Points on the Chinese question. From simple to complex:
The fact is that China is experiencing an exponential increase in cases of Covid-19, something new for that population and something very related to the complete relaxation of restrictions in the West. But not only that. The draconian measures that we have been observing for months are fundamental to understanding certain things. People are tired of confinement. This is normal. It is part, even if it is for the noblest of causes: human life. But something I've always noticed in China is a coordination problem between national and local government. For example, I have often read cases of mayors of cities in the interior forcing bank managers to grant millionaire loans when the order in the central government was monetary tightening. In China, the mayor of a city is not a building manager. He is manager of the local development process and his performance is what guarantees internal advancement. It is clear that there is a policy of slow, gradual and safe increase in the relaxation of restrictions while local governments are doubling down on showing that their province has no cases of Covid. This is a political time bomb of great magnitude that idiotic simplifications like dictatorship x democracy explain absolutely nothing. The question is to know what are the limits of centralization and decentralization.
On the other hand, there is an ongoing dispute. The party was pressured to weaken Xi, but it strengthened him. This did not please the global powers, but it still infuriates internal sectors defeated in the middle of the dispute - some of which are mafiosi -, who will use what they have at hand and the attention to the political protagonism of billionaires so that these protests descend into a counterrevolutionary rebellion like the one in 1989. Xi Jinping will have to take short-term measures on this, which will mainly affect the economy. But in the medium and long term, the fight is political and on a large scale.
By the way, let's not be naïve, there is a clear indication of hybrid warfare, Xi warned about color revolutions at this year's SCO Summit:
The fact is that China is experiencing an exponential increase in cases of Covid-19, something new for that population and something very related to the complete relaxation of restrictions in the West. But not only that. The draconian measures that we have been observing for months are fundamental to understanding certain things. People are tired of confinement. This is normal. It is part, even if it is for the noblest of causes: human life. But something I've always noticed in China is a coordination problem between national and local government. For example, I have often read cases of mayors of cities in the interior forcing bank managers to grant millionaire loans when the order in the central government was monetary tightening. In China, the mayor of a city is not a building manager. He is manager of the local development process and his performance is what guarantees internal advancement. It is clear that there is a policy of slow, gradual and safe increase in the relaxation of restrictions while local governments are doubling down on showing that their province has no cases of Covid. This is a political time bomb of great magnitude that idiotic simplifications like dictatorship x democracy explain absolutely nothing. The question is to know what are the limits of centralization and decentralization.
On the other hand, there is an ongoing dispute. The party was pressured to weaken Xi, but it strengthened him. This did not please the global powers, but it still infuriates internal sectors defeated in the middle of the dispute - some of which are mafiosi -, who will use what they have at hand and the attention to the political protagonism of billionaires so that these protests descend into a counterrevolutionary rebellion like the one in 1989. Xi Jinping will have to take short-term measures on this, which will mainly affect the economy. But in the medium and long term, the fight is political and on a large scale.
By the way, let's not be naïve, there is a clear indication of hybrid warfare, Xi warned about color revolutions at this year's SCO Summit:
