China's Defense/Military Breaking News Thread

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voyager1

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ougoah said:
The Americans have been drumming up China panic and fearmongering quite a lot in the last month. From the ridiculously hilarious "China's navy is bigger than the USN" to losing simulated war games. Very devious manipulator who's basically done this so many times in the past, it's more a political statement these days.

Gotta watch what they do though. It seems there are moves toward building up justifications and anxious trigger fingers.
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I dont think they can do more. The problem is that there is strategic imbalance between China and USA.
USA is used to being the global hegemon with influence and commitments spanning the entire globe. China, avoids security interests and guarantees on world like a plague.

So for China to disrupt the US it is very easy. China can and is actively building regional powers, from the South America to Africa to Middle East to Europe. In europe especially you can this on Xi expressing support for EU's "strategic autonomy" strategy every time he communicates with EU leaders. The same applies also in the Middle East.

China doesnt care too much if it loses influence on EU or Middle East because as long as these powers get stronger militarily and get more domestic resilient supplies then US will lose more influence upon them and then China with its more pragmatic leaders can offer economic incentives to deal with them without having the US interfere (1st example is EU-China deal, and many more will soon follow)

So for the US which it's economy is in relative decline the only thing which it can increase its influence is on the security domain which China's strategy of promoting regional forums, blocks and aiding on their domestic military capabilities directly counters the US security influence
 
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Dolcevita

Major
ougoah said:
The Americans have been drumming up China panic and fearmongering quite a lot in the last month. From the ridiculously hilarious "China's navy is bigger than the USN" to losing simulated war games. Very devious manipulator who's basically done this so many times in the past, it's more a political statement these days.

Gotta watch what they do though. It seems there are moves toward building up justifications and anxious trigger fingers.
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It's the same as the US-USSR cold war playbook. And an effective one for MIC.
 
Temstar

Temstar

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In Wednesday's 观棋有语, Mr Su said the "
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" statement from Philip Davidson is actually based on US calculation of weather or not PLA is capable of projecting an entire mechanised army group onto Taiwan in a single wave. It is in their estimate that in six years PLA will have this capability without requisitioning any civilian vessels.

According to Mr Su, funnily enough PLA also have similar view. At current time it is not yet possible and were reunification to take place tomorrow, PLA will have to make use of commercial RORO vessels. I recall Xi Yazhou have said in this
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that current PLA reunification plan calls for an artificial harbour to be deployed to Taiwan coast and commercial RORO vessel be used to rapidly offload armour vehicles at the harbour. In the 90s when simulations were run this would require one existing harbour in Taiwan to be captured as well as one artificial harbour to provide sufficient offloading capacity for PLAGF. At this time the requirement to capture an existing harbour is no longer required and a single artificial harbour would suffice. At some point in the future (probably less than six years if you ask PLA) even the artificial harbour requirement would no longer be required and LHD/LPD/LST along would be sufficient to project an army group in a single wave.

Once this capability is achieved both US and China would consider the situation "GG no re".
 
Team Blue

Team Blue

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ougoah said:
The Americans have been drumming up China panic and fearmongering quite a lot in the last month. From the ridiculously hilarious "China's navy is bigger than the USN" to losing simulated war games. Very devious manipulator who's basically done this so many times in the past, it's more a political statement these days.

Gotta watch what they do though. It seems there are moves toward building up justifications and anxious trigger fingers.
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The last month? I don't remember us *not* drumming up fear over China.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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More information is coming out from Taiwan itself regarding Kelly Craft's aborted trip to Taiwan in the last days of the Trump administration.


In recent days our military intelligence and cross strait diplomatic corp have acquired many pieces of information regarding this. After analysis the situation overall went thusly: from 7th of January to 10th of January China strongly protested via diplomatic channels (re Kelly Craft's trip) to no avail. After deliberation Beijing decided to respond with military force. On 11th of January PLA notified US DoD via military channels that China cannot tolerate Kelly Craft's action as they will damage the sovereignty of China. Once her plane nears Taiwan PLA aircraft will enter Taiwan airspace and declare sovereignty. If Taiwan aircraft were to interfere with this then they may be fired upon.


At the time The Pentagon was busy with the handover and did not expect such a strong response from the PLA. They attempted to contact PLA high command but was refused. Pentagon contacted United States Indo-Pacific Command and was told that the only way to ensure safety of Kelly Craft's plane was to mobilize F-15C from 18th Wing from Kadena Air Base, Okinawa for escort. But such as action risk military confrontation between China and US.


Alternatively to avoid direct military confrontation between US and China ROCAF aircraft might be used instead for escort, but such a plan could also be very troublesome as once large number of PLAAF aircraft crosses the midline there is risk of aerial combat with ROCAF aircraft over northern Taiwan. Should that happen Kelly Craft's aircraft would be in danger and will be forced to turn and land in US airforce base in Japan. Although this means US forces will not be involved in any fighting it will still trigger war between Taiwawn and China, and thus cause a political disaster for the US.


Thus DoD was forced to send both the PLA warning as well as their estimate regarding US forces to the state department and recommend Kelly Craft's trip to Taiwan be cancelled. Pompeo was very upset but after considering the consequences was forced to hit the brakes. To avoid giving the impression that the cancellation of the trip was due to pressure from China he instead used the handover as excuse and not only cancelled the Taiwan trip, but also his own trip to Europe as well as all other trips by State Department staff. Thus in the end Kelly Craft did not go to Taiwan and PLA did not implement the threat. Because of this Taiwan's politic establishment never realised they were part of this political show of force between Beijing and Washington and how close war brushed by them.
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Confirmed at around 55 minute mark.
 
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