China's SCS Strategy Thread

[sanblvd]

Another similar article, same story, Vietnam is playing solo against China, while the rest of the country are either on China's side or kept their silence lol

 

[siegecrossbow]

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Manila (AFP) - China on Sunday scored a diplomatic coup in its campaign to weaken regional resistance against its sweeping claims to the South China Sea when Southeast Asian nations issued a diluted statement on the dispute and agreed to Beijing's terms on talks.

After two days of tense meetings on the dispute in the Philippine capital, foreign ministers from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) issued a joint communique that diplomats involved said was carefully worded to avoid angering China.

The release of the statement came shortly after the ministers met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and agreed on a framework for conducting negotiations on the decades-long row that included key clauses advocated by China.

"This is an important outcome of our joint effort," Wang told reporters as he celebrated the agreement.

China claims nearly all of the strategically vital sea, through which $5 trillion in annual shipping trade passes and is believed to sit atop vast oil and gas deposits.

Its sweeping claims overlap with those of ASEAN members Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei, as well as Taiwan.

China has dramatically expanded its presence in the contested areas in recent years by building giant artificial islands that could be used as military bases, raising concerns it will eventually establish de facto control over the waters.

In what two diplomats involved said was another victory for Beijing on Sunday, ASEAN members declined to say in their joint statement that the hoped-for code of conduct with China be "legally binding".

Vietnam, the most determined critic of China on the issue, had insisted during two days of negotiations that ASEAN insist the code be legally binding, arguing otherwise it would be meaningless.

The ASEAN ministers failed to release the joint statement as expected after meeting on Saturday because of their differences on the sea issue, with Vietnam pushing for tougher language and Cambodia lobbying hard for China.

"Vietnam is adamant, and China is effectively using Cambodia to champion its interests," one diplomat told AFP on Sunday as negotiations extended into overtime.

- Consensus struggle -

Tensions over the sea have long vexed ASEAN, which operates on a consensus basis but has had to balance the interests of rival claimants and those more aligned to China.

Critics of China have accused it of trying to divide ASEAN with strong-armed tactics and chequebook diplomacy, enticing smaller countries in the bloc such as Cambodia and Laos to support it.

The Philippines, under previous president Benigno Aquino, had been one of the most vocal critics of China and filed a case before a UN-backed tribunal.

The tribunal last year ruled China's sweeping claims to the sea had no legal basis.

But China, despite being a signatory to the UN's Convention on the Law of the Sea, ignored the ruling.

The Philippines, under new President Rodrigo Duterte, decided to play down the verdict in favour of pursuing warmer ties with Beijing. This in turn led to offers of billions of dollars in investments or aid from China.

"It's clear that China's pressure on individual ASEAN governments has paid off," Bill Hayton, a South China Sea expert and associate fellow with the Asia Programme at Chatham House in London, told AFP.

Hayton and other analysts said the agreement on a framework for talks on Sunday came 15 years after a similar document was signed committing the parties to begin negotiations.

The 2002 document was more strongly worded against China.

China used those 15 years to cement its claims, while continuing to get ASEAN to issue ever-weaker statements of opposition, according to the analysts.

"It would appear China has never lost in terms of seeing the language of ASEAN forum statements being toned down," Ei Sun Oh, adjunct senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, told AFP.

Philippine academic and security analyst Richard Heydarian expressed stronger sentiments as he summarised Sunday's developments: "Overall it's a slam dunk diplomatic victory for China".

 

[Equation]

Well Germany just kicked-out a Vietnamese diplomat because he was involved in a kidnapping of a wanted and corrupt Vietnamese official who fled to Germany. This is such a blow to the Vietnamese image that they're resorting to blaming Chinese teaching corruption to the Vietnamese as the excuse why the kidnapping happened. It's like when the three US soldiers who foiled the terrorist attack on a French train, the one that suffered the most serious injuries was also attacked in his home town of Sacramento, California afterwards by a gang of Vietnamese that people in the Vietnamese community then tried to charge they were Chinese not Vietnamese even after they were arrested and known to be Vietnamese.

I'm frankly sick of China's high road attitude because no one in the world recognizes it so what's the point? All of China's adversaries look to the US for protection. All of them also hypocritically want to make money from China while insulting China at the same time. Vietnam is and should be used as an example where their economy would collapse without China. I'm not talking about China buying Vietnamese products or is it relevant that Vietnamese think they can find prosperity by just selling to other countries other than China. Vietnam gets all its raw materials to make things for Western corporations from China. You know... all that heat China gets for scouring the world for raw materials? Do you see Vietnamese with the ships making the deals with poor third world countries for their resources? No, they depend on China for that. China should cut them off 100% as example to show to the world. Let the world see the Vietnamese exploiting poor countries for its resources if they ever get that far. The cheapest ships come from China. Once the world sees China cutting off Vietnam, countries like South Korea won't be thinking competitive prices for ships to sell to Vietnam when they'll exploit them jacking it up instead. Vietnam won't be cheaper than China when they have to factor in all the logistical costs that they're spoiled in not having to deal with.

