China's SCS Strategy Thread

[sanblvd]

PR is part of the problem, but it's not really China's problem in that the key reason China gets such bad press is because the western mainstream press are fundamentally biased against China.

All they have to do is add 'state mouthpiece' to describe any news outlets remotely sympathetic to China and their brainwashed audience will automatically discount anything and everything said by those sources as they have been trained to do.

What China really is lacking in its diplomacy that is the chief cause of others taking liberty is a lack of use of its stick to punish those that cross it.

Sadly, China is behaving too civilised in the power based world we currently live in.

The so-called rules based world order simply does not exist so long as the US and its allies treat international laws as only something that happen to countries they don't like.

The likes of Vietnam, the Phillipines and India think they can push China around because China doesn't want to hit them.

No amount of PR or talking will get them to change that view. The only way to get them to change their behaviour is if China makes it clear that there will be real and immediate costs to crossing China, as the US demonstrates at every opportunity.

But then, China will end up being no better than the US if it behaves that way.

That is true, China's foreign policy during the last 20 years (except for last 5 years) has been really mellow and weak. This is the reason that weak nation such as Philippine, Vietnam can openly challenge China because they think China cares too much for peace, and they were betting that with US's backing, they can gain advantage from China without firing a shot, due to China's overwhelming importance on the emphasis on peace.

But they miscalculated, not did China not roll over as expected per China's previous behavior, instead it pushed back harder than ever before and this surprised them, so then they ask US to directly intervene and all US can do is send ships once every few weeks/months. I think finally China has demonstrated to the world that, yes I want peace, but not peace at the expense of my territory integrity and core interest.

I think the next killer move for China is to work with Philippine and joint develop SCS with full Chinese control, but give Philippine a big share of the profit, to send out a message to the rest that if you work with me, I will help you, I will share my pie with you. However if you work against me, there will be no pie for you. Philippine and China should joint develop part of SCS that are disputed with Philippine and Vietnam, and cutting Vietnam's share to 0, this will force Vietnam to work with China on other parts of SCS and China then can offer the same to Vietnam as well, but if Vietnam disagrees, China should go ahead and start to develop on its own or with another 3rd party in SCS.

Basically now China need to send out a message that whoever cooperate and come to my side sooner will enjoys more benefit, but the longer you wait, the less I will give you, and if you don't come to me at all, there will be NOTHING left for you.

 

[vesicles]

That is true, China's foreign policy during the last 20 years (except for last 5 years) has been really mellow and weak. This is the reason that weak nation such as Philippine, Vietnam can openly challenge China because they think China cares too much for peace, and they were betting that with US's backing, they can gain advantage from China without firing a shot, due to China's overwhelming importance on the emphasis on peace.

But they miscalculated, not did China not roll over as expected per China's previous behavior, instead it pushed back harder than ever before and this surprised them, so then they ask US to directly intervene and all US can do is send ships once every few weeks/months. I think finally China has demonstrated to the world that, yes I want peace, but not peace at the expense of my territory integrity and core interest.

I think the next killer move for China is to work with Philippine and joint develop SCS with full Chinese control, but give Philippine a big share of the profit, to send out a message to the rest that if you work with me, I will help you, I will share my pie with you. However if you work against me, there will be no pie for you. Philippine and China should joint develop part of SCS that are disputed with Philippine and Vietnam, and cutting Vietnam's share to 0, this will force Vietnam to work with China on other parts of SCS and China then can offer the same to Vietnam as well, but if Vietnam disagrees, China should go ahead and start to develop on its own or with another 3rd party in SCS.

Basically now China need to send out a message that whoever cooperate and come to my side sooner will enjoys more benefit, but the longer you wait, the less I will give you, and if you don't come to me at all, there will be NOTHING left for you.

Yes, I think this is exactly what China is doing with the Philippines. The Chinese gave them boat of investment and aid money when the new Philippines president changed the direction and became China-friendly.

