China tests ASAT

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Duran

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......
I seriously question about the point 1 you listed above. It is understandable that US wold want a ABM shield becasue it is expecting to handle no more than 20 ICBMs at the maximum. If China were to develop her own ABM shield, how many incoming should she be prepareing for? The cost would be devestating and China would never get itself into that kind of arms race. A better way for her to gain insurance would be to produce a few hundred more ICBMs now that the new generations are all mobile. I remember reading from somewhere that it used to cost China only 100mil Chinese Yuan each for the ICBMs capable of hitting the US - that's like 12million US dollars. With a foreign reserve of over 10 trillion USD, it would be pocket change to build up 200 more ICBMs...
Well, I agree with you, it is not economical in the first place. But you also need to have your 'shield', unless you have your 'silver bullet'. In your suggestion, you suggest to prepare more bullets for future confrontation. What is the point for the manufacturing of tens of thousand nuclear warheads, to kill yourself as well?

Really, I don't see any legitimate or moral ground to nuke other countries. Should one day the confrontation between two sides escalating to be the situation of nuclear exchange, then what we can do is praying and,
long agriculture commodities (as much as you can), short Nikkei and all world indexes (as much as you can). (Don't forget to make money even before you might die. This is the real chance of a life time ha ha:roll:. Sorry for being :eek:ff. )

Yeah, let's hope this latest PLA test can put pressure on the US to finally agree to a comprehensive ban on weapons in space.
I guess the answer is quite clear.
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Dongfeng

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China confirms satellite downed

From BBC

China has confirmed it carried out a test that destroyed a satellite, in a move that caused international alarm.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said a test had been carried out but insisted China was committed to the "peaceful development of outer space".

The US backed reports last week that China had used a ground-based medium-range ballistic missile to destroy a weather satellite.

A senior Taiwanese politician said he viewed it as an aggressive act.

It is the first known satellite intercept test for more than 20 years.

Several countries, including Japan, Australia and the US, have expressed concern at the test, amid worries it could trigger a space arms race.

Until Tuesday, China had refused to confirm or deny the 11 January test.

International concern

Liu Jianchao told reporters that China had notified "other parties and... the American side" of its test.

"But China stresses that it has consistently advocated the peaceful development of outer space and it opposes the arming of space and military competition in space," he told a news conference.

"China has never, and will never, participate in any form of space arms race."

However, Dr Joseph Wu, head of the body responsible for Taiwan's relations with China, viewed it differently.

"This is an aggressive act by the Chinese side," he told the BBC on a visit to Japan.

"I don't think it's just limited to Taiwan only but of course... Taiwan stands out to be the first country that might have to suffer if a future conflict were to erupt between China and some other countries."

China sees Taiwan as part of its territory and has threatened to use force if the island ever moved to declare formal independence.

The US, which is committed to provide Taiwan with defensive weapons, supports the status quo.

US spy satellites watch over the Taiwan Straits, and coordinating any defence against a possible Chinese invasion would be made much harder if those spy satellites were destroyed.

Debris fears

The magazine American Aviation Week and Space Technology reported that a Chinese Feng Yun 1C polar orbit weather satellite had been destroyed by an anti-satellite system launched from or near China's Xichang Space Centre on 11 January.

The test is thought to have occurred at more than 537 miles (865km) above the Earth.

The report was confirmed by US National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe last Thursday.

He said at the time the US "believes China's development and testing of such weapons is inconsistent with the spirit of co-operation that both countries aspire to in the civil space area".

Japan and Australia also spoke of their fears of a possible new arms race in space.

There are already growing international concerns about China's rising military power.

While Beijing keeps its defence spending a secret, analysts say that it has grown rapidly in recent years.

China is now only the third country to shoot something down in space.

Both the US and the Soviet Union halted their tests in the 1980s over concerns that the debris they produced could harm civilian and military satellite operations.

While the US may be unhappy about China's actions, the Washington administration has recently opposed international calls to end such tests.

It revised US space policy last October to state that Washington had the right to freedom of action in space, and the US is known to be researching such "satellite-killing" weapons itself.
 

Dongfeng

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A good article by Richard Spencer, the jounalist of Telegraph in Beijing

Drinks party without drinks

Posted by Richard Spencer at 22 Jan 07 12:08

It was held on Friday at the Beijing Urban Planning Exhibition Hall, a must-see place for visitors by the way, both for the vision of Beijing present and future and for its film shows (including a 3-D one) on how it got where it is. (Not absolutely everything is told, of course, but that's for a different day).

One unusual aspect was the fact that you are not actually allowed to take drinks or food into the main level of the exhibition centre, so for the most party it was a drinks party without any drinks. This is hard for a hack to comprehend, of course, but in some ways it made everything easier.

Fumbling with your business card with a glass of red wine in one hand is always an accident waiting to happen, in my experience, and of course, apart from gossiping, fumbling for business cards is the main purpose of these events.

The second unusual aspect was that as of January 1, the reporting restrictions which said we were breaking the law every time we left Beijing or interviewed someone without Foreign Ministry permission and minders have been lifted.