China's high road attitude doesn't make countries appreciate anything. It just makes them spoiled and ignorant to the reality. There was an article recently regarding Trump's imminent trade action announcement against China for doing nothing on North Korea. It was postponed and word was the US agriculture sector was in panic because they know they'll get hit by China's retaliation first. China's neighbors don't want to deal with China so they get the US to do it for them. No one sees the connection with China's high road attitude. It should be an eye for an eye attitude... and immediately. Countries run to the US because all you have to do is suck up to the US and they'll side with you regardless of history or the rule of law.

China's high road attitude actually works for their own benefit in the long term. It allows the other countries having any issues with China to use up all of their diplomatic cards in the short term therefore are susceptible to China's retaliation with little or no effort at all. The so called "heat" that China's getting only comes from the Western bias media and naysayers. Plus the Western media can't use that too much otherwise their own local Chinese citizens will lose loyalty and stop working for them in all aspects of research, science and technology. Because nobody want's to work for ingrate boss who won't recognize them for their work all because they are "associated" with the "enemy".

There is only so much sucking up to the US before those countries has to listen to the US "human rights activist" self righteous enforcement on them. They soon realize that the US just wants to use them against China for which they depended on for economic growth.

 

[Equation]

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Philippine academic and security analyst Richard Heydarian expressed stronger sentiments as he summarised Sunday's developments: "Overall it's a slam dunk diplomatic victory for China".

Damn this guy (Yang Jeichi, China's current foreign minister and former ambassador to the United States) and his diplomatic team are GOOD!

 

[PanAsian]

Well Germany just kicked-out a Vietnamese diplomat because he was involved in a kidnapping of a wanted and corrupt Vietnamese official who fled to Germany. This is such a blow to the Vietnamese image that they're resorting to blaming Chinese teaching corruption to the Vietnamese as the excuse why the kidnapping happened. It's like when the three US soldiers who foiled the terrorist attack on a French train, the one that suffered the most serious injuries was also attacked in his home town of Sacramento, California afterwards by a gang of Vietnamese that people in the Vietnamese community then tried to charge they were Chinese not Vietnamese even after they were arrested and known to be Vietnamese.

I'm frankly sick of China's high road attitude because no one in the world recognizes it so what's the point? All of China's adversaries look to the US for protection. All of them also hypocritically want to make money from China while insulting China at the same time. Vietnam is and should be used as an example where their economy would collapse without China. I'm not talking about China buying Vietnamese products or is it relevant that Vietnamese think they can find prosperity by just selling to other countries other than China. Vietnam gets all its raw materials to make things for Western corporations from China. You know... all that heat China gets for scouring the world for raw materials? Do you see Vietnamese with the ships making the deals with poor third world countries for their resources? No, they depend on China for that. China should cut them off 100% as example to show to the world. Let the world see the Vietnamese exploiting poor countries for its resources if they ever get that far. The cheapest ships come from China. Once the world sees China cutting off Vietnam, countries like South Korea won't be thinking competitive prices for ships to sell to Vietnam when they'll exploit them jacking it up instead. Vietnam won't be cheaper than China when they have to factor in all the logistical costs that they're spoiled in not having to deal with.

China's high road attitude doesn't make countries appreciate anything. It just makes them spoiled and ignorant to the reality. There was an article recently regarding Trump's imminent trade action announcement against China for doing nothing on North Korea. It was postponed and word was the US agriculture sector was in panic because they know they'll get hit by China's retaliation first. China's neighbors don't want to deal with China so they get the US to do it for them. No one sees the connection with China's high road attitude. It should be an eye for an eye attitude... and immediately. Countries run to the US because all you have to do is suck up to the US and they'll side with you regardless of history or the rule of law.

This is a direct result of China's and Chinese people's poor PR on behalf of themselves, that's what needs to be worked on. Taking the high road does pay off and there is gratitude from others while some are ingrates. China and Chinese people historically taking the high road, and others' gratitude for it, have and continue to immensely help them in tough situations such as those on the Korean peninsula, in the SCS, and in Africa.

 

[FactsPlease]

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Anyone bother to read the book "Asia's Cauldron" of Robert Kaplan?

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It did say in this SCS dispute, Vietnam will be the key player against China, though all it can count on is US Navy (or US strength, as long as it won't decline soon enough). All other ASEAN countries are either too small or too distracted. (What I get is not an English version. Pardon me not to quote exact statement)

Highlight: I didn't say I agree or support the perspective in the book. Simply to stress on above statement.

