China's SCS Strategy Thread

delft

Brigadier
taking liberties that the rest of the world would suggest that she should not?
Not the rest of the World. Just US and very few of their friends. Besides why should US pay for the protection of $5t of trade when nearly all that trade is to or from China. Let China pay for that protection as it is clearly willing to do.
 

delft

Brigadier
Anyway, back on topic now.

Peter Layton has one of the best analyses of the SCS I've seen yet from the Lowy Institute in Australia. Full article below.

South China Sea: Beijing is winning, but here's how to retake the initiative
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My thoughts are:

1. that it's good that someone in the think tank community can cogently recognise that China's interests and its strength/options in the area, although it is still understates China to a degree.

2. It may or may not end up as a zero-sum outcome in terms of territory, as it's too early to say at this time what China will ultimately do. But in economic terms, there is a good case that Chinese security control of the shipping lanes will result in a positive economic outcome even for Vietnam/Philippines - due to the spillover from increased trade/investment/resource extraction that will occur as China feels more secure that its investments in Asia can be protected.

3. The author suggests one strategy which is to target the CCP to obtain leverage, but I think that this would have to be handled very carefully, because it could so easily become counter-productive when the CCP pushes back even harder and escalates.

4. The 2nd strategy the author suggests is to demilitarise the SCS islands under UN or ASEAN control. However, permanent UN or ASEAN only facilities in the SCS islands are just not in China's interest, as China gets nothing from this.

But a joint civilian facility with ASEAN or selected ASEAN members is something that I think China would seriously consider, because it would comprise a multi-lateral effort that would inevitably be led and dominated by China. However, note that this would likely only be stationed on 1 island, which means the other 2 big SCS islands would remain under exclusive Chinese control.

I would expect that this joint facility would share the same island with a separate China-only facility under coast guard or military jurisdiction. This means that the joint China-ASEAN assets and presumably Chinese military and coast guard assets become mixed together on the same island. It means that the interests of China-ASEAN become more comingled, and any potential attack on the islands also becomes an attack on ASEAN in addition to China.

The benefits of this joint China-ASEAN force are that the day-today interactions take the heat off the SCS and invite a compromise between China-ASEAN. But from the US perspective, it means they lose influence to a China-led grouping.

The author suggest a civilian disaster relief command, which sounds reasonable to me as it benefits everyone in the region and indeed the world. But aren't most of these sorts of assets in ASEAN and China actually paramilitary or military in nature? Think a Tsunami or Hurricane.

And if the remit of this joint force expands to anti-piracy etc, then it definitely becomes a paramilitary or military force.

Then we see China leading a China-ASEAN security grouping, which should lead to much more stability in the SCS and which would be in the interests of China and ASEAN. But again, it means a loss in influence for the US.

Comments anyone?
I like your remarks. Layton mentions receiving the Dalai Lama. I remember Martin Jacques mentioning, IIRC at a recent meeting in California, that after Cameron met the DL in 2012 the Chinese push back was so effective that UK changed its policy towards China resulting in UK leading the flood of applicants for AIIB membership in March 2015.
 

ahojunk

Senior Member
Yes, I agree that Hugh White is one of the better defense analyst.

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CCTV.com

02-26-2016 06:10 BJT

The Chinese military is calling on the US to stop sensationalizing China’s military moves in the South China Sea. Spokesman Wu Qian has told the media that China has the legitimate right to deploy military facilities on its own islands in the South China Sea. US officials have criticized China’s building of of facilities and deployment of missiles and fighters.

Yongxing Island is increasingly under the spotlight of western media, as China exercises its sovereignty in the South China Sea.

"There’s no difference between China’s deployment of defense facilities on its own territory and the defense installation by the US in Hawaii," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said.

The US is accusing China of militarizing the region by deploying missile systems and fighter jets on Yongxing.

The combative tone in the debate between the two sides is itself making waves in the South China Sea.

"We want to halt the expansion and militarization of artifact features, we think everybody benefits by true de-militarization," US Secretary of State John Kerry said.

"We don’t hope to see militarized close-in reconnaissance by the US military. Nor do we want to see more missile destroyers or strategic fighters coming to this region. This is what all sides need to take for a responsible behavior on demilitarization," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said.

China regards itself as the victim of the disputes. It believes the US call for freedom of navigation is in fact a ploy for dominance in the region.

"The US has increasingly dispatched military vessels and aircraft to the adjacent waters and airspace of China’s islands in the South China Sea. It has engaged in highly targeted military exercises and joint patrols. The US is turning a blind eye to its own militarization and has made irresponsible accusations about China. This is a typical double standard," Chinese Ministry of Naional Defense spokesman Wu Qian said.