China is promising a lot of carrots to those who are willing to take them. The big stick is still hidden for the most part. China would wave it a little every once in a while but still has not shown its willingness to use it to hammer others.

I do believe that China needs to be cautious when to use its big stick, especially when its stick is still not the biggest. Not sure if you have played baseball before, but you would look kinda embarrassing if you miss the ball when you swing your bat too hard... Even professionals miss and they miss all the time (watch a few MLB games and you will see that elite baseball players miss their hits all the time). It's less of an issue when a proven player miss his hits. It becomes more damaging to your street cred when you are a rookie.

China is now more of a rookie. I think China is looking for that perfect throw, where it is not too fast and not too curved. Perfect to hit it out of the park. Too bad, China is now getting a lot of curve balls... So China is being cautious. Additionally, China's bases are still mostly empty. it is waiting to get its bases loaded and then look to hit a homer when the chance comes. what I mean is that China is waiting for that opportune moment to maximize its gain.

 

[sanblvd]

Yes, I think this is exactly what China is doing with the Philippines. The Chinese gave them boat of investment and aid money when the new Philippines president changed the direction and became China-friendly.

China is promising a lot of carrots to those who are willing to take them. The big stick is still hidden for the most part. China would wave it a little every once in a while but still has not shown its willingness to use it to hammer others.

I do believe that China needs to be cautious when to use its big stick, especially when its stick is still not the biggest. Not sure if you have played baseball before, but you would look kinda embarrassing if you miss the ball when you swing your bat too hard... Even professionals miss and they miss all the time (watch a few MLB games and you will see that elite baseball players miss their hits all the time). It's less of an issue when a proven player miss his hits. It becomes more damaging to your street cred when you are a rookie.

China is now more of a rookie. I think China is looking for that perfect throw, where it is not too fast and not too curved. Perfect to hit it out of the park. Too bad, China is now getting a lot of curve balls... So China is being cautious. Additionally, China's bases are still mostly empty. it is waiting to get its bases loaded and then look to hit a homer when the chance comes. what I mean is that China is waiting for that opportune moment to maximize its gain.

I'm not familiar with baseball but yes I get what you mean, in this case China cannot use stick just yet, China's back yard is not like US's 19th century, because when US dominated Latin American there is no one there to stop her, UK was the closely that can counter US in Latin America, but UK was too busy with Europe so that gives US the freehand to use sticks+carrots, not so for China, I mean China's current military is absolutely overwhelming vs all of the ASEAN combined, but behind them there is US, so its not good idea for China to pushes all of her neighbor into US camp. Unless China's military is also so overwhelming over US as well. Or China open up its own front in Latin America, build up their military for them to challenge US, but I think China should not do that, because that would really piss off Americans, and history has shown that its not a good idea to challenge US head on directly, its better to play Sun Tzu the Chinese way, use indirect method to achieve your objective.

Also I think that China has weaponize carrot into stick, for example trading with China has became a very large part of all ASEAN economy, if their country's action hurts China, China can just ban some of the trade and tourism, and this alone is a GIANT stick. And of course, just like how US is counter balance China using some ASEAN country, China can too play that game, ASEAN itself is not united, some country are friend some are rivals, China can support some ASEAN country against others etc.. there is so much card China can play its not even funny.

 

[FactsPlease]

I have read over 5 of his book include this one. He is a very good author, one of the most non biased geopolitics writer, he don't see China as this evil empire, he says it himself that China is a legitimate power trying to gain influence just as US has also gain influence its own backyard, however its very clear that he tries to be non biased but nonetheless he is very biased. He wrote that book during the most difficult time in SCS. But his assessment overall is correct, Vietnam has the most potential in ASEAN to be use to offset against China because Vietnam has Confucius work ethics just like China, Korea and Japan do, and Vietnam teach their children to hate China growing up, their ancient history textbook in school has all the Chinese emperor etc... but as the bad guys lol. Its like reading bad fan fiction.

