China's SCS Strategy Thread

[nameless]

No, I am not.

I posted clearly that we simply do not know what the provoation was. Clearly, if the Vienamese provoked the Chineze with deadly peril to their operation or their lives, then it is understandable that they would put a stop to it howerver they could.

But, there has been no evidence shown of that.

What I take issue with is this cavalier attitude that implies that since the Vietnamese were there protesting (be it with fishermen, or their government employees on fishing boats), that therefore they deserve to rammed and sunk and put in peril of their lives.

That attitude will lead to more and more protests and conforntations...and it will prove China's international undoing.

Such an attitude it that of a rogue and a bully...and I am sure that China does not want to come across that way because it will ultimately lead to Vietnam, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, and ultimately the US all ally together to oppose what China is doing.

At least that is how I believe it would unfold with such a pronounced attitude.

Fine. Then China should prove it.

China should show that is who they were and that is what they were trying to do.

Show videos of them doing so. Show the pictures and videos of their explosives, etc. In short, show the evidence.

So far only the Vienamese are showing evidence, and it shows clearly is a larger Chinses ship running down and sinking a smaller Vietnamese one.

If China has evidence to show that such an action was warranted...I welcome them presenting it. Saying it is so is easy...but it proves nothing. Showing it with credible evidence is what will count.

Jeff, Chinese workers were killed in Vietnam for simply being Chinese, where is your outrage for that? Cavalier attitude is nothing when compared to the outright intentional murder of innocent people. Do you expect Chinese people to sympathized with those murder? China has was only trying to enforce its sovereignty but Vietnam has already killed innocent people only because of their race, who is the real bully here?

 

[shen]

IMHO, both sides are using fishing vessels to try and keep the tensions down.

In this case, China had a larger, faster vessel, and the way it ended up being used...unless it is shown that the Vietnamese imperiled them in such a way to warrant it...is ending up escalating the situation.

As I say, unless the Chinese show that the Veitnamese imperiled them seriously, then IMHO, Vietnam is going to decisively win the arguement here and it will influence people and nations against China.

both sides used coast guard vessels from the start, so it is a bit late to going back to using fishing vessels. we know this incident happened quite a distant away from the drill rig. Xisha/Paracel is of course always busy with fishing vessels. So two groups of fishermen ran into each other, with nationalism running high, started to harass each other and things got out of hand.

Unlike Vietnam, China doesn't need external support in this standoff. Notice the silence of the Chinese foreign ministry compare to the Vietnamese. China doesn't even care to play the international opinion game this time. If the Chinese government started to leak videos and start a big propaganda campaign to counter the Vietnamese side of the story, it may inflame domestic public opinion to be even more anti-Vietnamese and situation could really get out of hand. Right now, China has the situation completely in control, will finish drilling by August and leave as announced from the beginning.

 

[nameless]

IMHO, both sides are using fishing vessels to try and keep the tensions down.

In this case, China had a larger, faster vessel, and the way it ended up being used...unless it is shown that the Vietnamese imperiled them in such a way to warrant it...is ending up escalating the situation.

As I say, unless the Chinese show that the Veitnamese imperiled them seriously, then IMHO, Vietnam is going to decisively win the arguement here and it will influence people and nations against China.

If they were not influenced by the murder of Chinese workers but rather by a sinking boat, then they never will be.

 

[Jeff Head]

Jeff, Chinese workers were killed in Vietnam for simply being Chinese, where is your outrage for that? Cavalier attitude is nothing when compared to the outright intentional murder of innocent people. Do you expect Chinese people to sympathized with those murder? China has was only trying to enforce its sovereignty but Vietnam has already killed innocent people only because of their race, who is the real bully here?

Nameless, stay on topic.

Trying to raise another action, that happened far away from this, and was not the actions of the Vienamese government or its personnel, is simply emotionally trying to rationalize what happned here, and shift the burden of proof.

Of course any Vietnamese citizen who murders a Chinese citizen in Veitnam is wrong. I have never implied anything different, nor would I.

But that is not the topic of this conversation. It is simply trying to link them as a way to say that this is somehow okay.

It is not.

As I have said numerous times. If the Vietnamese vessel did something to dangerously imperil Chinese peronnel here, or to try and sabotage their operations (which would also imperil the Chinese personnel), then China should show it and prove that this action was necessary. I welcome China doing such a thing.

As to the other...if you want, and if there is not one already going, start a separate thread in the Members Club Room about that incident...but we are not going to debate it here.

 

[Blackstone]

What I take issue with is this cavalier attitude that implies that since the Vietnamese were there protesting (be it with fishermen, or their government employees on fishing boats), that therefore they deserve to rammed and sunk and put in peril of their lives.

It's not about cavalier attitudes of life and death in ship rammings, if that was the focus, then the case is closed in favor of Vietnam. The bigger issue is whether one nation could allow another "heckler's veto" in maritime disputes.

That attitude will lead to more and more protests and confrontations...and it will prove China's international undoing. There's some more context for you.

Such an attitude it that of a rogue and a bully...and I am sure that China does not want to come across that way because it would ultimately lead to Vietnam, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, and ultimately the US all allying together to oppose what China is doing.

