China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Jono]

NO strategic value my friend, maybe the one on Sabina Shoal BUT in Scarborough Shoal DEFINITELY NOT.

If indeed China goes for reclamation of the Scarborough Shoal, it would be a fencing tit-for-tat counter-move by China in response to PH/American provocations.
1, a political signal of displeasure somewhat akin to the Cuban crisis. The injury to China of PH/American stationing of Typhoon and Brahmos missile is minor but the insult is too great to be tolerated in silence.
2, there is still a significant military strategic value to China, an armed Scarborough Island is like a "sword" placed at the throat of the PH.

 

[ansy1968]

If indeed China goes for reclamation of the Scarborough Shoal, it would be a fencing tit-for-tat counter-move by China in response to PH/American provocations.
1, a political signal of displeasure somewhat akin to the Cuban crisis. The injury to China of PH/American stationing of Typhoon and Brahmos missile is minor but the insult is too great to be tolerated in silence.
2, there is still a significant military strategic value to China, an armed Scarborough Island is like a "sword" placed at the throat of the PH.

Bro this will be China Strategy against the Philippines, like Taiwan a naval blockade of Luzon will suffice. there are only 3 major ports critical for the economy to function. Batangas port, Manila and Subic, all on the Western area or the SCS. Traversing that commercial route can be easily be block by the Chinese Coast Guard alone. What about the American and what will they contribute? nothing cause the Chinese had escalatory dominance, building an artifical Island is simple a waste of money and resources, plus at the end of the day you need to peaceful reconciled the dispute, we're neighbors afterall.

And having a carrot is better than using a big stick. Plus if Luzon fall the whole Philippines will go down with them.

 

[00CuriousObserver]

Why is the SCS issue activated again in the PH?

It's always been ongoing, even though it's been much quieter since the thumb incident.

 

[PhSt]

Plus if Luzon fall the whole Philippines will go down with them.

Since you mentioned it, in this scenario there is a big possibility that the Visayas and Mindanao regions will break away from the PH and declare their independence. Its hard to predict if the leadership of these two new entities will be friendly, neutral, or hostile to China.