Beijing has been angered by US air and sea patrols near islands China claims. It's calling on the US to respect both their military and wider bilateral relations.

"Recent actions by the US have severely damaged mutual trust between the two sides, and violates the consensus reached by two sides. We urge the US to take concrete measures to remove obstacles for healthy development," Wu said.

The open debates by China and the United States on the South China Sea issue have a global audience. Both sides have acknowledged that it's unlikely that their differences will be resolved in the foreseeable future. The biggest question is how to avoid real confrontations that are in the interest of neither.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Looking at this map China basically establish AD/Anti access over SCS impressive Add to that fighter plane, AWAC and submarine It will make any foe think twice
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ngncii8nkrh9uebpcfbi.jpg


This awesome interactive map shows China’s emerging area denial and anti-access military capabilities in the South China Sea. It is useful in visually tracking China’s progress towards creating an overlapping field of control over a vast majority of the area.

The map,
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, is built by the
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One of China’s highly developed islands in the northern part of the South China Sea, Woody Island, has been equipped
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and
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These moves have come just as many defense analysts have predicted for years and are likely an indication of things to come for China’s other island outposts throughout the South China Sea.

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The first steps to fortify China’s growing island empire in the South China Sea are underway as a…
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There is also evidence that China is installing a high-frequency long-range radar array on Cuarteron Reef, one of their handful of man made islands in the south-central part of the South China Sea. This radar type is known to be used for detecting aircraft and ships at extreme ranges far over-the-horizon and can theoretically detect some stealthy aircraft under certain circumstances. It is just one of many other sensors popping up on this island and others, although the existence of such a capability provides even more evidence that China is actively seeking an aggressive anti-access, area denial strategy over the South China Sea.
This all comes as China’s largest island building project out of their manmade island initiative, Fiery Cross Reef, officially
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early last month. The runway is capable of supporting even China’s heaviest bomber and transport aircraft.

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China’s state backed Xinhua News has posted pictures of aircraft operating from the country’s…
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With any luck CSIS will keep updating this fabulous visual resource as China expands its military capabilities to its other islands that remain under construction in the South China Sea. Undoubtedly, the threat rings you see today will blossom and multiply, creating a massive overlapping area of control backed up by anti-ship and anti-air missiles, as well as fighter and maritime surveillance and attack aircraft.
 
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ahojunk

Senior Member
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Source: Xinhua | 2016-02-24 08:16:10 | Editor: huaxia

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WASHINGTON D.C., Feb. 23, 2016 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Secretary of States John Kerry (R) meets with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Washington D.C., the United States, Feb. 23, 2016.

WASHINGTON, Feb. 23 (Xinhua) -- Freedom of navigation in the South China Sea has not been a problem and demilitarization in the region needs efforts of all parties related, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said here on Tuesday.

"The islands in the South China Sea have been China's territory since ancient times, and China has the right to safeguard its territorial sovereignty," Wang said at a joint press conference with his U.S. counterpart John Kerry after a hours-long bilateral talk.

"At the same time, we insist that the issue should be solved peacefully through dialogue and consultations," Wang said.

Turning a deaf ear to China's calls for honoring its promise not to take sides on the maritime disputes, the U.S. has since last October sent warships and military jets to deliberately violate China's territorial waters in the South China Sea.

At the press conference, Kerry said that the United States has the so-called "freedom-of-navigation" right in the South China Sea.

"In fact, there has never been such a problem with freedom of navigation in the South China Sea," Wang stressed. "The situation in the South China Sea is overall stable."

As for militarization in the South China Sea, Wang said that people always focused on China's moves, but turned a blind eye to the advanced military equipments deployed by some other country in the South China Sea, including missel destroyers and strategic bombers.

During the past decades, some countries illegally occupied China's islands and militarized them heavily, not only with radars, but also with all kinds of artillery, he said.

"The demilitarization needs efforts of all parties, not only China, but also the United States and ASEAN countries," Wang said.

China would like to have dialogue with the United States on the South China Sea to avoid mis-judgement, he said.

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Chinese FM: freedom of navigation in South China Sea not a problem
 

flyzies

Junior Member
Anyway, back on topic now.

Peter Layton has one of the best analyses of the SCS I've seen yet from the Lowy Institute in Australia. Full article below.

South China Sea: Beijing is winning, but here's how to retake the initiative

This is a fantastic article, thanks for posting.

IMO the key sections are as follows, and it is something that a particular member of ours doesn't seem to be able to grasp (hence why that person keeps on repeating on this point like a broken record):

"China counters by arguing that it abides by the rules, but that only some rules are pertinent. In China’s view, the disputed islands were lawfully returned after World War II under the 1943 Cairo Declaration and 1945 Potsdam Proclamation. Others insist the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty with Japan and the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea should hold sway. China counters that it is not a party to the San Francisco Treaty and signed UNCLOS with specified reservations applying to the South China Sea issue. China is therefore '
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'.

