China's SCS Strategy Thread

[joshuatree]

Instead of taking a hard line, can China make lemonade out of the PCA lemon? What if it set aside the PCA's legitimacy question, and deals only with the four main points in the Tribunal's rendering? They are:

1. China's 9-dash line is invalid
2. All of the land features in the SCS are "rocks" and none are entitled to 200 mi EEZ; 500m/3mi/12mi are all the water they're entitled
   
3. China infringed on Filipino fishing and other resource rights in contested area
4. China didn't live up to environmental pledges while creating artificial islands

1. China never clarified what the 9-dash line meant. So it doesn't have to give it up in any sense. Claiming it as an identifier of the features along with accorded waters that China considers theirs is a valid line. No different that the many lines other claimants have drawn, albeit with much less visibility.

2. This one is completely worth fighting against, especially the ridiculous "let's create a quantifier as we go even though we are not experts" ruling the PCA used to "disqualify" Taiping from an EEZ.

3. The truth is, those waters have been used by fishermen from many states over the millennia. The Filipinos infringed on Chinese fishing as well and it was their decision to send in a naval flagship to ante up that initiated the chain of events leading to what it is today. Start mixing grey boats with white and things will escalate quickly. So both sides need to be able to acknowledge the other's right to fish there and perhaps come to an agreement on shared fishing resource harvesting and management.

4.Yes and this is where the same conviction, resource, and speed needs to be implemented now to fix as much as possible the damage done and to promote/foster environmentally good projects such as reef building, fishing stock cultivation, eco-awareness, etc etc. Instead of encouraging Tanmen fishermen to go harvest clams, maybe seeing an armada of their boats go out and getting paid to clean up the waters instead (drift nets, trash, etc etc).

I don't think China should touch the PCA at all. You can't cherry pick only the parts that you like and deny other parts and still justify it all.

You've answered this in your latter post but you can cherry pick parts of the PCA to blunt and mute it as tool for the opposition without having to acknowledge it.

 

[siegecrossbow]

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BEIJING (Reuters) - China's air force sent bombers and fighter jets on "combat patrols" near contested islands in the South China Sea, in a move a senior colonel said was part of an effort to normalize such drills and respond to security threats.

The exercises come at a time of heightened tension in the disputed waters after an arbitration court in The Hague ruled last month that China did not have historic rights to the South China Sea.

The air force sent several H-6 bombers and Su-30 fighter jets to inspect the airspace around the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal, Senior Colonel Shen Jinke of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force said, according to state news agency Xinhua.

The patrols included surveillance and refueling aircraft, Xinhua said, although it did not say when they occurred.

"The Air Force is organizing normalized South China Sea combat patrols, practising tactics ... increasing response capabilities to all kinds of security threats and safeguarding national sovereignty, security and maritime interests," Shen said.

China has refused to recognize the ruling by an arbitration court in The Hague that invalidated its vast territorial claims in the South China Sea and did not take part in the proceedings brought by the Philippines.

A dispute over the shoal, 124 nautical miles northwest of the Philippines mainland, was one of Manila's main reasons for bringing international legal action against China in 2013.

Beijing has reacted angrily to calls by Western countries and Japan for the decision to be adhered to and has released pictures of aircraft flying over the shoal since the ruling.

China has repeatedly blamed the United States for stoking tension through its military patrols in the South China Sea, a strategic waterway through which more than $5 trillion of trade moves annually.

China, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam all have rival claims in the South China Sea.

The United States has conducted freedom of navigation patrols close to Chinese-held islands, to Beijing's anger, while China has been bolstering its military presence there.

 

[PanAsian]

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Subtler than before and still highly biased and incomplete description of events typical of Western coverage of the SCS to make China look more aggressive than it is and single it out as if it is the only one causing conflict.

 

[Equation]

Subtler than before and still highly biased and incomplete description of events typical of Western coverage of the SCS to make China look more aggressive than it is and single it out as if it is the only one causing conflict.

Get used to it (but one doesn't have to approve) bro. These media mouth piece are promoting and working for their special interests group buddies.

 

[PanAsian]

Get used to it (but one doesn't have to approve) bro. These media mouth piece are promoting and working for their special interests group buddies.

I'll get used to calling it out whenever I see it!

 

[advill]

It's done whether u support or wholeheartedly disagree with the IJC Hague's rulings. Now is the time to talk/negotiate - aggressive actions will get nowhere, & will be detrimental to the region as a whole.

 

[Blitzo]

It's done whether u support or wholeheartedly disagree with the IJC Hague's rulings. Now is the time to talk/negotiate - aggressive actions will get nowhere, & will be detrimental to the region as a whole.

The ICJ was never part of the issue -- it was the PCA that was involved.

The two are both in the Hague and occupy the same building, but they're definitely not the same body.

 

[duncanidaho]

It's done whether u support or wholeheartedly disagree with the IJC Hague's rulings. Now is the time to talk/negotiate - aggressive actions will get nowhere, & will be detrimental to the region as a whole.

Please don't give this Charade of Arbitration and Ruling more credit than it has.
The PCA (Permanent Court of Arbitration) is not the ICJ (International Court of Justice) and it doesn't has any affiliation to the UN.

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[tidalwave]

I read western articles and they have dragged paracel island chain into the dispute. Some of them have urged Vietnam to take the same route as Philippines to sue China for violating its EEZ and Paracel should be within Vietnam's EEZ. Well, they forgot that, Paracel is actually closer to Hainan's EEZ (Except Trinton) then Vietnam's EEZ. Therefore Vietnam cannot possibly taken into the court like Philippines.

NExt Phase, Paracel chain needs to reclaimate at large scale like Spratley. North Reef, Tree island Chain, Vuladore Reef ..if reclaimated, each one offers 10x bigger size than the current largest island Woody island. If they are all reclaimated then it will give China a very strong hold and together can sustain a total population of 50,000+ . That will cements China's hold at Paracel chain far into the future.

The total sea area enclosed by the Paracel island chain could be a very good haven to host submarines hiding there. The water is very deep. 1000 meter unlike Spratley.

 

[Shaolian]

I read western articles and they have dragged paracel island chain into the dispute. Some of them have urged Vietnam to take the same route as Philippines to sue China for violating its EEZ and Paracel should be within Vietnam's EEZ. Well, they forgot that, Paracel is actually closer to Hainan's EEZ (Except Trinton) then Vietnam's EEZ. Therefore Vietnam cannot possibly taken into the court like Philippines.

NExt Phase, Paracel chain needs to reclaimate at large scale like Spratley. North Reef, Tree island Chain, Vuladore Reef ..if reclaimated, each one offers 10x bigger size than the current largest island Woody island. If they are all reclaimated then it will give China a very strong hold and together can sustain a total population of 50,000+ . That will cements China's hold at Paracel chain far into the future.

The total sea area enclosed by the Paracel island chain could be a very good haven to host submarines hiding there. The water is very deep. 1000 meter unlike Spratley.

I don't think China should response based on what the western media is propagating, but rather to what Vietnam itself is doing. Paracels is between China and Vietnam.

If Vietnam starts to behave like what the Philipines did during the Aquino administration, then yes, China should response. But until then, there's no need for any further escallation.