In that case, why did the Americans decide to release the Uighers they rounded up in training camps in Afghanistan? They were only released because it was established that they were not a threat to American interests, not because they were not terrorists.
I also think it is unwise to brand all muslim terror groups with the same brush. They might share a very similar ideology, but they have vastly different motivations and interests.
Some terrorists would only be interested in hitting American/NATO targets, while others only want to kill Russians, and others still just want to kill Chinese. These people might sometimes work together or help each other out, but they will only be doing so to further their own interests, and will not sacrifice their own cause and beliefs to help out a 'brother' from another movement.
You're right, there is a lot of nuances among these groups. They are affiliated, they share the same ideology, they most likely train together, but they have different priorities. However, I would argue that the level to which these groups are entangled are such that it is impractical, if not impossible, to discriminate between them on the basis of their objectives. That means if China cracks down on the ETIM, it will inevitably piss off Al-Qaeda as well.
Well, it is clear that if they are getting local support, it is of a completely different nature to what the anti-American groups are getting.
It is unfair to compare China to America because of simple geography. It is about as easy for these people to get into China as it is for them to get into Afghanistan, but far more difficult to get to CONUS. Look at the kind of weapons and co-ordination used in Afghanistan compared to China.
So either Chinese boarder security is freaking amazing and nothing is getting through, or the anti-China lot are not getting any of the shinny toys from the locals. The few incidents where firearms have been smuggled into XinJiang, we only hear of it because of successful PAP raids before these weapons could be used.
In all the years that the ETIM have been operating, I do not remember a single case where firearms or military grade explosives have been used.
This with the PAP raids makes me suspect that when these anti-Chinese groups does get their hands on some serious hardware, somebody has always tipped the Chinese off, and so the PAP were there waiting to greet them when they arrived in China every time.
I think you are underestimating just how valuable the genuine goodwill of Pakistanis towards China is to China's national security. Loyalty like that is not something money can ever buy, just ask the Americans.
The Taliban is able to carry out relatively sophisticated attacks because:
1- They maintain a strong power base in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border regions.
2- The Afghanistan government is corrupt and ineffectual
3- There is plenty of local Afghanistan resentment against US occupation, allowing the Taliban to draw many recruits.
The Taliban have their resources focused against the Americans, they are certainly not going to channel weapons to the ETIM for a fight on the Chinese front. Chinese border security is also far more effective than that of Afghanistan. In fact, I dare say that it *is* the case that Chinese border security is so "freaking amazing" that nothing is getting through. Of course this is combined with "intelligence" reports. The advantage that Chinese enjoy in this regard is that they *ARE*, to a certain extent, the natives of the area.
I don't disagree that the good will of the Pakistanis is invaluable, but I am pointing out that this good will does not exist everywhere in Pakistan, and it is not unconditional.
I have always maintained that there is a military solution to any problem. But the things you would need to do to win is simply unacceptable in this day and age.
The Mongols would slaughter entire cities if they offered resistance. That is every last man, woman and child. Who in their right mind would even consider that today?
I have a different view on this. You don't have to slaughter everyone, you just have to make it painful enough that it's not worth the cost of mounting attacks against you. The key here is "painful ENOUGH".
The problem with the US is that they stay in the Middle East trying to play kingmakers. That means they keep building resentment with their policy toward Israel and their support of various unpopular rulers. Although they do inflict pain, the fact that they keep breeding resentment in the area means more discontented locals feel that it's worth braving that pain to fight the US.
On the other hand, if China conducted American-style drone strikes on suspected ETIM bases, but did so with the knowledge and approval of the Pakistani government, and did not push Pakistan on anything else, I dare say the result would be far different from what the US is currently experiencing.
I should clarify that the last paragraph is just a thought experiment. Drone strikes are not the best way of rooting out terrorists, as they are by nature imprecise. They may kill the big terrorist kahuna, but they also kill his wives, sisters, cousins, children, and neighbors in the process. The far better way would be to send in strike teams.