The whole book is pretty much counter balancing against China, use Vietnam, Philippine with US backing etc... but I wish he would go further, because China too can play that game, China can also use Cambodia and Laos to counter balance Vietnam. Because if you look at the map, for almost 2000 years the entire south east Asia was dominated by Khmer empire (Cambodia) and Siamese empire (Thailand) also for almost 1500 years Vietnam as you know it only occupy the very north part of it around Hanoi, but after the last Ming occupation and withdraw from Vietnam, Vietnam started a vast invasion southward Khmer and that's how Vietnam got its long shape that it has today. It was only stopped when France invaded Indo Asia and conquered both Vietnam and Cambodia, so that's how the border stabilized, if its was not for France, Vietnam would have conquer entire Cambodia, Laos then Thailand. Vietnam's ultimate goal is to have its own mini-China in the South, so one day it can stand up to the real China in the north to claim who really have the mandate of heaven.

And its no accident that Cambodia, Laos and Thailand are very good friends of China, they fear Vietnam as much as Vietnam fear China. But Robert didn't even once mention this dynamic, which is very interesting read.

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This article, good read.

I believe he successfully described how fearless Vietnam can be, esp in confronting China. That part could be very true. So, even China scored some in ASEAN talk, if Viet persisted in this argument, Kaplan still mark a point correctly.
On the other hand, Malaysia is buying OPV from China - perhaps even more to follow including LPD - indicating more cards at China's hand. That is what Kaplan didn't foresee (it only happen after his book published).

 

[sanblvd]

I believe he successfully described how fearless Vietnam can be, esp in confronting China. That part could be very true. So, even China scored some in ASEAN talk, if Viet persisted in this argument, Kaplan still mark a point correctly.
On the other hand, Malaysia is buying OPV from China - perhaps even more to follow including LPD - indicating more cards at China's hand. That is what Kaplan didn't foresee (it only happen after his book published).

Let's put it this way, Kaplan sees only what he wants to see thus only write what he wants to writes, he sees a growing China and grow in fear of it, and he is looking for who is best to support to counter China? He sees Vietnam and he writes how fierce, how brave the Vietnamese are bla bla bla.

But in the same book the way he talks about China there is no similar description even thought China is absolutely the most fierce party in this dispute. I remember he didn't spend more than 2 paragraph on China, but he spend like a whole chapter going into Vietnam history, their resistance against China etc (almost Neo-Nazi sentiment if you ask me)... I remember the way he talked about China is that the Chinese official didn't want to talk to him at first, but he fake took the Chinese perception to get the Chinese to open up... who dressed very badly. Its been 2 years since I read it, but you can go back and verify it.

There is another chapter in his other book called "Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power" in which he talks about India's 2002 Gujarat riots, this was a riot when India's current Modi was in charge of Gujarat. Basically Modi's government officially sanctioned like a week of killing and looting of Muslim population in his province, which Robert actually did a decent job of describing the reality of what happens (the book write written when Modi was not PM yet).

Anyway, he started that chapter by saying something like... This is what happen in India, but I still believe India's democracy is in better position to deal with ethic strife than the authorization China. LOL, he sees things as they are, and are openly biased towards it. There is really nothing else to say.

 

[Dizasta1]

I'm not familiar with baseball but yes I get what you mean, in this case China cannot use stick just yet, China's back yard is not like US's 19th century, because when US dominated Latin American there is no one there to stop her, UK was the closely that can counter US in Latin America, but UK was too busy with Europe so that gives US the freehand to use sticks+carrots, not so for China, I mean China's current military is absolutely overwhelming vs all of the ASEAN combined, but behind them there is US, so its not good idea for China to pushes all of her neighbor into US camp. Unless China's military is also so overwhelming over US as well. Or China open up its own front in Latin America, build up their military for them to challenge US, but I think China should not do that, because that would really piss off Americans, and history has shown that its not a good idea to challenge US head on directly, its better to play Sun Tzu the Chinese way, use indirect method to achieve your objective.

