China's SCS Strategy Thread

[AssassinsMace]

The only reason why the Vietnamese are making a big deal over this is they had to distract from the attack on foreign factories. They're covering up, beyond geo-politics, foreign factories are being targeted by the public most likely because corrupt government officials have to balance getting their take with making Vietnam attractive for low wage outsourcing. The wages and working conditions suffer as a result. Vietnam is probably worse in corruption than the Philippines. I know Vietnamese that tell me of how they go back to Vietnam and because their Americans, who all have money, they're targeted by just anyone with a position of authority at the airport and have to pay a bribe just to let them leave the country. Yeah it probably doesn't help where I hear Vietnamese in the US who have low wage jobs are rich by Vietnam standards and they go back and live that life showing-off.

 

[Jeff Head]

Jeff-
Well reasoned argument, as usual, and excellent analysis on the course of events on the video.

Thanks.

The other side of the coin is Vietnam's use of 'heckler's veto' and the notion if one goes out looking for trouble, one shouldn't complain if one finds it.

Well, the Vietnamese are certainly protesting the actions there in the SCS.

In the following video...which is longer than the one shown earlier...we can see that there are actually two Vietnamese boats at first that are running away from the Chinese operation at good speed. The larger Chinese vessel picks out the nearer of them to collide with.

[video=youtube;3mkiTkMVemM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mkiTkMVemM[/video]
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They are clearly leaving the scene of the Chinese operations. If they simply sailed close to the operations in order to protest it. or even sprayed water on it, or engaged with the common bumping, then the response was completely out of proportion.

But that's the whole point. We simply do not know. They may have done much worse.

My guess would be that if there was a provocation from the Vietnamese that invoved a clear endangerment of Chinese life...we would see it. But we haven't.

Now, that does not in and of itself mean that it did not occur. But in any normal incident like this...both sides would present the evidence.

 

[Zool]

We are not likely to know what went on before what is shown in this video that may have provoked the Chinese.

Let's take a hard look at several of the frames of the video itself.

IMHO, unless that Vietnamese vessel had done something similarly life-threatening to a Chinese vessel or structure, there was no excuse for what happened here. Even if the Vietnamese ship was near a Chinese oil rig. Even if they harassed a Chinese vessel...unless of course they tried something similar and put Chinese lives at risk.

As I say, we do not know the provocation...but that is clearly what happened, and, IMHO, it cannot be sugar-coated by anything on that video.

Is it not all a matter of perspective?

These Vietnamese vessels have repeatedly entered the declared exclusion zone around China's Oil Rig, a national economic asset. Their hostile intent toward the asset is clear via Vietnamese Government statements on the matter and the attempted approach to the Rig by numerous vessels, despite Chinese Coast Guard warnings.

Now were this a US Oil Rig being approached by a multitude of similarly hostile ships, say from Venezuela, would the USCG not warn them off? The difference being vessels disregarding a USCG warning and subsequent arrest attempt would be shot at and forcibly stopped. The USCG would never allow hostile ships to approach a US owned Rig let alone board it (which is the inevitable conclusion).

China understands it's situation and that it cannot shoot first, even in a policing action. So it is using other means to dissuade repeated Vietnamese aggression against the Oil Rig. What else can they do?

If the Chinese ships took no physical action of deterrent and let the Vietnamese vessels continue on through the exclusion zone to the Rig, invariably you would have Vietnamese citizens/activists/naval personnel boarding the Chinese Rig. At which point you would have a much more dangerous situation to de-escalate.

China is pressing it's territorial interests to be sure. But it also has a strong case which include historical facts to back up those interests. My view (which may go against the grain) is that China is being fairly restrained in the actual level of physical force applied in these various circumstances - those of it's making and the making of others equally. We have seen how others in the region deal with conflicting issues from time to time - Philippines v. Taiwanese Fishermen for example.

 

[Jeff Head]

Now were this a US Oil Rig being approached by a multitude of similarly hostile ships, say from Venezuela, would the USCG not warn them off?

Warning them off, and chasing fleeing small vessels down, ramming them and sinking them are two completely different issues.

The US Coast Guard would never do anything like this unless the vessel posed, or had posed a mortal, endangerment to life of the people on the rig, or to the Coast Guard personnel. And the US Coast Guard would produce, forthwith, the evidence that they were doing so.

If the Chinese have such evidence, they should produce it. That would end any concern about what happened.

If the Chinese ships took no physical action of deterrent and let the Vietnamese vessels continue on through the exclusion zone to the Rig, invariably you would have Vietnamese citizens/activists/naval personnel boarding the Chinese Rig.

At which time the Chinese would be justified in ejecting them from the rig.

My view (which may go against the grain) is that China is being fairly restrained in the actual level of physical force applied in these various circumstances.

If you feel that running down a smaller vote and sinking it without severe, life threatening provocation is somehow restrained...then yes, indeed, I would say that you are cutting against every grain of civility and maritime law on the high seas.

 

[joshuatree]

They are clearly leaving the scene of the Chinese operations. If they simply sailed close to the operations in order to protest it. or even sprayed water on it, or engaged with the common bumping, then the response was completely out of proportion.

But that's the whole point. We simply do not know. They may have done much worse.

My guess would be that if there was a provocation from the Vietnamese that invoved a clear endangerment of Chinese life...we would see it. But we haven't.

Now, that does not in and of itself mean that it did not occur. But in any normal incident like this...both sides would present the evidence.