Or it could be China has come to the realization that no matter what she does, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, and God know who else would turn it backwards and make China the bad guy. Given that, China might believe short-run hits on her PR is unavoidable, so she might as well as make lemon into lemonade. It's a short-term problem, because in the long-run, China is too important to the global economy, and can't be isolated or shoved aside.

 

[Zool]

Nameless, stay on topic.

Trying to raise another action, that happened far away from this, and was not the actions of the Vienamese government or its personnel, is simply emotionally trying to rationalize what happned here, and shift the burden of proof.

Of course any Vietnamese citizen who murders a Chinese citizen in Veitnam is wrong. I have never implied anything different, nor would I.

But that is not the topic of this conversation. It is simply trying to link them as a way to say that this is somehow okay.

It is not.

As I have said numerous times. If the Vietnamese vessel did something to dangerously imperil Chinese peronnel here, or to try and sabotage their operations (which would also imperil the Chinese personnel), then China should show it and prove that this action was necessary. I welcome China doing such a thing.

As to the other...if you want, and if there is not one already going, start a separate thread in the Members Club Room about that incident...but we are not going to debate it here.

I won't reference it any further if it will be seen as a call to lock this thread due to conflicting opinion. But you do realize the Factory burnings and Chinese deaths in Vietnam are directly related to the Chinese Oil Rig deployment, Vietnamese Government response vis-a-vis it's populace / media messaging and the overall situation between China and Vietnam in the SCS, right? Seems on topic. But I will leave it at that.

Cheers

 

[Jeff Head]

It's not about cavalier attitudes of life and death in ship rammings, if that was the focus, then the case is closed in favor of Vietnam.

No, it would not. If China can show that these vessels imperiled them and their personnel, then taking such action to stop or prevent it is warranted. And in that scenario, it falls in the favor of China.

I have not said that China itself is cavalier. At least that has not been my intent. I have said that I have seen a cavlier attitude here in this discussion. Such an attitude, if it exists with China officially, will lead to China actually encouraging others to ally together to stop such behavior. I have clearly said that I do not believe that is what China wants.

Or it could be China has come to the realization that no matter what she does, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, and God know who else would turn it backwards and make China the bad guy. Given that, China might believe short-run hits on her PR is unavoidable, so she might as well as make lemon into lemonade.

I cannot accept that ramming vessels that are posing no threat and sinking them is in any way "lemonade" or could be made into it.

If China can show that these vessels were imperiling them...then that would be different, then they would be warranted in taking such actions. I welcome them showing that this is the case.

It's a short-term problem, because in the long-run, China is too important to the global economy, and can't be isolated or shoved aside.

I have not said anything about China being isolated or shoved aside.

However, these nations we speak of also have their own claims and EEZs in the South China Sea. China cannot "shove them aside," either. Them protesting actions by China that they feel infringe on their own rights in the area, are something that does not represent an attempt to shove China aside of isloate her. They represent those nations protesting what they view as China violating their own areas.

Dealing with that is the issue...and I feel it could be dealt with through true diplomacy and the various sides being willing to work with each other.

I also believe that if China deals with each of these nations in this manner, then it will unavoidably drive them together to oppose China.

I personally hope all of that can be avoided.

Again...if those vessels were doing anyhting that imperiled the Chinese, they should show it.

If not...then I can only hope that the official Chinese position is not something on the order of "if you come near us, protesting what we are doing, be prepared to get rammed and sunk." Such a course is unreasonable, itself imperiling to life, and will simply force negative outcome I believe China would oitherwise rather avoid.

 

[Jeff Head]

I won't reference it any further .

Okay.

But you do realize the Factory burnings and Chinese deaths in Vietnam are directly related to the Chinese Oil Rig deployment, Vietnamese Government response vis-a-vis it's populace / media messaging and the overall situation between China and Vietnam in the SCS, right? Seems on topic.

Then you turn right around and do so?

Last time...we are not discussing that here.

What mobs, or criminals do within Vietnam is something that the Vietnam authorities have to respond to.

Killing like that is murder, plain and simple. It is not to be condoned. It is not to be ignored. I do not believe the Vietnam government is ignoring it or condoning it. I have seen no indication, official or otherwise of that.

Linkiing it to this incident is an emotional way to rationalize and excuse what happened here. it is just as bad as what you imply.

They are sperate incidents. It is not on topic here on this thrad.

 

[Zool]

I wanted to make it clear for Jeff and anyone else that I don't link those deaths as a "rationalization" or "excuse" for other Chinese activities.

 

[Geographer]

From today's

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:

The proposal to build an artificial island there had been submitted to the central government, said Jin Canrong , a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. The artificial island would be at least double the size of the US military base of Diego Garcia, a remote coral atoll occupying an area of 44 square kilometres in the middle of the Indian Ocean, Jin added.

The reef currently houses Chinese-built facilities including an observation post commissioned by Unesco's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission.

Holy cow! So China might be building two artificial islands in the SCS. I'm skeptical of the claim that the Fiery Cross Reef island is going to be double the size of Diego Garcia because that would be one of the largest land reclamation projects in history, if I'm not mistaken. I don't think the surrounding reef is that big.

Here is a diagram of the proposed Chinese base at Johnson South Reef.