China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Brumby]

So what exactly does Shinzo Abe mean when he says Japan would "make every effort" to assist SE Asian countries against China? Does "every effort" include sending the Japanese Maritime "Self-Defense" Force assets to attack Chinese ships and planes in the South China Sea? Will Mr. Abe draw red lines in the SCS?

You are reading too much into his statement. Japan is constitutionally bound not to go any where near to what you are suggesting. I am assuming efforts would be targeted at provision or assistance with enforcement assets e.g. coast guard vessels and or maybe with intelligence sharing to enable better deployment of assets to troubled spots.

 

[A.Man]

Vietnamese Video: One Incident

[video]http://vnexpress.net/parser.php?id=19208&t=2&ft=video&si=1000000&ap=1&ishome=0[/video]

 

[PanAsian]

Vietnamese Video: One Incident

[video]http://vnexpress.net/parser.php?id=19208&t=2&ft=video&si=1000000&ap=1&ishome=0[/video]

That's pretty bad, if ramming to the point of sinking is treated as nothing noteworthy by those doing it, even if they were harassed before, then I won't be surprised if we see armed encounters and shootouts soon.

 

[mr.bean]

That's pretty bad, if ramming to the point of sinking is treated as nothing noteworthy by those doing it, even if they were harassed before, then I won't be surprised if we see armed encounters and shootouts soon.

well the Chinese aren't going to let these ''fishing'' boats screw around their brand new billion dollar oil rig, so if they insist on going over there then don't be surprised the Chinese will greet them warmly. I don't think any armed encounters or shootouts are likely because that will be a very bad move for the viets. they will likely keep the activities to boat ramming and water cannon shooting for now.

 

[plawolf]

First of all, the quality of the video is poor. Surprisingly poor in this day and age. That makes it hard to make assessments on several critical factors, such as the heading and course of the two ships just before the sinking. The video also starts in the middle of the incident.

But even looking at the video as is, there are many important factors that should be highlighted.

Firstly, that Vietnamese fishing boat was not just innocently sailing about minding its own business. Notice the ship with the tall mast, what this version of the clip does not show was that before the large Chinese ship came into the picture, the Vietnamese fishing boat looks to be extremely close to, or even in contact with the other, presumably Chinese, ship.

So with that critical omitted detail added, it looks like the Vietnamese fishing boat was either harassing or itself ramming the smaller Chinese ship first, and the larger Chinese ship came in to put itself between the Vietnamese boat and smaller Chinese ship - in order words, this validates the Chinese position throughout that its ships were only acting in defensive mode.

Peaceful protest is one thing, you only have yourself to blame if you are stupid enough to start a ramming game when the other side has far bigger, faster and stronger ships.

 

[Blackstone]

That's pretty bad, if ramming to the point of sinking is treated as nothing noteworthy by those doing it, even if they were harassed before, then I won't be surprised if we see armed encounters and shootouts soon.

Yes, the ramming is bad and someone could have been hurt, but whatever happened to the old wisdom if you don't want to be run over by trains, don't sit on train tracks? Isn't it true that people that put themselves in harms way have no one to blame but themselves when things go wrong? As for shooting, China already enjoys overwhelming advantage with "white hulls," so unless the Vietnamese shoots first, there should be no shootings.

 

[mr.bean]

Yes, the ramming is bad and someone could have been hurt, but whatever happened to the old wisdom if you don't want to be run over by trains, don't sit on train tracks? Isn't it true that people that put themselves in harms way have no one to blame but themselves when things go wrong? As for shooting, China already enjoys overwhelming advantage with "white hulls," so unless the Vietnamese shoots first, there should be no shootings.

yeah everyone knows just what kind of game they are all playing out there. those are no innocent viet fishermen who just happen to be there plying their trade to make a living and the same goes for the Chinese fishing boats. those are all militia or navy people in fishing boats. in this kind of confrontation they need all kinds of vessels in the game, fishing boats vs fishing boats, coast guard vs coast guard, navy vs navy. you don't send a navy ship to ram a fishing boat.

 

[Jeff Head]

We are not likely to know what went on before what is shown in this video that may have provoked the Chinese.

Let's take a hard look at several of the frames of the video itself.

