time.
If I were the Chinese leadership, I'd re-raise and double down every military escalation. As long as the top of the ladder ends in nuclear holocaust, I don't see how the side with the weaker will - Washington - won't back down.
In my opinion, any incident's gotta be some weird type of scenario like the one you posited. However, with any military action, how can Washington be so sure to control Chinese escalation?
Sure, Trump will win points if he can wipe out some artificial islands scot-free, and walk away boasting about putting down the Chinese yellow menace.
But if the Chinese call his bluff and respond in kind? Maybe say the Chinese start detaining American boats carrying "illegal arms shipments to Taiwan" re: the Yinhe. Maybe there's a Beidou malfunction and a missile lands in the courtyard of the American Institute of Taiwan. There's huge amounts of risk to any Trump gambit. If China escalates and he folds, he'd be completely toast and a historical laughingstock for all time.
As an aside, I'm assuming China has a more credible nuclear deterrent than 300 nuclear ICBMs. Like Mearsheimer said, if that's all China's got, there's gonna be some itchy trigger fingers in Washington.
