China won Turkey's missile defense competition

tphuang

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I think everyone is over thinking this a little.
Despite turkey being a NATO member, ankara has been moving away from NATO politically of late, and it is a stretch to believe the US would exert such control over what is through and through, another nation's affairs. Nor is it the first time a US ally has bought non US/NATO equipment.

We might think its groud breaking that a Chinese SAM managed to beat out international peers in a competition, but in the scheme of things it is just another day at the office for the other vendors.

We should take a moment to ponder if the FD-2000 sale may lead HQ-9 to be compromised if US sought to strongarm a "look" at turkey's eventual systems, but this is an export version, likely with relevant modifications and safeguards in place to mitigate what an enemy may be able to serve to use against the domestic HQ-9, and there are other ways to control sensitive components, such as stationing a permanent liaison or technician to "watch over" the systems and make sure the Turks don't let ill motives parties get their hands on it.

It is a ground breaking win, because China has never won anything close to this large outside its own turf of Asian and African countries. This might turn out to be even larger export deal than JF-17 project (really depends on how many PAF purchases). China is certainly not at the level of those other vendors (Especially Lockmart and Rosoboronexport)

It will be an export version of HQ-9 (called FD-2000) so chances are any sensitive hardware and software would be substantially modified or downgraded from the domestic version. No way they would've sold the mainstay of their IADS without considering all the juicy intelligence US could siphon from it.

and 3 billion (actually 3 billion - costs) would probably be peanuts compared to whatever PLA is allocating to fund the HQ-9 successor.

It has -- on quite a few defence media sites. Don't expect mainstream media to give this deal much exposure, it's not that news worthy for your average joe.

Well, we don't quite know if HQ-9 actually has a slant range that high, despite what sinodefence.com says. I remember a brochure years ago saying it was more like 120km, which is still competitive with the other offerings, mind. And the presence of an AESA acquisition radar isn't exactly unique to HQ-9, all the others had high performance phased array radars as well, probably with comparable anti LO performance.

No, I think what won china this deal (apart from competitive performance), was its low price, terms such as co production and tech transfer, turkey's movements towards a more independent foreign policy outside of NATO, and possible under the table doodads that may include "unrelated" economic deals, probably in about that order of importance.

I agree with most of this. I think the brochure said 125 km, which is already an improvement over 90 km of FT-2000. But the actual engagement envelope of the system they export is classified. And I would think if they are transferring technology and working with Turkish on this one, the system will end up with better specs than what's advertised on the trade shows. Especially since all of the advancements thtat they continue to make in long range SAM.

The other thing to think of is that Russians were offering similar advantages like lower price (although not as low), co-production, tech transfers and independence of NATO and HQ-9 beat S-300PMU2. That to me is a huge deal, because PMU2 is a really great system.
 

tphuang

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I don't think the buy US incentive would have been offered here along with there upgrade there is one other trend I have noticed about Turkish arms buys. When they decided on HK416 for there new rifle they licensed production instead of importation, when they bought the K2 tank and howitzers from Korea they designed there own vehicle around the tech. When they bought the Agusta Mangusta they licensed production, when they bought the UH60T they licensed production. The US government arms incentive is based on buy American made. This program likely would be Turkish made. Even the HQ9s built will likely be made in Turkey, not China.

It's true that Turkey doesn't always buy American stuff. In fact, China has already exported WS-1B to Turkey. However, the other major programs that you mentioned are still buying from NATO and other American allies rather than China and Russia. This is a big deal. It's most likely that the existing Turkish air defense sytem will not be that ingtegrated with HQ-9, because sensitivities regarding compromise of technology and such. Remember, NATO made a big deal that Turkish air force dared to have an exercise with PLAAF a couple of years ago.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
nahhhh, Turkey is not Israel. Turkey is fully sovereign country.

Israel is open to go it's own way and has on occasion do, The Israelis are moving to there own rifles, pistols Tanks, IFVs, ATGMs. Despite the propaganda Isreal is a Fully Sovereign nation.
The reason they buy American is, One they like it.
The US cuts them sweetheart deals. IE If it's made in the USA or at least a large part of it is the US Government will subsidise thats why the Isrealis have stuck with M4 the USA practicly gave them away. And Why IWI just opened a Tavor Plant here in the USA.
the systems give then a technological edge and the US is willing to produce systems to Isreali specs.
The Other nations have either Burned them (France, UK) or sold to anti israeli nations like Iran and Syria ( France, Russia, China).
 

weig2000

Captain
This is a big deal. It's most likely that the existing Turkish air defense sytem will not be that ingtegrated with HQ-9, because sensitivities regarding compromise of technology and such. Remember, NATO made a big deal that Turkish air force dared to have an exercise with PLAAF a couple of years ago.

I believe this is a very important Turkish consideration in this deal. Remember much has been made about the incompatibility of FD-2000 with NATO air defense systems as a disadvantage, but I think this is precisely what Turkey wants: a more independent air defense systems of their own, outside NATO system.

A high-profile defense deal is never completely based on technology and economic terms only, not for a country like Turkey, not in a region like Middle East. This deal tells us as much about Turkey's politics and geopolitics as China' defense industry capabilities.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
It would also mean the Chinese would have access to NATO systems since the Turks would want the systems to be integrated.

