Intelligence Brief: Russia Wary of China's Anti-Satellite Capabilities
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China's recently acquired ability to disable space-based satellites received due attention by practically every major power around the world. Much of the analysis surrounding the January 11 test has centered on the threat that this capability poses for the United States. Clearly, the U.S. position in space has been somewhat compromised by the Chinese since more than half of all artificial satellites in Earth's orbit are American, and Washington stands most to lose if China expands its space capabilities.
In reality, however, China has a long way to go before it can openly and directly challenge U.S. dominance in space. Research and development, manufacturing, testing and fielding of any future Chinese anti-satellite system will be answered by the United States and its allies. At the moment, the United States has both the funds and the abilities to field extensive counter-measures to Chinese space advances, a cost many other countries would find prohibitive.
Lost in the chorus of analysis is how Russia likely perceives the Chinese test. Although Russia has been mentioned by most analysts as one of the concerned states, nearly every assessment has centered on the United States. Clearly, it is not popular today to argue that Russia considers China a potential threat. Numerous official visits and even joint Sino-Russian military exercises seem to underscore the developing relationship between China and Russia. Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Hu Jintao take every opportunity to underscore the "friendship and cooperation" between the two states in trade, military ties and diplomacy. Still, China's sudden breakthrough in space and anti-satellite technology did not go unnoticed in Moscow.
First, Russia has many of its military, intelligence and even communication satellites in low Earth orbit, somewhere between 320 to 804 kilometers (200 to 500 miles) above ground. Such distance puts them within easy reach of China's new capabilities. Beijing, for example, destroyed its aging satellite at approximately 865 kilometers (537 miles) above ground.
While Russia has advocated many changes to its military doctrine -- including greater funding for its high-tech military assets -- it still operates many satellites that have been put into orbit toward the end of the Soviet Union or just after its break-up. Russia relies on these "eyes and ears" in the sky for its security. Nowhere is that more relevant than on the huge open spaces of Siberia and the Far East -- the massive territory east of the Ural mountains. Russia's sparse population in that region, the need to monitor the borders, and the existence of high-profile military and R&D assets in Russia's eastern territory necessitates constant surveillance and observation. The recent economic development of the region -- oil and natural gas exploration and the importance Moscow now attaches to such industries -- makes it ever more necessary to keep an eye on this expanse.
China's recent interests in the Russian Far East and the constant debate about Chinese cross-border immigration to that region add to the importance of constant observation of vast open spaces that hold huge quantities of much-coveted natural resources. If Moscow's ability to observe and monitor even a part of that region were to be degraded to any degree, it would be at a disadvantage in its ability to see what takes place on the ground. Lack of roads and railroads and degraded infrastructure already make any official Russian response to a military or a humanitarian emergency there difficult. If Moscow went "blind" suddenly in huge portions of its eastern territories, there is no sure way to predict its response.
Second, and perhaps more important, is Russia's realization that there is now one less advantage it holds over China. When the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991, Russia inherited a huge arsenal of state-of-the-art weaponry and manufacturing capabilities, practically on par with the United States. At the time, China had only begun its crash program to upgrade its military, which was still armed according to 1960s and 1970s standards. Since that time, the overall state of the Russian military has eroded, notwithstanding some of its weapon development programs. Its best creations are not fielded in proper quantities in its military services. Such key assets as the Su-37, the MiG Multirole Front-Line Fighter, Ka-50, Ka-52 and Mi-28 helicopters, T-90 battle tanks, as well as armored vehicles, on board electronics and computer systems are fielded in very small quantities with few select services, or still exist as manufacture-ready prototypes that need to be put in production.
Notwithstanding Russia's robust global weapons trade, much of what it sells dates to the late 1980s, just before the end of the Cold War. Its latest developments that can match the best of the West still await proper funding and oversight. China's military is still behind Russia's in many respects, but it is catching up. One area where Russia has been able to maintain a lead over China has been in its ballistic forces. Now, with China's recent test, the gap has narrowed even further. Beijing has joined an elite, high-tech club consisting only of the United States and Russia.
Furthermore, while Russia is happy to sell military hardware to China, there is a clear line that Moscow will not cross with its neighbor. Moscow's military leadership stated on a number of occasions that Russia will not supply its latest high-tech weapons to China for security reasons, even if the price is right. There is a growing level of discomfort in Moscow with China's rapid ascent. Now, China can potentially threaten one Russian asset that still gives it enormous strength and confidence -- its space-based assets.
Despite the recent improvement in relations between Russia and China, the Kremlin is getting both apprehensive and uncomfortable with its growing role as a staple supplier to China's growing economic miracle. Ballistic and space-based technology was, until this week, one area where Russia still felt like a superpower when compared to China. That crucial advantage has now been eroded significantly.
It is prudent to watch Moscow's political and military reaction to China's test since Beijing's actions have narrowed an ever-closing gap between the two neighbors, raising new questions about the future and progress of Sino-Russian relations. The time when China can overtake Russia militarily is approaching. It has already done so economically, and is steadily gaining on Russia politically with its powerful diplomatic drive buttressed with trade incentives. How Russia will react to China's continued drive for high-tech military dominance will have a powerful and lasting effect on the future of international relations.
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This was, however based on an early report from someone else. Like I said, it looks like the Chinese (MSNBC article) shot it directly in the path of the orbital motion of the vehicle as it was approaching it's descending node. That is where it will traverse to the southern hemisphere. Still in-plane, but from a more difficult profile than what was propagated in another article. But does it really matter? All I know is there are many people who use LEO constellations for their satellites. Most are commercial users. I don't think this test was very constructive from that point of view. China proved without a doubt that they can hit a satellite in it's orbit. But it's still correct to point out that it's not so difficult to do it. It has been noted that if you can put a satellite in orbit, you have the potential to knock it out. China went from "potentially capable" to "capable" with this test.