China's SCS Strategy Thread

[vesicles]

Well, China doesn't need to do anything now. Taiwan has done it for them. Tsai has sent Navy ships to Taiping island. China only needs to sit back and let Taiwan take care of everything.

Soon it will be Taiwan vs. Philipines instead of China vs. the world. That's because both Taiwan and the Philipines are allies of the west. They can't afford to alienate any of them. So they would most likely stay out of the fight and let Taiwan and the Philipines fight it out on their own.

China will just quietly keep doing whatever they have been doing all along. If anyone challenge them, they will simply say "watch over there! see what Taiwan is doing?"

What is currently happening is the best case scenario for China. So China should just sit back and let it play out.

 

[tidalwave]

I heard one solution is China would split up Scarbourough Shoal into North And South sides. China would get half and Philippines would get the other half. After that, China can build and reclaim whatever on their half portion.

Also Philippines would get Half-moon shoal and in return it give up Pegasus island and hand to China.

 

[AndrewS]

I think it's difficult to predict what China will do now, as China doesn't really know either.

Eg. Do nothing or declare an ADIZ or build on Scarborough Shoal etc

It depends on the interactions that will happen.

But I do predict that if anyone tries to push China around too much, China will likely escalate.

And that China has decided that a much larger nuclear deterrent that can reach the continental USA is now required.

 

[longmarch]

Hello Meiji island

 

[joshuatree]

I think it's difficult to predict what China will do now, as China doesn't really know either.

Eg. Do nothing or declare an ADIZ or build on Scarborough Shoal etc

It depends on the interactions that will happen.

But I do predict that if anyone tries to push China around too much, China will likely escalate.

And that China has decided that a much larger nuclear deterrent that can reach the continental USA is now required.

The easiest thing to do is to prepare for the worst which would be to increase the military budget, crank up production, and train respective crews.

Out there, doing nothing but the usual. Steady as she goes.

Diplomats in back door talks would be the other component.

 

[longmarch]

Hello Zhubi island:

 

[SteelBird]

Well, China doesn't need to do anything now. Taiwan has done it for them. Tsai has sent Navy ships to Taiping island. China only needs to sit back and let Taiwan take care of everything.

Soon it will be Taiwan vs. Philipines instead of China vs. the world. That's because both Taiwan and the Philipines are allies of the west. They can't afford to alienate any of them. So they would most likely stay out of the fight and let Taiwan and the Philipines fight it out on their own.

China will just quietly keep doing whatever they have been doing all along. If anyone challenge them, they will simply say "watch over there! see what Taiwan is doing?"

What is currently happening is the best case scenario for China. So China should just sit back and let it play out.

To back up your claim, here's a report about it. There's also a video of the report.

Strange, a day before the tribunal, Tsai call back two patrol boats; of course the excuses were due typhoon. the call back caused chaos between the strait calling Tsai as traitor. Maybe the reaction was not good that Tsai decide to send the navy back?

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TAIPEI - Taiwan said on Tuesday (July 12) that it will never accept a ruling by a UN-backed arbitral tribunal that Taiping island and other features in the Spratly archipelago are "rocks" that are not entitled to a 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone.

Its navy also said it will deploy another coast guard vessel on Wednesday to Taiwan-controlled Taiping - also known as Itu Aba - to patrol its surrounding waters. The navy had deployed a 2,000-tonne coast guard vessel on Sunday to the island.

The Philippines had brought the case to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague against China's claims in the South China Sea. Although Taiwan is not a party to the case, its claims in the disputed waters are similar to those of China, and Taiping island was brought up in testimony during the court hearings.

 

[Blackstone]

I heard one solution is China would split up Scarbourough Shoal into North And South sides. China would get half and Philippines would get the other half. After that, China can build and reclaim whatever on their half portion.

Also Philippines would get Half-moon shoal and in return it give up Pegasus island and hand to China.

Why should China give up anything, other than the 9DL which didn't make any sense anyway? It could quietly go about its business and continue to consolidate its holdings. Those artificial islands changed facts on the water and gave Beijing de facto control of the SCS. Also, it could build up Scarborough or other land features as needed.

 

[Brumby]

Why should China give up anything, other than the 9DL which didn't make any sense anyway?

Why would China give up 9DL? China pursued the 9DL not because it was founded on some reasoning, it was simply by fiat.

it could build up Scarborough or other land features as needed.

It isn't a matter of need but what China thinks it can get away with. If I was China, I would get on with it immediately. Based on Obama's track record, nothing will happen from the US side other than his usual teleprompter speech.
Common Stoney you are the big power take no prisoner believer. Big power just do what they like - damn the rest of the world. If they protest give them some nukes for breakfast - that seems to be the story line in the past 24 hours.

 

[Blackstone]

I think it's difficult to predict what China will do now, as China doesn't really know either.

Eg. Do nothing or declare an ADIZ or build on Scarborough Shoal etc

It depends on the interactions that will happen.

But I do predict that if anyone tries to push China around too much, China will likely escalate.

And that China has decided that a much larger nuclear deterrent that can reach the continental USA is now required.

China is in the catbird seat and doesn't need to initiate provocative actions to consolidate its position in the SCS.