Unlikely, NATO and the US would never allow that. Remember America got awfully sniffy at the idea of PLAAF Su27s holding joint exercises with F16s. They don't even allow Turkish engineers full access to the equipment they sold to Turkey (all those black boxes) never mind Chinese ones.

I think that may be a factor in why China won this bid, and I think its pretty much guaranteed that the PLA would not allow anything too sensitive to be releases that might jeopardise the effectiveness of their own HQ9s. In addition, if we follow the trend set by previous Chinese weapons sales, it would also strongly hint that a HQ9 follow on system has either been developed or is not too far from it if they are making HQ9s available for export.

Going back integrating the HQ9s into the existing and planned future Turkish AD network, the HQ9 win points to two possibilities.

1) The HQ9 is only just the first step, and Turkey is planning to move away from a western based AD network to an indiginous one with possibily major Chinese components. If that is the case, we could expect maybe additional major wins for other Chinese systems ranging from radars, underground fiber optic networks, C&C centres and maybe even stuff like AWACS and fighters.

Politically, this is actually not as unlikely as it may appear because there is growing dissatisfaction in Turkey about the foot dragging over its EU membership application and many US foreign policy moves in recent years. Without the unifying external threat of the USSR, and full EU membership looking increasingly like a false promise, there just isn't a great deal to bind Turkey to NATO's orbit these days.

In this context, it would not be out of the question for Turkey to want to pursue a more independent foreign policy and start getting closer to the rising economic and military power, especially when it looks like the US and EU are stagnating or even on the decline. At the very least, the threat of Turkey re-aligning itself would turn on the heat in Washington and Brussels, and America might feel obliged to put pressure on the EU to move forwards with Turkish membership least Turkey gets pulled into the orbit of their rival.

2) That the HQ9 deal involves significantly more ToT than mere local assembly from knock down kits. This could solve both Turkish integration issues and also PLA security concerns if the HQ9 variant on offer was less an off-the-shelf dumbed down version of the PLA's HQ9s, but more of a brand new system that uses the HQ9 technology but which is tailor made for Turkey along similar lines as the JF17 for Pakistan. The close relations between Turkey and Pakistan, and the great experience Pakistan has had cooperating with China on the JF17 may have also been a factor which influenced this Turkish decision.

Turkey would have full access to all the technology, source codes and the actual systems themselves with no black boxes. Not only would this give Turkey full confidence in the security and reliability of the systems, but it would also allow full customisation and integration with anything else Turkey has similar access to.

China would also benefit from this arrangement in that by allowing Turkey to make the system fully their own, it also gives Turkey a huge incentive to protect the secrets of the weapons system because those secrets are also Turkey's own secrets. And even if NATO got access to the HQ9s (if the systems sold to Turkey could still be called that), they would only know how to effective jam and counter those Turkish systems.
 

TyroneG

Banned Idiot
there's also discussion of China and Turkey partnership of project on the enhancement of HQ9. Turkey has full access and exposure to western arms and know the standard so this partnership will definitely improve HQ9 capability on the next version.

Turkey has sitting on this for awhile now, but why making the decision now?

Could it coincide with the ramp up of 052C/052D? Meaning Turkey seeing the HQ9 system is maturing even on the PLAN side, maybe Turkey wants to acquire China's 052D in the future?
 
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chuck731

Banned Idiot
It would also mean the Chinese would have access to NATO systems since the Turks would want the systems to be integrated.

Perhaps under the table. Turkey wants displomatic independence from and leverage over NATO, no doubt, but it would be foolish for Turkey to openly burn bridges with NATO and the west.
 

chuck731

Banned Idiot
Turkey has sitting on this for awhile now, but why making the decision now?

Could it coincide with the ramp up of 052C/052D? Meaning Turkey seeing the HQ9 system is maturing even on the PLAN side, maybe Turkey wants to acquire China's 052D in the future?

I seriously doubte it. If 052C/D would have helped China sell missiles to Turkey, then undoubtedly the Turkish would have been given private previews of 052C/D program two or three years ago. So the impact of 052C/D would not have waited this long to manifest itself.

More likely it is a proceedural thing, the Turks had favored Chinese system over competitors for some time, but wanted to give competitors the chance to improve their offer to match the Chinese system, so as to give Turkey the best possible menu to choose from. The competitors were not willing to improve their offer to the point where they would tip the balance back in their own favor, so now Turkey made the decision.

I also think it is also possible Turkey chose this exact moment to announce this decision because of the Syrian crisis. Turkey received scant support from NATO to turther turkish interests in Syria. US made a half hearted effort to incidentally help Turkish interests in Syrian in an indirect, minor way and then backed out, Russia was totally against Turkish interests all the way. So Turkey is now making it displeasure felt.

After being turned away from the EU, I think Turkey sees her own future in establishing herself as the leading power amongst northern parts of the former Ottoman central asia, especially amongst the turkic speaking peoples of the various Stans stretching all the way to China. The other big, relatively modern and wealthy power here to stay in central asia is China, and China could potentially make or break Turkish ability to establish influence over Turkishstan in Central Asia. So I think it is not a stretch to think in the long term, Turkey sees some form of security partnership with China as an important tool to achieve its vision of its own future role.
 
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Skywatcher

Captain
Given that China knocked down the price from $4 billion to $3 billion, could some of those savings have simply come from not including non-NATO compatible C4ISR gear?
 
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