This meant that there was a lot of mutual backslapping going on, rather than the usual slightly cagey conversations about what we had been up to and, of course, how journalists shouldn't criticise China even if it tried to stop them doing their job.

There have been a couple of cases where the new rules have been called in already: see my Economist colleague's account of his experiences in one of China's "Aids" villages. (The odd link is because the magazine itself is behind a paywall.)

However, what really made the evening go with a bang was the fate of a conked out Chinese weather satellite, which was blown up by a ground-based missile, at least according to the Pentagon.

The news came out long after we had all gone to bed on Thursday, and on Friday, when we tried to get comments from the Ministries of Defence and Foreign Affairs, there came none. Phones rang out or switched to answerphone, or were just engaged. One official blustered about it all being made up - not really convincingly.

So poor old Liu Jianchao, the foreign ministry's chief spokesman, was a sitting duck when he arrived for his evening's mixer. Surrounded constantly by throngs of journalists desperate to get the official quote, he didn't even have any line to give.

Even now, the Chinese have refused to put out a statement confirming or denying the report.

He took it in good spirit, and gave us an emphatic restatement of China's formal opposition to an arms race in space without the slightest sign of defensiveness (I've pointed out before that the Oxford-educated Liu is a benign High Court judge of a spokesman, which not all such are).

His hounding pushed the Peking Opera that had been laid on for us into second place.

As for the meaning of what he said, I don't really buy the line put out by the United States today that the military could have done this without the people at the top knowing, nice though it might be to think that the "leaders" are decent people "we can do business with" and it's just the PLA that has the odd hawkish general.

Hu Jintao, after all, is head of the military commission, and the army definitively answers to the Party. Would they really launch something like this without telling him?

I think it's highly possible that the foreign ministry genuinely weren't informed, as Liu said: I don't believe his "no comment, but here's the standard line" response to questioning was a carefully veiled putting of the ball into America's court (because of its refusal to take part in a moratorium on space weapons).

There are better ways of getting that message out, and really, we should not forget that the foreign ministry is really rather unimportant in the general hierarchy of things. The foreign minister isn't in the politburo (unlike the defence minister).

As for the general purpose of the test: of course, it was aimed to some extent at the extraordinary American policy document last year which stated baldly that while the Pentagon was allowed to proceed with weaponising space, no-one else was.

But it's important to be careful about what a moratorium on space weaponry might mean.

There's a big difference between space weapons as understood in this context - which means firing missiles from satellites, or more likely using satellite-based lasers or satellite-launched "sat-mines" to knock out your opponents' satellites, and the use of satellites for other military purposes; and also compared to using ground-based missiles to knock out satellites.

It makes sense that China (and Russia) want a moratorium on the first category, because they are so far behind in this area. (And predictable that the US wouldn't agree to one, because they are so far ahead).

It seems to me that a moratorium on satellites used for all military purposes is out of the question - satellites are now basic equipment for spying on your enemies, directing missiles, etc.

And given that is so, and also that the US is pretty far ahead in this area too, it makes sense for the Chinese to threaten to use ground-based missiles to knock them out. Why wouldn't it?

I'm sure the Chinese would like to do a deal that got the Americans to withdraw the missile defence system (using satellites to enable anti-missile missiles to hit their targets).

But I don't think the Americans are going to give in on that one, either.

And given how easy it is, apparently, to turn an ordinary missile into a satellite missile, giving up MDS development for some pledge (or what?) by the Chinese not to blow up any more of their defunct satellites doesn't strike me as something the Americans would see as a fair exchange.

So while I'm sure the Chinese would like to use their technical capability in this area as a means of negotiating some concession, I'm not sure they know what, and I'm pretty sure both that they won't get anywhere and that they know they won't get anywhere.

So why did they knock out this satellite? I think the simplest reasons are best: to make sure they could, and to make sure everyone knew they could. Is any other explanation necessary?
 

mickchew

New Member
Hi Dong Feng,

A very interesting perpective.

you stated:
There's a big difference between space weapons as understood in this context - which means firing missiles from satellites, or more likely using satellite-based lasers or satellite-launched "sat-mines" to knock out your opponents' satellites, and the use of satellites for other military purposes; and also compared to using ground-based missiles to knock out satellites.

It makes sense that China (and Russia) want a moratorium on the first category, because they are so far behind in this area. (And predictable that the US wouldn't agree to one, because they are so far ahead).


To make sure I understood you correctly, I have a few questions:

First the assumptions:
1) The US and Russia both have the capability of "killing " satellites (proven in the mid-eighties).

2) The US and Russia could easily become adversaries if recent geopolitical events are any indication.

3)In the "first" category you stated namely satellite lasers I assume you are talking about satellites being used as a weapon to either shoot down ICBMs, enemy satellites or other ground based military targets.

Questions:
1) Why would the US develop satellite lasers so far in advance if it could be vulnerable to a missile attack (even discounting the recent Chinese demonstration) say from Russia whether from an aircraft launched missile or sat-mines.

2) A moratorium on weapons? Like rules in a knife fight. Does'nt work in real life. I am sure the US, Russia and China knows this.