Also I think that China has weaponize carrot into stick, for example trading with China has became a very large part of all ASEAN economy, if their country's action hurts China, China can just ban some of the trade and tourism, and this alone is a GIANT stick. And of course, just like how US is counter balance China using some ASEAN country, China can too play that game, ASEAN itself is not united, some country are friend some are rivals, China can support some ASEAN country against others etc.. there is so much card China can play its not even funny.

What China requires is firm, solid and close allies. Allies who are strategically positioned to be included in a military alliance. For that to happen, such allies need to be economically, politically and militarily stable and strong. First choice to be from China's own neighborhood. Russia is a powerful ally to China, so is Pakistan. And if only, Hindustan could stop getting suckered into being a western ally. Then the Asian Continent would enjoy greater harmony, prosperity and power. The only problem with allies, is that they tend to get carried away with their own nationalistic agendas. It's quite evident in the way EU has proposed forming it's own military which would render NATO redundant and obsolete. It's hard to find good allies these days, but if China can maintain a solid peace with countries such as Vietnam, Hindustan and Japan who are it's immediate neighbors and rivals. Then China can navigate it's way toward forming a military alliance with neighbors, and would rival to that of NATO. When something along these lines takes shape, only then would America think twice about backing it's so-called allies.

China will be on par with America militarily, give or take a decade or two. But it would still need strong and stable allies which would respond in kind, if ever there is a gang of bullies trying to intimidate the neighborhood.

As for Hindustan, it's sad to see that it has not taken the opportunity to really exploit the tremendous growth in the Asian Continent. This is despite of joining the SCO. The world would look a lot different, when countries like Russia, China, Hindustan, Vietnam, Pakistan, Malaysia and Iran come together as allies, forming a deep rooted economic, social and military alliance. Now that is an Asian Continent Alliance no one would think about messing with. Doesn't matter how powerful you maybe, having strong and stable allies, puts "you" in control of the situation.

 

[delft]

Not forming such a military alliance shows up NATO as something mostly relevant as a vehicle to sell US military equipment to their "allies". And a way to destroy countries like Libya.

 

[PanAsian]

Let's put it this way, Kaplan sees only what he wants to see thus only write what he wants to writes, he sees a growing China and grow in fear of it, and he is looking for who is best to support to counter China? He sees Vietnam and he writes how fierce, how brave the Vietnamese are bla bla bla.

But in the same book the way he talks about China there is no similar description even thought China is absolutely the most fierce party in this dispute. I remember he didn't spend more than 2 paragraph on China, but he spend like a whole chapter going into Vietnam history, their resistance against China etc (almost Neo-Nazi sentiment if you ask me)... I remember the way he talked about China is that the Chinese official didn't want to talk to him at first, but he fake took the Chinese perception to get the Chinese to open up... who dressed very badly. Its been 2 years since I read it, but you can go back and verify it.

There is another chapter in his other book called "Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power" in which he talks about India's 2002 Gujarat riots, this was a riot when India's current Modi was in charge of Gujarat. Basically Modi's government officially sanctioned like a week of killing and looting of Muslim population in his province, which Robert actually did a decent job of describing the reality of what happens (the book write written when Modi was not PM yet).

Anyway, he started that chapter by saying something like... This is what happen in India, but I still believe India's democracy is in better position to deal with ethic strife than the authorization China. LOL, he sees things as they are, and are openly biased towards it. There is really nothing else to say.

Actually there is one thing that is very important to say - call out the double standards and outright lies.

 

[sanblvd]

Actually there is one thing that is very important to say - call out the double standards and outright lies.

Come on man, no need to be Captain Obvious, and yes water is wet, sky is blue, human breath oxygen, Western media are bunch of hypocrites etc....

 

[PanAsian]

Come on man, no need to be Captain Obvious, and yes water is wet, sky is blue, human breath oxygen, Western media are bunch of hypocrites etc....

It's not obvious to those who don't know the difference if no one points it out.