China's stance has regional resonance. For instance, China avoids arbitration at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over seabed boundaries, just as Australia has done with its smaller neighbour Timor Leste. The Philippines has sought an ICJ ruling against China’s island grabs, with China responding by declaring it will ignore the result. Again, such a stance is not unusual: Japan is ignoring an ICJ ruling on whaling in the Southern Ocean."
 

ahojunk

Senior Member
Another piece from the Xinhua.

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Source: Xinhua | 2016-02-19 18:22:32 | Editor: huaxia

WASHINGTON, Feb. 18 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. government is recently struggling hard to justify its criticism of China's defensive moves in the South China Sea, because it is clear that it is the United States, not China, that is the real source of militarization of the region.

China's deployment of a surface-to-air missile system on the Xisha Islands, an inherent part of China's territory, is defensive in nature and falls within its sovereign rights and international law.

In an attempt to increase pressure on China, the U.S. government keeps slinging mud at China, calling the deployment a move to "militarize" the region.

Over the past few days, U.S. State Department spokesmen have been hyping up accusations against China over the missile system deployment, alleging that China's move of "militarization" will lead to further tensions in the region and is "counterproductive" to the peaceful resolution of the maritime disputes there.

Asked to clarify if the recent U.S. action of sending warships and fighter jets into territorial waters of Chinese islands in the South China Sea constituted "militarization" of the region, the spokesmen insisted that the U.S. was doing that to exert the so-called "freedom of navigation" rights.

Obviously, their defenses of the provocative U.S. actions against China are pale and invalid. It is a pure fallacy that Washington thinks one country, which is repeatedly threatened by the U.S. military provocations, should not take any defensive measures to protect its own rights.

Turning a deaf ear to China's calls for honoring its promise not to take sides on the maritime disputes, the U.S. has since last October sent warships and military jets to deliberately violate China's territorial waters in the South China Sea.

Apparently, Washington is once again adopting double standards over the issue.

China is not the first or only party in the disputes which has taken steps to build infrastructure and defense facilities on the islands.

However, while justifying any provocative acts by its ally such as the Philippines, or partner countries, the U.S. always points a finger at China for being the bully or villain.

The deployment of defense facilities on Yongxing Island is China's exercise of sovereignty as granted by international law to sovereign states and has been going on for decades. It is not whatsoever related to "militarization."

Fearing that China's rising power and influence will threaten its hegemony in the Asian-Pacific region, Washington in the past seven years has been pushing forward its "Asian Rebalance" strategy, aiming to contain China economically, diplomatically and militarily.

Most notably, the U.S. prioritizes the military perspective of this strategy by shifting most of its naval power and most advanced equipment to the region, deploying more troops and providing military aid to some claimants to bolster their capabilities to confront China.

Resorting to fear-mongering by preaching the so-called China Threat over the maritime disputes, Washington plots to forge a coalition to encircle China and force the Asian country to dance to its tune. But this is doomed to failure, as China has proven to be a peacemaker instead of a troublemaker in its long history.

China, though, has agreed on the U.S. stance that the maritime disputes in the South China Sea should be resolved peacefully through diplomacy in accordance with international laws.

But Washington needs to be truly impartial on the disputes, and needs to stop defaming China or escalating tensions in the region to fish benefits from the troubled waters.
 
Another piece from the Xinhua.

thanks for posting :) kinda reminds me of 1980s in here:

... the U.S. government keeps slinging mud at ...

... the so-called "freedom of navigation" rights.

Obviously, their defenses of the provocative U.S. actions against ... are pale and invalid. ...

... Washington plots to forge a coalition to encircle ... and force the ... country to dance to its tune.

... Washington ... to fish benefits from the troubled waters.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
From RT(Russian Today) an article by US congresswoman Cynthia McKinney title.

"What is America doing in SCS"
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The much quoted 5 billion dollar SLOC is nothing but a myth Here is Peter Lee article
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Washington is playing a dangerous game of 'chicken' with the Chinese and Russians, who are attempting to defend themselves from the Washington Consensus, which reduces subject populations to that of serfs.
While the Russians, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, seemed willing to accept a sort of vassal statehood, it is increasingly today clear that such an assignation is
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. Thus, Vladimir Putin enjoys immense
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as he stands up to the pro-Washington forces inside and outside of the US.

Meanwhile, the Chinese remember all too well the sting of British
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: opium addiction and the lasting effects of British presumptions of superiority. The Chinese place in the
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has been staked out as, in the case of Russia, supplier of inputs to feed the hungry capitalism of the US and the Western European former colonial masters.