3) Why would the Chinese want to negotiate anything? They are developing the cheaper end of the equation. The "first-category" stuff you mentioned sure as hell sounds a lot more expensive than the el-cheapo missile display on Jan 11th.

My take on this....arms race from here on. Until these countries reach parity (i.e. like MAD in the 80s).

By the way feel free to rip-to shreds what I said above.


Regards,
Michael
 

maozedong

Banned Idiot
:coffee:
10:47 january 23, 2007 18:cns 17, the china news january 23 (reporter Li Jing) -- Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said the Chinese side on the 23rd on a recent test of outer space, China has always stood for peaceful use of outer space and opposed the weaponization of and an arms race in outer space, China has never, will not take part in any form of arms race in outer space. Liu stressed that the tests are not directed against any country, nor pose a threat to any country. He said that the concerns expressed by interested parties, including the United States,japan, China has made the state informed the pilot of outer space.
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Schumacher

Senior Member
.......
I guess the answer is quite clear.
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Well, only time will tell. What China did was classic cold war tactic of displaying their capability in response to US's new provocative space policy last year. What the US can do now is to restart their ASAT program, but I don't think the PLA will care much abt that given they don't have many sats anyway. Or the US can work to improve the survivability of its sats against attacks which I suspect will be more difficult & costly than attacking them, attacking sats are 'easy' remember ? :)
Then, we'll have a mini arms race in space. Sounds like a good investment if, by pulling this inexpensive & 'easy' stunts, PLA can force the US to respond with costly measures.
 

fishhead

Banned Idiot
It's quite interesting in diplomatic front. Seems Chinese were not prepared for this kind of reaction, caught off guard this time, although not totally credited to the US government's intention.

They have raised this space issue to Americans for quite long time, in public or private, but yankees never take it seriously and refused to talk. At the same time, under table activities have been going on as well, neither cause much attention from Americans. Last year's blinding US sats just led to some unofficial complains from US. This time it's the same at the beginning, American kept the secret for one week, until some space hobbists found it out.

So for Chinese, it's quite logical to assume this is an issue btwn US, Russia, and China, and nobody else. They just need to deliver this under table message to the Americans, and nothing more required. The US government is forced to look for an answer from China when the news is disclosed. But this time Chinese is in no hurry, they want to watch how America reacts: angry? panic? rhetoric? or something else, to decide their answer. Also this is the chance of revenge for American's arrogance, it's Chinese turn not to answer the call.

American reaction is fierce, through the medias, but in a pretty weak and mild tone. A lot of talks about space debris, but the real issue is the human being are at the door step of space arm race. It's the American way to dodge questions, also strength the Chinese believings: only when you come with power and kick yankee's ass, they will talk to you.

In the next a few months, you will see the hot debate about American's space policy.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
The "first-category" stuff you mentioned sure as hell sounds a lot more expensive than the el-cheapo missile display on Jan 11th.
Well, there is an arguement to be made for economies of scale. If you put a functional, mnore capable (and more expenisve) system in space, then it will be able to work for quite some time, taking out many targets and maybe even defending itself for the cost of the system and one boost into space.

The so called cheaper systems have to be boosted into orbit every time they are used...and that is also expensive. Sooner or later you will want to spend your money on a system that has more longevity and can take out many targets for its cost plus the one boost into space, rather than spending the bulk of your money on boost into orbit. Where is that point...I don't know...but at some point, if you can secure enough kills from the system, it becomes cheaper than boosting into orbit every time you want to hit something.

Just a thought.
 

fishhead

Banned Idiot
Well, there is an arguement to be made for economies of scale. If you put a functional, mnore capable (and more expenisve) system in space, then it will be able to work for quite some time, taking out many targets and maybe even defending itself for the cost of the system and one boost into space.

The so called cheaper systems have to be boosted into orbit every time they are used...and that is also expensive. Sooner or later you will want to spend your money on a system that has more longevity and can take out many targets for its cost plus the one boost into space, rather than spending the bulk of your money on boost into orbit. Where is that point...I don't know...but at some point, if you can secure enough kills from the system, it becomes cheaper than boosting into orbit every time you want to hit something.

Just a thought.

There is plan already on Chinese table that they will mine the LEO with cloud of steel balls in the worst case scenario.

It's darn cheap, just need to fill two orbits with them, one polar and equitor, you basically disable the whole LEO for 50 years.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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I dare say you are right Jeff, but deploying such a system at this time would be raising the Anti quite considerably.

The important thing is that the system has been shown to be effective. I would guess that an Orbital version would only be launched if tensions were rising sharply.

More generally though, the more I think about this, the more I wonder if China was doing this just on its own.

The sanguine tone of the Russians maked me wonder if this is an SCO endeavour. Russia of course has an understanding with the US which precludes it from active participation, it does however have much technical expertise and of course, Substantial tracking facilites.

Now I am not saying that China could not do this on its own, it is however more sensible for it to do something like this in conjunction with its Regional Partners in order to enhance the Regional Security aspect, rather than risk weakening it.
 
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