China's SCS Strategy Thread

Today at 7:19 AM
... Mattis takes hard line on China in Singapore speech
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... and the article moves to Korea etc.; it's on top of us.cnn.com right now
and now noticed the tweet
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"Legitimate" and "indisputable" for
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to deploy military hardware on its own inherent territory, says He Lei, head of Chinese delegation to Shangri-La Dialogue in response to Mattis who accused China of "intimidation and coercion"in the South China Sea

DeqfqffU0AADdjl.jpg
 

xiabonan

Junior Member
The real question is, despite all the tough talk from the US, what can it actually do? And how focused and persistent can it be? This has been bugging me for years, it's not the first time to hear American tough talk on SCS topics, and all that they've done is Freedom of Navigation Operations/Patrols, maybe sometimes within 12 nautical miles of those artificial islands. But apart from these, it seems like there's nothing much else and even that it's been doing it on/off, at best intermittently and not in a coherent and consistent manner.

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure the US can exert immense pressure on China in the SCS if it does it well. Several things I can think of at the top of my head are:
  • Regular patrols and exercises (the point being regular)
  • Regular fly-overs
  • Establishment of military bases in the Philippines and Vietnam
  • Working together with regional forces militarily and economically
  • Involve Japan and Korea, and maybe India, and exert pressure on other fronts such as the Diaoyu islands
  • Getting European and North American allies and countries like Aus and NZ to issue joint statements
The US did do some or all of these things, but never together and in a consistent and persistent manner. That's why I think the US can't do much to stop China. China actually has a strategy, and is taking the steps necessary to carry out that strategy consistently and persistently. SCS is China's core interest therefore it is always focused, always thinking about it, always doing something, and always working towards its goal. But for the US, there are just so many policy considerations and many of them are self-conflicting. If you want to contain China, sacrifice something to gain and consolidate your allies in the Asia-Pacific region; If you want to keep your military advantage, actually TRAIN your sailors and stop them from colliding with merchant ships and build new vessels faster and in greater number than China; If you're worried about China's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles, develop new special missile defence systems but I rarely hear about consistent action on that; If you want to foster greater relationships with regional allies, stop calling Duterte names and quitting the TPP; If you want your European allies to support you in SCS, stop slapping them tariffs.

A nation, just like a person, might have several objectives at any given time. The key is to prioritise, make compromises on some to gain progress on others. Does Nixon like China? I'd say definitely no, but he still came to China to establish relationships, why? Because he needs China to fight the USSR! If Trump's Nixon, he would probably said "fuck you commies I'm going to obliterate you both!" What will that lead to? That will only lead to China and Russia working together!

The US is still undoubtedly the strongest and most powerful nation on the surface of the earth, but it is simply spending too much time, effort, money on non-issues, like why the hell did America spend over a decade in Afghan and Iraq? Why is that you want to fight Assad but fail to work with Iran, knowing that Iran is probably helping Assad?

Too much of its power is wasted on non-issues abroad and nonsensical political struggle at home, it's almost become hilarious to watch for me personally, as a Chinese.

China has many of its own problems, but we acknowledge those problems, we work towards solving those problems, as a nation, as a people. We have very limited resources given our huge population, but we devote precious resources to where they are most needed, and not waste them on stupid issues and get caught up in non-productive arguments.
 
now I listened to (don't know how to link that report here)
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Senior Chinese official: China doesn't militarize South China Sea
***


according to Hegel, after thesis and antithesis, a synthesis should come
(OK it's been several decades so I hope I recall this correctly, LOL)
 

timepass

Brigadier
China sends warning to two U.S. Navy ships in South China Sea...

China-sends-warning-to-two-US-Navy-ships-in-South-China-Sea.jpg


"China announced Sunday it sent warships to challenge two U.S. Navy vessels that sailed through disputed waters in the South China Sea.

The Chinese confronted the two ships -- the Higgins destroyer and the Antietam cruiser -- and ordered them to leave as they sailed within 12 nautical miles of the Paracel Islands, an archipelago in the waters over which Beijing claims total sovereignty."

