China's SCS Strategy Thread

[tidalwave]

Just imagine what would happen if China openly supported Bin Laden during those "crucial 10 years". That would undoubtedly put China in the crosshair of the US. And it would be a China vs. US conflict, not a US vs. Bin Laden...

China benefited from bin Laden exactly because China stayed out of it. It stayed out of the entire conflict. That was why China could focus on economic development while the US focused squarely on Bin Laden. China succeeded because it stayed away from the fire, not jumping into it.

And Bin Laden didn't directly help China. He started a fire somewhere else, which drew attention of everyone and allowed China to develop in peace.

Similarly, aligning yourself with ISIS would be the opposite of what China did "during those crucial 10 years". Bad idea.

First of all, its not my idea. I am just a messenger.

OK, let me ask this, if conflict break out, Chinese warship has been sunk . Do you want to launch ASBM against carriers for retaliation or do you want to collaborate and work with ISIS and give whatever they needed?

Sa growing trend in China favors the second option. Because ASBM sinking carrier could invite nuke retaliation.

The less of two evils.

 

[solarz]

First of all, its not my idea. I am just a messenger.

OK, let me ask this, if conflict break out, Chinese warship has been sunk . Do you want to launch ASBM against carriers for retaliation or do you want to collaborate and work with ISIS and give whatever they needed?

Sa growing trend in China favors the second option. Because ASBM sinking carrier could invite nuke retaliation.

The less of two evils.

No, in your scenario, retaliating with ASBM would be the far better option.

Why? Because if you try to work with terrorists, you are signalling that you are not willing to defend yourself through conventional means. That means your enemy will continue to sink your warships. You will eventually lose all your standing army and be left with nothing but guerilla forces.

China has its own nuclear deterrence, so it would be foolish for any enemy to launch a nuclear attack against China, unless they are looking for mutual destruction.

Again, let me point to the Boxer's Rebellion. Cixi didn't want to pit her own troops against encroaching foreign colonial powers, so she covertly supported the Boxers. The result was the Eight Nations Alliance that essentially punched her in the face.

 

[tidalwave]

No, in your scenario, retaliating with ASBM would be the far better option.

Why? Because if you try to work with terrorists, you are signalling that you are not willing to defend yourself through conventional means. That means your enemy will continue to sink your warships. You will eventually lose all your standing army and be left with nothing but guerilla forces.

China has its own nuclear deterrence, so it would be foolish for any enemy to launch a nuclear attack against China, unless they are looking for mutual destruction.

Some people in China won't agree with you!

 

[SampanViking]

Ok Gents, its cool off time.
I really do not want to read about nuclear exchanges or joining with ISIS
I really am interested in the prospects of China introducing its SCS ADIZ and would be surprised if all other forum members were not interested as well

 

[tidalwave]

Ok Gents, its cool off time.
I really do not want to read about nuclear exchanges or joining with ISIS
I really am interested in the prospects of China introducing its SCS ADIZ and would be surprised if all other forum members were not interested as well

From what I read, they likely put military assets at man made island first than adiz. SAM, air fighters and ASBM like what they did at paracel

 

[solarz]

From what I read, they likely put military assets at man made island first than adiz. SAM, air fighters and ASBM like what they did at paracel

Xi made a public commitment not to militarize the Spratlys. Right now, I don't believe the situation warrants China to go against that commitment just yet. So far, it's just a lot of empty rhetoric. If any country decides to act on the PCA ruling, then it's a different matter.

I do expect the paracels to beef up their defenses, and likely more military patrols in the spratlys. We might also see some exploitation work begin in the area. Maybe an oil rig or two.

 

[AssassinsMace]

You know what's going to happen? Nothing. Surely nothing that hasn't been done already which has been superficial at most. The ruling is simply symbolic. For the last year especially because of the US Presidential election there has been a lot of talk about China's place in the world and not regarding this issue. Of course the rhetoric is around China does nothing for anyone else. But earlier in the year because of the state of China's economy the world stock market dropped because of what's happening in China. If China does nothing for anyone why would their markets take a hit? Even Trump was angry at China for affecting US markets. He's one of those that thinks the US economic relation with China is all one-sided. Japan at it's peak didn't have that kind of effect on world markets China does now. I thought China was the most evil country in the world. If they don't need China, why don't they end relations and go to war because everyone seems to think they can beat China? Those in power know it doesn't matter who is painted as the bad guy, they're going to get hurt if it gets worse. What they don't realize is the Pivot to Asia was Obama's first failed redline threat before Syria. Russia has actually killed people over Ukraine. If they think Russia is the bad guy that started it all and Europe is on the brink of invasion, why has the US chosen to lead from behind? Obama already miscalculated thinking pressure and isolation with the Pivot to Asia and TPP was going to make China surrender because he thought China didn't want to be singled or left out. Japan was upset that Obama did nothing when these tensions first started rising because isn't that what the Pivot to Asia was suppose to be all about? Not even economic or diplomatic sanctions like on Russia for bad behavior. And when trade dropped over tensions when Japan expected support from Western allies, they just took advantage and filled the gap Japan lost in China. It took over a year after China started building islands before the US said anything about it. Why did Duarte have to ask the US if they were behind the Philippines. I thought that was already established with Aquino. Unless that was just show for China and not any real commitment despite the situation. And remember the US didn't sign on to UNCLOS. It would hypocritical for them to enforce a ruling from a body where the US doesn't recognize their authority. That's why there were a lot of articles calling for the US to sign on to UNCLOS now. And there was an article about a month ago where the headline charged Australia was the China to East Timor. That's why they don't push it beyond symbolic because if they did, they'll have to follow the ruling too.

 

[solarz]

That's why they don't push it beyond symbolic because if they did, they'll have to follow the ruling too.

You give them too much credit. The US has always treated international organizations as nothing but a propaganda tool, to be used when convenient, ignored when inconvenient. Remember the US rhetoric prior to the invasion of Iraq? The media rarely mentions it these days, but back then it was all about how useless the UN was and the US had to invade for the good of the world.

Now, all of a sudden, they're talking about how China should comply with a ruling in a treaty that the US isn't even a part of? Nevermind that the ruling is illegitimate to begin with!

This whole thing is an exercise in propaganda, because propaganda is the only leverage the US have in the SCS.

 

[lucretius]

Regardless of the nature of the tribunal, enforceable or not, the worlds press is now focused on China and it's reaction.

Will this accelerate or postpone any sort of reclamation/development at the Scarborough shoal I wonder?

History would dictate the the CCP "do", to some degree care about their outward appearance to the world, although there are red lines they won't tolerate being crossed, whatever the fallout i.e Tiananmen.

 

[solarz]

Regardless of the nature of the tribunal, enforceable or not, the worlds press is now focused on China and it's reaction.

Will this accelerate or postpone any sort of reclamation/development at the Scarborough shoal I wonder?

History would dictate the the CCP "do", to some degree care about their outward appearance to the world, although there are red lines they won't tolerate being crossed, whatever the fallout i.e Tiananmen.

There has never been any confirmation of reclamation at the Scarborough shoal/Huangyan island. Given the state of detente between China and the Duterte administration, I seriously doubt we will see any work on that front. In fact, we might see China offer some concessions if Duterte is willing to publicly distance himself from the PCA ruling.