 

[AndrewS]

Anyone bother to read the book "Asia's Cauldron" of Robert Kaplan?

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It did say in this SCS dispute, Vietnam will be the key player against China, though all it can count on is US Navy (or US strength, as long as it won't decline soon enough). All other ASEAN countries are either too small or too distracted. (What I get is not an English version. Pardon me not to quote exact statement)

Highlight: I didn't say I agree or support the perspective in the book. Simply to stress on above statement.

The original English version is as follows

“If China can break off Vietnam they’ve won the South China Sea,” a top U.S. official told me.

“Malaysia is lying low, Brunei has solved its problem with China, Indonesia has no well-defined foreign policy on the subject, the Philippines has few cards to play despite that country’s ingenious boisterousness and incendiary statements, Singapore is capable but lacks size.”

It’s all up to Vietnam, in other words

We can already see that everyone else in the SCS is acquiescing to China.

 

[advill]

It is good that the Code of Conduct (COC) is presently being discussed seriously by ASEAN and China. Hopefully, it would be implemented without delay. Also with fairness, mutual understanding, and advantage for all to ensure Peace & Prosperity in the region. We await the final outcome of the COC resolution.

 

[plawolf]

This is a direct result of China's and Chinese people's poor PR on behalf of themselves, that's what needs to be worked on. Taking the high road does pay off and there is gratitude from others while some are ingrates. China and Chinese people historically taking the high road, and others' gratitude for it, have and continue to immensely help them in tough situations such as those on the Korean peninsula, in the SCS, and in Africa.

PR is part of the problem, but it's not really China's problem in that the key reason China gets such bad press is because the western mainstream press are fundamentally biased against China.

All they have to do is add 'state mouthpiece' to describe any news outlets remotely sympathetic to China and their brainwashed audience will automatically discount anything and everything said by those sources as they have been trained to do.

What China really is lacking in its diplomacy that is the chief cause of others taking liberty is a lack of use of its stick to punish those that cross it.

Sadly, China is behaving too civilised in the power based world we currently live in.

The so-called rules based world order simply does not exist so long as the US and its allies treat international laws as only something that happen to countries they don't like.

The likes of Vietnam, the Phillipines and India think they can push China around because China doesn't want to hit them.

No amount of PR or talking will get them to change that view. The only way to get them to change their behaviour is if China makes it clear that there will be real and immediate costs to crossing China, as the US demonstrates at every opportunity.

But then, China will end up being no better than the US if it behaves that way.

 

[sanblvd]

Anyone bother to read the book "Asia's Cauldron" of Robert Kaplan?

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It did say in this SCS dispute, Vietnam will be the key player against China, though all it can count on is US Navy (or US strength, as long as it won't decline soon enough). All other ASEAN countries are either too small or too distracted. (What I get is not an English version. Pardon me not to quote exact statement)

Highlight: I didn't say I agree or support the perspective in the book. Simply to stress on above statement.

I have read over 5 of his book include this one. He is a very good author, one of the most non biased geopolitics writer, he don't see China as this evil empire, he says it himself that China is a legitimate power trying to gain influence just as US has also gain influence its own backyard, however its very clear that he tries to be non biased but nonetheless he is very biased. He wrote that book during the most difficult time in SCS. But his assessment overall is correct, Vietnam has the most potential in ASEAN to be use to offset against China because Vietnam has Confucius work ethics just like China, Korea and Japan do, and Vietnam teach their children to hate China growing up, their ancient history textbook in school has all the Chinese emperor etc... but as the bad guys lol. Its like reading bad fan fiction.

The whole book is pretty much counter balancing against China, use Vietnam, Philippine with US backing etc... but I wish he would go further, because China too can play that game, China can also use Cambodia and Laos to counter balance Vietnam. Because if you look at the map, for almost 2000 years the entire south east Asia was dominated by Khmer empire (Cambodia) and Siamese empire (Thailand) also for almost 1500 years Vietnam as you know it only occupy the very north part of it around Hanoi, but after the last Ming occupation and withdraw from Vietnam, Vietnam started a vast invasion southward Khmer and that's how Vietnam got its long shape that it has today. It was only stopped when France invaded Indo Asia and conquered both Vietnam and Cambodia, so that's how the border stabilized, if its was not for France, Vietnam would have conquer entire Cambodia, Laos then Thailand. Vietnam's ultimate goal is to have its own mini-China in the South, so one day it can stand up to the real China in the north to claim who really have the mandate of heaven.

And its no accident that Cambodia, Laos and Thailand are very good friends of China, they fear Vietnam as much as Vietnam fear China. But Robert didn't even once mention this dynamic, which is very interesting read.

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This article, good read.