China's Defense/Military Breaking News Thread

[Temstar]

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More information is coming out from Taiwan itself regarding Kelly Craft's aborted trip to Taiwan in the last days of the Trump administration.

近日我方軍情及兩岸外交人士，也從多方管道得知不少片段訊息，經拼湊後大致的情況應該是，從1月7日到10日，中國透過外交管道向美方強烈抗議不得要領後，北京高層幾經考慮，決以軍事行動強力回應。11日解放軍透過中美2軍聯繫機制告知美國國防部，無法容忍克拉夫特訪台損及中國主權利益，當美國專機抵近台灣時，解放軍戰機也將會跟隨進入台灣領空，宣示台灣主權屬於中國的立場，若過程中遭遇台灣軍機阻擋，將不排除發生逕行開火等後果。

In recent days our military intelligence and cross strait diplomatic corp have acquired many pieces of information regarding this. After analysis the situation overall went thusly: from 7th of January to 10th of January China strongly protested via diplomatic channels (re Kelly Craft's trip) to no avail. After deliberation Beijing decided to respond with military force. On 11th of January PLA notified US DoD via military channels that China cannot tolerate Kelly Craft's action as they will damage the sovereignty of China. Once her plane nears Taiwan PLA aircraft will enter Taiwan airspace and declare sovereignty. If Taiwan aircraft were to interfere with this then they may be fired upon.

消息人士透露，當時五角大廈正忙著業務交接，根本沒料到中國軍方反應竟如此激烈，相關官員試圖與解放軍高層溝通但被拒絕。經緊急通知美軍印太司令部評估發現，若要保證克拉夫特專機安全降落台北，只有動用日本沖繩嘉手納基地的空軍第18聯隊F15C戰機護航一途，但美、中2國空軍將有發生軍事對峙的風險。

At the time The Pentagon was busy with the handover and did not expect such a strong response from the PLA. They attempted to contact PLA high command but was refused. Pentagon contacted United States Indo-Pacific Command and was told that the only way to ensure safety of Kelly Craft's plane was to mobilize F-15C from 18th Wing from Kadena Air Base, Okinawa for escort. But such as action risk military confrontation between China and US.

只不過若為避免美中直接衝突，改由台灣戰機全程護航情況可能更加棘手，一旦從共軍戰機大舉跨越中線進逼，恐會與台灣戰機在北台灣空域引爆戰火，屆時美國專機也怕會有安全顧慮，必須被迫轉降駐日美軍基地，這樣一來美軍即使能置身事外，但放任兩岸引燃戰火對美國來說也會是一場政治大災難。

Alternatively to avoid direct military confrontation between US and China ROCAF aircraft might be used instead for escort, but such a plan could also be very troublesome as once large number of PLAAF aircraft crosses the midline there is risk of aerial combat with ROCAF aircraft over northern Taiwan. Should that happen Kelly Craft's aircraft would be in danger and will be forced to turn and land in US airforce base in Japan. Although this means US forces will not be involved in any fighting it will still trigger war between Taiwawn and China, and thus cause a political disaster for the US.

美國國防部只好將共軍警告，及美軍相關評估結果告知國務院，並強烈建議克拉夫特應取消訪台，龐畢歐雖大感不滿，但審慎考量後果也同意踩下煞車。為避免外界聯想克拉夫特去不成台灣是因為中國施壓奏效，才以政權交接順利為由，一併取消國務院官員，包括龐畢歐自己的出訪計畫。由於最後克拉夫特沒出發，解放軍也未有挑釁行動，因而台灣朝野對這場北京及華盛頓間的大國角力渾然未覺，更不知已與台海戰火擦身而過。

Thus DoD was forced to send both the PLA warning as well as their estimate regarding US forces to the state department and recommend Kelly Craft's trip to Taiwan be cancelled. Pompeo was very upset but after considering the consequences was forced to hit the brakes. To avoid giving the impression that the cancellation of the trip was due to pressure from China he instead used the handover as excuse and not only cancelled the Taiwan trip, but also his own trip to Europe as well as all other trips by State Department staff. Thus in the end Kelly Craft did not go to Taiwan and PLA did not implement the threat. Because of this Taiwan's politic establishment never realised they were part of this political show of force between Beijing and Washington and how close war brushed by them.