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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
now I listened to (don't know how to link that report here)
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Senior Chinese official: China doesn't militarize South China Sea
***
according to Hegel, after thesis and antithesis, a synthesis should come
(OK it's been several decades so I hope I recall this correctly, LOL)

It is not Hegel it is more like Newton Action - Reaction thing
The more threatening the US the more will be the reaction to it as simple as that
Were the Phillipine and US not aggressive with their law suit etc maybe we don't see those island But water under the bridge now
Now US general talk of taking down those island Talk is cheap an it is not easy
Underwater great wall inoperation

img-d4adcebda6d24b1edc2438427790f83a-jpg.477590
img-ca65ab0e8e06d95b479ddc0021ad31cc-jpg.477591
img-cea48b2f80c82dde366757b63b17e579-jpg.477592


img-5de95c16e2789ec7045833418ad25b18-jpg.477584
img-cda500154a2e8e9af138f9c546bed860-jpg.477585
 
It is not Hegel it is more like Newton Action - Reaction thing
The more threatening the US the more will be the reaction to it as simple as that
Were the Phillipine and US not aggressive with their law suit etc maybe we don't see those island But water under the bridge now
Now US general talk of taking down those island Talk is cheap an it is not easy
...
yeah if the US had wanted to do something about the Chinese installations in the SCS, they should had done it while the features were like those to the left, not the the right, in:



MischiefReef.jpg

(by the way the pictures come from the article you posted in
PLAN SCS Bases/Islands/Vessels (Not a Strategy Page)
thread)
 
after I had read
Mattis: U.S. Not Deterred by China from Freedom-of-Navigation Operations
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I googled this string from inside of it:

Chinese+President+Xi+Jinping+said+in+the+Rose+Garden+at+the+White+House+his+country+would+not+be+militarizing+the+Spratly+Islands

and my top hit is
Xi denies China turning artificial islands into military bases
September 25, 2015
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containing

"... Xi, however, denied that militarization was taking place.

“Relevant construction activity that China is undertaking in the Nansha Islands does not target or impact any country and there is no intention to militarize,” Xi said, using the Chinese name for the disputed Spratly archipelago. ..."
 

weig2000

Captain
after I had read
Mattis: U.S. Not Deterred by China from Freedom-of-Navigation Operations
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I googled this string from inside of it:

Chinese+President+Xi+Jinping+said+in+the+Rose+Garden+at+the+White+House+his+country+would+not+be+militarizing+the+Spratly+Islands

and my top hit is
Xi denies China turning artificial islands into military bases
September 25, 2015
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containing

"... Xi, however, denied that militarization was taking place.

“Relevant construction activity that China is undertaking in the Nansha Islands does not target or impact any country and there is no intention to militarize,” Xi said, using the Chinese name for the disputed Spratly archipelago. ..."

The US media has repeatedly accused that China had broken "Xi's pledge" not to militarize Nansha island. What Xi said at the time that China did not have the "intention" to militarize Nansha Island, but Chinese government has also repeatedly said since those islands will have some necessary defense facilities, alongside other civilian facilities, and, the nature and the amount of defense facilities and equipment will depend on the military threats they face. With all the FON operations conducted by the US, many within the Chinese territory waters, it's not surprising that China will deploy more defense assets on the islands. I fully expect more to come despite/because of Secretary Mattis's threat.

Xi's statement is NOT a pledge, not a signed agreement between governments, not a formal treaty - heck, even signed agreements and formal treaties are violated or thrown away like garbage these days by some governments. They are statements of goodwill and intention that are also dependent upon others' related actions.
 

davidau

Senior Member
Registered Member
Today at 7:19 AM
and now noticed the tweet
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If the West could remember the recent history of opium war, gunboat diplomacy, unequal treaty, concessions that were imposed by the colonisists on the weak and corrupted Qing dynasty... these humiliations are still raw and real. Again, if the West care to study Chinese history about those islands, islets, rocks, reef and atols..they have been used for fishing by the Chinese fishermen since or before the great Admiral Zhenghe [ Ming dynasty about 1800s?]. He sailed around SE Asia and onto the Horn of Africa for a few voyages without claiming an inch of land as Chines territory contrary to now the new western power, US, UK and France now want to inflame & intimidate the calm [used to be] seas into naval confrontation. why ? Chinese want harmony, win-win; US & Co want zero sum..pure & simple. China is not the weak-easy-to- take-prey as she used to be, now she has the will, the capabilty to win a war should a war be imposed on her territory. The islets, atols, rocks, reefs in the South China Sea enclosed by the 9 dashed lines have always been the legimate and indisputable territory hundred of years ago.. Remember.. an adage by Chaiman Mao...power grows out of the barrel of a gun....