From the video, you cannot see any appreciably smaller Chinese vessel near the Vietnamese vessel. In the two pics that follow, you can clearly see another vessel behind the Vietnamese vessel...which may or may not be Chinese. However, in the second picture, it is clear that this vessel, whomever it may belong to, is actually larger than the Vietnamese vessel. The Vietnamese vessel could have been harassing that vessel, we simply do not know. But the differences in size between those two tells you that the Vietnamese vessel was not a mortal hazard to that other vessel. That is clearly not the case with the size differential in what was chasing the Vietnamese vessel down.

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What you do see, and what is unquestionable, is that for whatever reason the much larger Chinese vessel chases down the smaller Vietnamese vessel, And it does not at all try and intercede itself between the two vessels. No, it is on the near side of the Vietnamese vessel, overtaking it. Why? It shows us. It very intentionally turns into the Vietnamese vessel. Anyone who has been at sea will know what that will do, when a larger displacement vessel turns into the side of a smaller vessel. Its simple physics.

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The Chinese vessel does this once, and then, catches up, and does so again. Except the next time, it drives further abreast of the Vietnamese vessel, so as to get better leverage. This time, they are able to turn into it the Vietrnamese vessel far enough forward to use their own displacement to force the smaller ship across their bow and seriously impact it amidships.

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The reesult is a fairly forgone conclusion.

The larger Chinese ship intentionally sank the smaller Vietnamese ship. It is clear that it intended to force the smaller ship across its bows because it repeatedly attempted just that and did not cease until it had accomplished it.

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In the end, it appears that many vessels stood by to help the Vietnamese sailors who were put into the sea as a result.

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IMHO, unless that Vietnamese vessel had done something similarly life-threatening to a Chinese vessel or structure, there was no excuse for what happened here. Even if the Vietnamese ship was near a Chinese oil rig. Even if they harassed a Chinese vessel...unless of course they tried something similar and put Chinese lives at risk.

As stated, that larger Chinese vessel clearly did not simply intercede and place itself between the Vietnamese vessel and the other vessel behind it. It was on the wrong side of the Vietnamese vessel to do that. No, it clearly meant to hit, and turn the Vietnamese vessel.

It is clear that the larger Chinese vessel, for whatever reasons, chased down the smaller Vietnamese vessel on the high seas...which was clearly attempting to flee...and it turned into that vessel and pushed it across its own bow...and sank it.

As I say, we do not know the provocation...but that is clearly what happened, and, IMHO, it cannot be sugar-coated by anything on that video.

 

[Blackstone]

We are not likely to know what went on before what is shown in this video that may have provoked the Chinese.
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IMHO, unless that Vietnamese vessel had done something similarly life-threatening to a Chinese vessel or structure, there was no excuse for what happened here. Even if the Vietnamese ship was near a Chinese oil rig. Even if they harassed a Chinese vessel...unbless of course they tried something similar and put chinese lives at risk.

As stated, that larger Chinese vessel clearly did not simply intercede and place itself between the Vietnamese vessel and the other vessel behind it. It was on the wrong side of the Vietnamese vessel to do that. No, it clearly meant to hit, and turn the Vietnamese vessel.

It is clear that the larger Chinese vessel, for whatever reasons, chased down the smaller Vietnamese vessel on the high seas...which was clearly attempting to flee...and it turned into that vessel and pushed it across its own bow...and sank it.

As I say, we do not know the provocation...but that is clearly what happened, and, IMHO, it cannot be sugar-coated by anything on that video.

Jeff-
Well reasoned argument, as usual, and excellent analysis on the course of events on the video. The other side of the coin is Vietnam's use of 'heckler's veto' and the notion if one goes out looking for trouble, one shouldn't complain if one finds it. I suppose some would retort with proportional response, but that gets back to your observation that the video doesn't show what might have provoked the Chinese ship into action.

 

[kwaigonegin]

As the saying goes you have he said, she said and then you the truth which most times is somewhere in the middle. If China wants to defend their actions then they need to provide video themselves .. better a longer one. The video from the Vietnamese side shows one thing but it's probably edited from a time standpoint to show just impact instance. If their vessel were the aggressor earlier on the clip is probably cut and edited out for public consumption but again unless we see videos from BOTH sides the only thing we have is footage from one and we make a judgement from that.

I mean it's human nature.. who in the right mind is going to show something that incriminates themselves!