 

[silentlurker]

So Pompeo was essentially planning on formally revoking the One China agreement? What a bomb to leave the next administration with.

 

[davidau]

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More information is coming out from Taiwan itself regarding Kelly Craft's aborted trip to Taiwan in the last days of the Trump administration.


In recent days our military intelligence and cross strait diplomatic corp have acquired many pieces of information regarding this. After analysis the situation overall went thusly: from 7th of January to 10th of January China strongly protested via diplomatic channels (re Kelly Craft's trip) to no avail. After deliberation Beijing decided to respond with military force. On 11th of January PLA notified US DoD via military channels that China cannot tolerate Kelly Craft's action as they will damage the sovereignty of China. Once her plane nears Taiwan PLA aircraft will enter Taiwan airspace and declare sovereignty. If Taiwan aircraft were to interfere with this then they may be fired upon.


At the time The Pentagon was busy with the handover and did not expect such a strong response from the PLA. They attempted to contact PLA high command but was refused. Pentagon contacted United States Indo-Pacific Command and was told that the only way to ensure safety of Kelly Craft's plane was to mobilize F-15C from 18th Wing from Kadena Air Base, Okinawa for escort. But such as action risk military confrontation between China and US.


Alternatively to avoid direct military confrontation between US and China ROCAF aircraft might be used instead for escort, but such a plan could also be very troublesome as once large number of PLAAF aircraft crosses the midline there is risk of aerial combat with ROCAF aircraft over northern Taiwan. Should that happen Kelly Craft's aircraft would be in danger and will be forced to turn and land in US airforce base in Japan. Although this means US forces will not be involved in any fighting it will still trigger war between Taiwawn and China, and thus cause a political disaster for the US.


Thus DoD was forced to send both the PLA warning as well as their estimate regarding US forces to the state department and recommend Kelly Craft's trip to Taiwan be cancelled. Pompeo was very upset but after considering the consequences was forced to hit the brakes. To avoid giving the impression that the cancellation of the trip was due to pressure from China he instead used the handover as excuse and not only cancelled the Taiwan trip, but also his own trip to Europe as well as all other trips by State Department staff. Thus in the end Kelly Craft did not go to Taiwan and PLA did not implement the threat. Because of this Taiwan's politic establishment never realised they were part of this political show of force between Beijing and Washington and how close war brushed by them.

This friction is blatantly created by US which reneged from the three communiques declaring there is but one China and Taiwan is an inalienble part of China, signed sealed and delivered by both China and US some years ago. With Biden he tries to project to be a strong man and wants to sell military hardware to Taiwan with increasing electronis spy planes around China southern province including Hainan. He basically want to provoke and test the redline of China. China does not want a war but is not afraid of a war to protect China's territorial integrity. One would have thought the US would have learnt its lessons in wars in Korea, Vietnam, and the ongoing in Afganistan and elsewhere in mideast countries.. But has it learnt a lesson?

 

[AssassinsMace]

The US thinks China will back down hence why they dared think of provoking China. On the other the US is more bark than bite. If the US was going to declare Taiwan an independent state, then they should've followed through. That's something important in the macro sense of things not just so they can get their kicks at annoying China. They think China wouldn't do anything? It just shows how far the US especially under Republicans are to reality that they were going to make a huge move like declaring Taiwan an independent country but because China showed it was going to act, they backed away. That shows you how much the US would do to defend Taiwan.

 

[AssassinsMace]

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I was wondering why there's a lot of noise about China invading Taiwan lately. Is it because the US just showed how much they won't do to defend Taiwan with this Kelly Craft stunt? Now that the US exposed their hand, that opens the door because since the US is out of touch with reality, they think China is even more and thus will invade Taiwan soon like all these stories I'm reading are predicting. I'm still waiting for China to invade Taiwan when the US was preoccupied with Iraq and Afghanistan as was predicted then too.

 

[ansy1968]

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I was wondering why there's a lot of noise about China invading Taiwan lately. Is it because the US just showed how much they won't do to defend Taiwan with this Kelly Craft stunt? Now that the US exposed their hand, that opens the door because since the US is out of touch with reality, they think China is even more and thus will invade Taiwan soon like all these stories I'm reading are predicting. I'm still waiting for China to invade Taiwan when the US was preoccupied with Iraq and Afghanistan as was predicted then too.

