China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Brumby]

Education camps were decided to be abolished last year.

Decided... it is a good start. Hopefully it is a seamless transition between decision and implementation.

 

[PanAsian]

The South China Sea to China is the Caribbeans to the US, and by dominating it, China links the Western Pacific to the Indian Ocean and secures her SLOC to Africa and the Middle East. With the SCS in her pocket, China would also dominate, militarily and economically, NE and SE Asian commerce, which is overwhelmingly done over water. Just as the US became a maritime great power by first controlling the Caribbeans, China could be a maritime great power by dominating the SCS. It starts and ends with the South China Sea.

I see it rather differently. As I had mentioned in other posts China is aiming to be at least the equal of the top military power that may operate within the First Island Chain in order to deter a seaborne attack on the Chinese mainland. But that does not secure any of their SLOCs at all as they continue through the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

Specifically on the South China Sea it is a combination historical status, regional status, as well as practical space and resource issue for China. It would mark a re-establishment of a level of Chinese influence in that part of the world not seen since the European colonial powers partially supplanted China by carving out their domains there several hundred years ago. However it will have little effect on SE Asian trade with other countries as China will be eager to prove it is as beneficient a big brother as the US or more so once its own needs are met.

US domination of the Caribbeans coincided with European colonial powers focusing their attention elsewhere with a second rate Mexico and third rate Native Americans as obstacles to the US taking over half of a pristine, resource rich, and sparsely populated hemisphere. No such luck for China. It might come close only if China manages to peacefully reunify with Taiwan and does spectacular business in its far western regions, Central Asia, and the Russian Far East.

 

[irischloe]

Does China need PR? I thought the main strategy is censorship and if it doesn't work there is always the education camps.

education camps for 1.35 billion people?
That's what PR means

Back to topic, IMHO china gov. should have the record of whatever vietnam fishboat did in the disputed area, just imagine how conservative and careful steps they take in other area.

The reason why they are not publicize, as xiabonan stated, it may cause a huge anti-viet movement that gov. can't control. Note this is with "china scale" and not only in home country but also the chinese all over the world.

The best move of china should be not to escalate the issue so that other nations in ASEAN will not be forced to make position.

 

[delft]

What happens to Collins Reef? Does China plan to evict Vietnam from that area? I mean I can't see PLAN allowing a foreign and potentially hostile force to be so close to one of its major naval bases.

Indeed, the US had the British deport the inhabitants not just from Diego Garcia but also from all the other islands in the Chagos archipelago. And those were innocent civilians.

 

[delft]

Why can't they operate a new base right across the street from the Vietnamese? US has been doing that with the Cubans at Guantanamo.

Would you have the US deport all the Cubans from Cuba?

 

[Blackstone]

I see it rather differently. As I had mentioned in other posts China is aiming to be at least the equal of the top military power that may operate within the First Island Chain in order to deter a seaborne attack on the Chinese mainland. But that does not secure any of their SLOCs at all as they continue through the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

The ECS is in good shape for China, and sea borne invasions from that direction isn't realistic anymore, so China is directing its efforts to the SCS. At the end of the day, the SCS is the key to China's SLOC security, and dominating it enables China to link the Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific.

Specifically on the South China Sea it is a combination historical status, regional status, as well as practical space and resource issue for China. It would mark a re-establishment of a level of Chinese influence in that part of the world not seen since the European colonial powers partially supplanted China by carving out their domains there several hundred years ago. However it will have little effect on SE Asian trade with other countries as China will be eager to prove it is as beneficient a big brother as the US or more so once its own needs are met.

Good narrative.

US domination of the Caribbeans coincided with European colonial powers focusing their attention elsewhere with a second rate Mexico and third rate Native Americans as obstacles to the US taking over half of a pristine, resource rich, and sparsely populated hemisphere. No such luck for China. It might come close only if China manages to peacefully reunify with Taiwan and does spectacular business in its far western regions, Central Asia, and the Russian Far East.

China's aim to control the SCS is very difficult, to put it mildly, for the reasons you listed and more. No doubt the Red Dynasty thought about that before going on the rampage, but to secure its economic empire, it had to be done.

 

[weig2000]

Here is a video about China's "Ocean Oil" series giant platform/equipment:

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[Doombreed]

I'm on vacation at home and I often hear lots and lots of discussion about this topic, I can honestly say that not only the Chinese people do not feel our government is at wrong, they support it and some even think that our government IS NOT DOING ENOUGH.

Years and years and years of PR and stuff made a significant portion of the population think that the whole SCS is our TERRITORIAL waters.

Does people know about the islands currently OCCUPIED by countries such as Vietnam? How do they reconcile that? Or is that not mentioned in the news?

 

[nameless]

Does people know about the islands currently OCCUPIED by countries such as Vietnam? How do they reconcile that? Or is that not mentioned in the news?

What is there to reconcile? How does Vietnam reconcile with China's occupation? Or Japan with regards to Russia and SK? Everyone is doing the same thing with regards to patriotic education on territorial claims.

 

[Doombreed]

What is there to reconcile? How does Vietnam reconcile with China's occupation? Or Japan with regards Russia? Everyone is doing the same thing with regards to patriotic education.

Well, the whole point of the CCP PR is "every inch of Chinese soil is sacred! Not one step back! Chinese sovereignty will not be violated! All of SCS is China's territorial waters! No different to a square meter of land in Beijing!"

"Oh...yeah...except for those 29 islands...those we don't have control over and haven't been for a while...We're trying our best...but eh.....water cannons doesn't seem to do the trick"

Kinda eats into the CCP strong narrative doesn't it? You got to remember, the SCS issues are not framed as a "dispute" by the CCP. It's framed as "inalienable Chinese sacred soil". It's a kind of a big deal if the CCP accepts it as a dispute, as there are international frame works to deal with disputes. It paints the CCP into a corner doesn't it? That's why some Chinese citizens feel that the government is not doing enough. I'm just wondering, how those citizen will feel when they find out that another country actually OCCUPIES some part of the "inalienable Chinese sacred soil". And if they don't know, doesn't it paint a picture of what the CCP tell the Chinese and what they really think of the issue?