Directed by the United States, and backed up by its military, the real beneficiaries of the Washington Consensus were never intended to be the people of China, who were just viewed as a one billion plus, voracious, consumption-hungry machine for Western goods.

Read more
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But the Chinese had another idea, and instead of becoming an engine of growth for Western economies, international political economists are now discussing the
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or the “Beijing Consensus.” Chinese Communist Party
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now tout China as an alternative development model for the former colonized world. This is not what Washington had in mind with its so-called “China Opening” in 1972.


Thus, the US has embarked upon a strategy of containing the rise of Russia and China, rolling back any gains made by states friendly with them and willing to go against the neoliberal grain, and doing this by alternative means without overt or “hot” war. The US military establishment calls this
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.

The Obama Administration, while pronouncing nostrums of civility and democracy, terms this multi-pronged attack on the right of self-determination of other countries, “Leading From Behind,” a term borrowed from Nelson Mandela. This is a strategy akin to having a war in which the leading belligerent is “in the closet,” out of view. Both the Russians and the Chinese know that Washington has declared war on them. So now, what does this mean for Asians’ engagement with each other and Washington’s engagement in Asia?

The particular line of contention now revolves around the geostrategically important sea lanes along which move oil from West Asia and North Africa to Japan and goods mostly produced in China yet consumed in every corner of the world. Because the Western media have touted the endangerment of global commerce caused by Chinese interference with these sea lanes, blogger Peter Lee decided to take a closer look. What he found is that even Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reportedly told the Diet (the Japanese Parliament) that “there are alternative routes” for the Strait of Malacca, “unlike Hormuz.”

He concluded that we who are forced to rely on Western media have been fed a bunch of propaganda and, in reality, the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca are not a critical sea lane for US allies Japan and South Korea and offers the
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of maritime activity to prove it. So, with the veneer of legitimacy completely torn away from US justifications for its actions in the region, what exactly are China and the US doing in the South China Sea?


Read more
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Sea Power and The New Silk Road
China has proposed reviving The Silk Road that once connected Asians and Europeans. It calls this effort the New Silk Road and has the financial power to encourage countries along the route to participate in the regional opportunities brought about by extensive land and sea linkages.

The New Silk Road envisions a peaceful integration of the region fostering development of the Continent as a whole. A development that could be explained 'of Asia by Asians for Asians.' Yet because of its military presence in the form of bases from West Asia to the archipelago countries in the East, the US military is present, blocking any Asian-led effort at integration and already enforcing US policies of
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,
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, and
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This US military presence can be found in Syria and Turkey in the West, the Philippines in the East, and Afghanistan and Pakistan in between. And one by one, the US is employing a direct military conquest strategy, as well as the old tried and true divide-and-rule strategy. Resistance to US hegemony in the Philippines had resulted in the US military being
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of the country, but now it is set to
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. The US scored a “two-fer” when it was able to secure its return to the Philippines while hawking the dangers of Chinese Imperialism.

The Japanese people have consistently voted in favor of local candidates who
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to stand up to the US and demand removal of American bases there, only to be betrayed by the central government in Tokyo. At least fifteen US bases in South Korea allow the imperial intruder to keep an eye on China and China-friendly North Korea from a close distance. It appears that Malaysia may be a target of Washington’s asymmetric warfare: one of its commercial airliners was shot down over Ukraine; another just disappeared without a trace—to this day. Now, Malaysia is in the midst of extreme political turmoil after $671 million
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appeared in Prime Minister Razak’s personal bank account and he was unable to convincingly explain to the public how it got there.

But Malaysia shares with Indonesia (site of the historic Bandung Conference) the Strait of Malacca which is the gateway to the Bay of Bengal (Myanmar, Bangladesh, and India) from the South China Sea. Curiously, Vietnam, still feeling the effects of the Vietnam War, just
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Washington for a greater role in countering China’s actions in the South China Sea. Of China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, that all have claims on some of the Spratley Islands, China is the only country that had
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an airfield or done reclamation work on its claimed islands, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Once China began its reclamation and construction work is when the “problems” in the South China Sea began.

US Provocations
The United States has sent a steady stream of warships into the area claiming its right to navigate on the high seas. In December 2015, the US
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that China’s militarism in the area had eroded navigational safety in the South China Sea. In its rejoinder, China warned the US not to be
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Last month, the US began air and sea“patrols” in the South China Sea sending one of its warships within twelve nautical miles of one of China’s reclaimed islands. This month, the war of words escalated to limited kinetic action as
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were fired by a refueling US KC-130 Hercules while on air patrol. The US insists that it will continue its military patrols over the South China Sea as is consistent with international law.
 
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