@AssassinsMace a predicate for abandoning Taiwan? TSMC Arizona FAB is one of those clues together with Taiwanese technician that will operate it? the major problem I see with the latest discrimination and abuse against Asian especially Chinese in the US it may hinder such recruitment.

 

[Temstar]

The other interesting implication of this news is the very fact that this news has emerged from Taiwanese media. DPP has very strong control over media in Taiwan and I can hardly imagine them be happy about this getting out. So the question is how is it this news came out and who wanted to push it.

Public opinion within Taiwan regarding cross-strait relation can be basically be summed up with "PRC don't dare to invade us because US has our back", this opinion is formed with a steady diet of negative news about PRC. Someone may be trying to change that in Taiwan to try to turn the ship around. Question is who.

The New Party gang will be talking about this tonight and I'm very interested in hearing what they think.

 

[escobar]

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More information is coming out from Taiwan itself regarding Kelly Craft's aborted trip to Taiwan in the last days of the Trump administration.


In recent days our military intelligence and cross strait diplomatic corp have acquired many pieces of information regarding this. After analysis the situation overall went thusly: from 7th of January to 10th of January China strongly protested via diplomatic channels (re Kelly Craft's trip) to no avail. After deliberation Beijing decided to respond with military force. On 11th of January PLA notified US DoD via military channels that China cannot tolerate Kelly Craft's action as they will damage the sovereignty of China. Once her plane nears Taiwan PLA aircraft will enter Taiwan airspace and declare sovereignty. If Taiwan aircraft were to interfere with this then they may be fired upon.


At the time The Pentagon was busy with the handover and did not expect such a strong response from the PLA. They attempted to contact PLA high command but was refused. Pentagon contacted United States Indo-Pacific Command and was told that the only way to ensure safety of Kelly Craft's plane was to mobilize F-15C from 18th Wing from Kadena Air Base, Okinawa for escort. But such as action risk military confrontation between China and US.


Alternatively to avoid direct military confrontation between US and China ROCAF aircraft might be used instead for escort, but such a plan could also be very troublesome as once large number of PLAAF aircraft crosses the midline there is risk of aerial combat with ROCAF aircraft over northern Taiwan. Should that happen Kelly Craft's aircraft would be in danger and will be forced to turn and land in US airforce base in Japan. Although this means US forces will not be involved in any fighting it will still trigger war between Taiwawn and China, and thus cause a political disaster for the US.


Thus DoD was forced to send both the PLA warning as well as their estimate regarding US forces to the state department and recommend Kelly Craft's trip to Taiwan be cancelled. Pompeo was very upset but after considering the consequences was forced to hit the brakes. To avoid giving the impression that the cancellation of the trip was due to pressure from China he instead used the handover as excuse and not only cancelled the Taiwan trip, but also his own trip to Europe as well as all other trips by State Department staff. Thus in the end Kelly Craft did not go to Taiwan and PLA did not implement the threat. Because of this Taiwan's politic establishment never realised they were part of this political show of force between Beijing and Washington and how close war brushed by them.

A Taiwanese media reporting citing social media chatter and "Taiwan govt. officials" as a source for something allegedly coming from top secret US intelligence and decision making. Lot of doubt, not serious

 

[voyager1]

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I was wondering why there's a lot of noise about China invading Taiwan lately. Is it because the US just showed how much they won't do to defend Taiwan with this Kelly Craft stunt? Now that the US exposed their hand, that opens the door because since the US is out of touch with reality, they think China is even more and thus will invade Taiwan soon like all these stories I'm reading are predicting. I'm still waiting for China to invade Taiwan when the US was preoccupied with Iraq and Afghanistan as was predicted then too.

I wouldnt put too much stock on what they are saying. Expect the military complex to drum up the China threat as much as they can so they can get even more budget, it seems their 750 Billion budget is still not enough.

And I don't know why but i have a suspicion that by 2030 the US budget could reach 1 Trillion and they would still want more...

The MIC complex is really bleeding the US dry and it doesnt seem like they want to stop, you could actually say that they are accelerating it

 

[ougoah]

The Americans have been drumming up China panic and fearmongering quite a lot in the last month. From the ridiculously hilarious "China's navy is bigger than the USN" to losing simulated war games. Very devious manipulator who's basically done this so many times in the past, it's more a political statement these days.

Gotta watch what they do though. It seems there are moves toward building up justifications and anxious trigger fingers.