The video shows one item which I don't doubt was the point of releasing this edited footage. But so many questions.

- Where did this incident take place relative to the rig and relative to the Paracel Islands? A CNN article interviewing the crew of this sunken vessel said they have to return to the Paracel Islands even after this incident.

- Why were there so many fishing vessels but there didn't seem to be any CG or govt vessel from either side?

- It didn't seem like either of the two Vietnamese boats even bothered to steer hard port or starboard away from the Chinese vessel. Why?

- Why are we certain the Chinese vessel is a govt vessel, not another group of fishermen? Just because the boat is made of steel?

To me, this seems more like a skirmish between two groups of fishing vessels. Without more knowledge or evidence of the situation leading up to the sinking, who's to say there wasn't a provocation from the Vietnamese side or not? But I bet tensions are running super hot, especially in light that the riots in Vietnam did lead to deaths of Chinese whereas the skirmishes on the waters have led to no deaths of Vietnamese.

 

[solarz]

Warning them off, and chasing fleeing small vessels down, ramming them and sinking them are two completely different issues.

The US Coast Guard would never do anything like this unless the vessel posed, or had posed a mortal, endangerment to life of the people on the rig, or to the Coast Guard personnel. And the US Coast Guard would produce, forthwith, the evidence that they were doing so.

If the Chinese have such evidence, they should produce it. That would end any concern about what happened.

At which time the Chinese would be justified in ejecting them from the rig.

If you feel that running down a smaller vote and sinking it without severe, life threatening provocation is somehow restrained...then yes, indeed, I would say that you are cutting against every grain of civility and maritime law on the high seas.

This is not the first time the China and Vietnam has clashed in the South China Sea. There is bad blood on both sides, so civility is not even in the equation here.

We all know that these are not fishermen. They're Vietnamese navy, perhaps auxiliary navy, employing fishing boats. Simply chasing them down and ejecting them will not even deter them, so ramming and sinking one of them is a way of sending the message that China is willing to play hardball if necessary, without actually escalating things into a shoot-out.

 

[Jeff Head]

... so ramming and sinking one of them is a way of sending the message that China is willing to play hardball if necessary, without actually escalating things into a shoot-out.

Phrase it however you wish.

When a large ship, intentionally rams a smaller vessel to sink it...you have already escalated it to life or death conditions.

Whether they are using a 40mm or 76mm projectile...or a 5,000 ton one, the mortal peril is the same.

 

[Jeff Head]

But so many questions.

Where did this incident take place relative to the rig?

The longer, youtube video I posted makes it pretty clear. You can see the Chinese operation in one segment, behind the fleeing Vietnamese vessels.

It didn't seem like either of the two Vietnamese boats even bothered to steer hard port or starboard away from the Chinese vessel. Why?

There were two Vietnamese vessels, and also a third vessel. Those other two were on the other side of the Vietnamese vessels that was rammed. Turning away would have been a hazard to the other vessels on the other side.

This seems more like a skirmish between two groups of fishing vessels.

Coule be.

However, I am willing to bet that there are government personnel on all of those vesssels...on both sides.

Without more knowledge or evidence of the situation leading up to the sinking, who's to say there wasn't a provocation from the Vietnamese side or not?

Which is exactly the point I made in my post. But if the Vietnamese did make a life endagering provocation, you would reasonably expect evidence of it to be shown by the Chinese to justify what they did in sinking the Vietnamese boat.

 

[joshuatree]

The longer, youtube video I posted makes it pretty clear. You can see the Chinese operation in one segment, behind the fleeing Vietnamese vessels.

Are you talking about 0:11? Is that the oil rig? Or you mean Chinese operation as in the other Chinese vessels constituting their "fleet" in this footage?

If that is the rig, then an even more suspicious question of what are "fishing" boats doing anywhere near a hotly contested area that's already known for a month? And no CG vessels anywhere?

There were two Vietnamese vessels, and also a third vessel. Those other two were on the other side of the Vietnamese vessels that was rammed. Turning away would have been a hazard to the other vessels on the other side.

Hard starboard towards the cam is still very viable for the sunken boat as it was the one out of three on the starboard side. I just don't feel like it tried that hard to get out of the way of the larger Chinese vessel.

However, I am willing to bet that there are government personnel on all of those vesssels...on both sides.

Which is exactly the point I made in my post. But if the Vietnamese did make a life endagering provocation, you would reasonably expect evidence of it to be shown by the Chinese to justify what they did in sinking the Vietnamese boat.

That's just it, if there are govt personnel on board and if this was near the rig, this could be the result of some standoff that who knows lasted how long prior to the camera footage. Could have been some sort of red line drawn, was crossed, and an "example" had to be made.

 

[solarz]

Phrase it however you wish.

When a large ship, intentionally rams a smaller vessel to sink it...you have already escalated it to life or death conditions.

Whether they are using a 40mm or 76mm projectile...or a 5,000 ton one, the mortal peril is the same.

If that were the case, the why didn't the shooting start? Like I said, this is not the first time things like this happened, and this is very much a military-vs-military situation (or rather, paramilitary), so there are rules of engagement involved.

Notice how the Vietnamese did not respond to the ramming beyond raising protests. If the Chinese had opened fire, do you think the Vietnamese would not return fire?

So obviously, ramming is NOT the same thing as shooting.

Furthermore, China is not interested in helping Vietnam internationalize this dispute, so China has no incentive to respond to Vietnamese accusations at all.