Phillipines, Ryu Kyu, Vietnam...
China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
Phillipines, Ryu Kyu, Vietnam...
antiterror13
Brigadier
I highly doubt it .... Philippines already said openly that it won't,
and Vietnam? I highly doubt it, Vietnamese know that the US can't be trusted, it depends on the politics. And once Vietnam did that, China will never forget it and like it or not, China will be Vietnam's giant neighbour for a very long long time, while the USA is over 20k kms away, and Vietnam know that too well. And also like it or not, China will be much more important country than the USA in Asia and the gap is growing every single day
We can only hope he will not be re-elected. He is a No Name Calling!(called by Kim of North Korea) and is a catastrophic President for USA, and useless & antagonistic to the World at large. Just observe how he is handling the Pandemic in the USA...shows his complete ignorance. If America wants respect, they will Dump the Trump & hopefully elect a much better President in November 2020.it seems almost certain that Trump would win again for his 2nd term... actually not good for the US geopolitic
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plawolf
Lieutenant General
US deploying ground troops in the SCS is wet dreaming at best and absolutely idiotic if they are stupid enough to go through with it.
Firstly there are no islands in the SCS the US can deploy marines to big enough to not make them sitting ducks to stand-off strikes.
Chinese holdings in the SCS has the size and scale to be able to hold off significant enemy offensive forces by themselves, and massive PLAN naval support is at most only days away.
Chinese policy is and will continue to be not to shoot first.
If US marines deployed to the SCS are moronic enough to open fire on Chinese forces, China will respond with overwhelming and merciless force. Because the balance of power in the region is now ridiculously stacked in Beijing’s favour.
The PLA doesn’t need to try to capture any US marine held islands. They can simply blockade them by shooting down and sinking anything that comes within a hundred miles of those positions without affecting normal commercial trade much if at all. All the while conducting sustained stand-off, and then drone strikes on those marines.
That will put massive time pressure on the USN to charge in to the rescue, which will make it much more likely they move in half cocked and under-strengthen, which will make it that much more likely that the PLA would be able to achieve decisive victory against them.
At the best of times, China’s SCS holdings would be a death trap and meat grinder for attacking forces that would take months of stand off attack to degrade to allow enemy surface and air assets to even think about getting remotely close to.
Putting US boots on the ground in the middle of that is like baiting yourself.
Can any US President withstand the political pressure and hold his forces back slowly chipping away at Chinese holdings while US marines are getting obliterated with gun camera footage of them getting hit being broadcasted daily on the news?
If the US rushes in half cocked and get owned by the PLA, you can bet after the dust settles China will seize any and all islands US forces had occupied and make them into new island fortresses ‘to deter further foreign aggression’.
The only reason for putting US marines into that position is if the intention is for them to die and die badly, thereby committing the US to open conflict with China irrespective of what the US administration at the time wants.
Firstly there are no islands in the SCS the US can deploy marines to big enough to not make them sitting ducks to stand-off strikes.
Chinese holdings in the SCS has the size and scale to be able to hold off significant enemy offensive forces by themselves, and massive PLAN naval support is at most only days away.
Chinese policy is and will continue to be not to shoot first.
If US marines deployed to the SCS are moronic enough to open fire on Chinese forces, China will respond with overwhelming and merciless force. Because the balance of power in the region is now ridiculously stacked in Beijing’s favour.
The PLA doesn’t need to try to capture any US marine held islands. They can simply blockade them by shooting down and sinking anything that comes within a hundred miles of those positions without affecting normal commercial trade much if at all. All the while conducting sustained stand-off, and then drone strikes on those marines.
That will put massive time pressure on the USN to charge in to the rescue, which will make it much more likely they move in half cocked and under-strengthen, which will make it that much more likely that the PLA would be able to achieve decisive victory against them.
At the best of times, China’s SCS holdings would be a death trap and meat grinder for attacking forces that would take months of stand off attack to degrade to allow enemy surface and air assets to even think about getting remotely close to.
Putting US boots on the ground in the middle of that is like baiting yourself.
Can any US President withstand the political pressure and hold his forces back slowly chipping away at Chinese holdings while US marines are getting obliterated with gun camera footage of them getting hit being broadcasted daily on the news?
If the US rushes in half cocked and get owned by the PLA, you can bet after the dust settles China will seize any and all islands US forces had occupied and make them into new island fortresses ‘to deter further foreign aggression’.
The only reason for putting US marines into that position is if the intention is for them to die and die badly, thereby committing the US to open conflict with China irrespective of what the US administration at the time wants.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
US is already on Okinawa... And it's not in the SCS.
Vietnam's holdings are all very small vs what China build up. I guess Philippines got that rusting boat that they beached....
Well obviously the US will not be going in unprepared in this situation. They will be fully prepared for full scale war if they do fire first. It won't be USN charging in from days away, half cocked. Not a chance they are incompetent. If the SCS ever becomes a meat grinder, it's going to be very ugly for China no matter how it plays, short of super secret wonder weapons that completely change the power balance.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
I'm not sure which country will allow hosting of enough US troops and time to buildup before China do something.
Only countries are Vietnam and Philippines. Vietnam, China can just blockade Cuban style AND send in the army. Any ships approaching is within land based ASBM, so firepower wise, no amount of buildup is going to matter.
Philippines can't be blockaded, but is further from the action, so less effective, and also suffers from within range of pretty much all Chinese missiles.
When it comes down to it, it all based on tyranny of distance.
Gulf war took months of buildup in Kuwait, you think China is like Iraq and just going to sit there? They might as well just put 10 divisions in Cuba and see what the Americans can do about it.
So I am aware that Steve Bannon doesn't officially represent any US administration anymore currently but a youtube video a while back in an interview he was asked if he could give advice to Trump what he would do about the SCS situation, he stated that he could give the CCP 48 hours to pull all their stuff from the artificial islands and level the area or else the US would come in and do it by force.
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PiSigma
"the engineer"
Bannon is a special kind of crazy. That's just 48 hours for the marines on the islands to prepare.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Steve Bannon is not worth posting because he's basically an ultra-conservative cult leader and holds no office. Bullshit like that is one of the reasons he got fired. His ideas are stupid and not useful to America. The US is keen to avoid actual conflict with powerful nations. The last time there was some ship maneuvering in the SCS between China and the US where China basically surrounded the American formation. An American captain (or some form of commander) requested permission to open fire and they immediately relieved him of command.
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