"Legitimate" and "indisputable" for
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to deploy military hardware on its own inherent territory, says He Lei, head of Chinese delegation to Shangri-La Dialogue in response to Mattis who accused China of "intimidation and coercion"in the South China Sea

DeqfqffU0AADdjl.jpg
 
Last edited:

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Now south China sea is close to China that is why the name. Now why should busy body who live across the ocean feel threaten when all the relevant country has no problem ? Ok there is dispute but let live peacefully while they sort it out among themselves
Free passage has never been restrict or endanger in anyway make you wonder who is the aggressor here This article clearly articulate what is the problem here via Raphael

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Written by
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on 2018-06-02


Yesterday, US Defense Secretary James “Mad Dog” Mattis delivered a speech attempting to justify the ever more frequent US provocations against China in the South China Sea. He
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,

“The US will continue to pursue a constructive, results-oriented relationship with China, cooperating when possible and competing vigorously where we must. China’s policy in the South China Sea stands in stark contrast to the openness our strategy promises, it calls into question China’s broader goals”.

In reality, China’s goals are clear. Beijing seeks to confirm its sovereignty over a Sea on its maritime border for the same purposes that in the 1920s, the founder of the Turkish Republic, Ataturk sought to confirm the same status over the Turkish Straits. In 1841, the western powers effectively bullied Turkey into signing the London Straits Convention which while confirming the Ottoman Empire’s sovereignty over the Straits, also prohibited any warships other than Ottoman ships from passing through the straits during war time. This had the desired effect of provoking further hostilities between the Ottoman Empire and the Russian Empire, all the while British and French ships had open access to all sides of the Mediterranean.

After the First World War, the victorious western powers attempted to remove Turkish sovereignty over the Turkish Straits by making them an international zone under no one state’s authority. Ataturk refused and as a result the 1936 Montreux Convention allowed for all nations with ports on the Black Sea to pass through the Turkish Straits in times of war or peace while foreign ships would be banned in war time. It is this convention which continues to govern the status of the Turkish Straits to this day.

In The South China Sea, Beijing wants essentially what Turkey wanted and got in the age of Ataturk. China has no desire to close the South China Sea to the wider world, let alone the ASEAN countries who contest sovereignty over parts of the Sea. Instead, China seeks to use its military might and traditional role as the major power of the region in order to ensure that foreign provocations from powers who do not border the Sea are not able to effectively colonise the South China Sea as the western powers attempted to colonise the Turkish Straits in the early 20th century.

The dominance of US ships in the important Strait of Malacca which links the Asia-Pacific region to the Indian Ocean, has only further served to convince China of the importance of staking its sovereign claims to the South China Sea. Thus, the dispute has nothing to do with what the US deceptively calls “freedom of navigation” but has everything to do with China making sure that in a time of war, it is not a distant foreign superpower that controls crucial sea routes which border China.

To this end, China has always been willing to cooperate with ASEAN members with claims to the Sea just as Ataturk was willing to cooperate with fellow powers with ports on the Black Sea. The
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between Philippine President Duterte and the Chinese government over mutual exploitation of South China Sea resources further confirms that China’s attitude is one that is constructive rather than threatening when it comes to working cooperatively with nearby states whose soil borders the Sea.

The only time China would ever militarily confront an ASEAN state over Sea claims is in the event of the US becoming a de-facto military protectorate of an ASEAN state. In this sense, any ASEAN member state that resorts to hiding behind US power instead of negotiating a diplomatic solution to joint South China Sea claims with Beijing, is ultimately signing its death warrant in the event of a wider Sino-US war in the region.

Just as Britain and France were all too happy to see Russia and Ottoman Turkey fight throughout the 18th and 19th centuries while they busily colonised Asia and later Africa too, the US today would be all too happy to see countries like Vietnam or The Philippines fight China with US weapons. This way, the US gets to successfully cause diplomatic and money wasting problems for China, gets to test its weapons against China’s and even if the worst happens. it will be states in south east Asia rather than US soil which will be destroyed in such a conflict.

This is why the best “offence” for ASEAN states that still have disputes with China is a defensive posture not against Beijing but against Washington’s gamesmanship in the region. If the US was removed as a factor in south east Asia, it is certain that China would work with its ASEAN partners to pursue the kind of win-win solutions that Beijing and Manila have embarked on since the arrival of President Duterte and likewise, those embarked on when Ataturk and Lenin ended centuries of mutual hostility between two great Eurasian powers. It is therefore the responsibility of ASEAN nations to maintain good trading relations with both China and the US, but when it comes to military provocations, the best ASEAN can say to the US is “thanks but no thanks”.

Thus, it becomes perfectly obvious that China is asserting its claims without ambiguity, not because it wants to threaten ASEAN states but because China does not want to see the US embarked on de-facto maritime colonisation of Asian waterways.

It can therefore be surmised that the South China Sea issue is only a “South China Sea conflict” if there is an aggressive party. The clear aggressor is the United States and the sooner the ASEAN states on the South China Sea understand this, the sooner they can reach a win-win agreement with Beijing that will be good for all of Asia.
 
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