China Navy Power

fishhead

Banned Idiot
Either way, IMHO, to complete it by 2010 means it whatever he is talking about almost certainly has to be the Varyag. No other major ship of this size that would be a carrier that could be completed by 2010 exists at this time to my knowledge.

But the building has already started, certain Chinese sources said some time ago.

Report it or not, it's US military intelligence decision.
 

bd popeye

The Last Jedi
VIP Professional
But the building has already started, certain Chinese sources said some time ago.

Report it or not, it's US military intelligence decision.

Fishhead, the US has been building CVs,LPH,LHD & LHA's since the 1930s. Today it takes about 7 yerars from the time the steel is cut to build a CVN. About 5 for an LHA/LHD. To my knowledge the PRC has never built a warship of this size. Constructing large tankers and container ships is not the same as constructing a warship.

Personally I think that someday the PLAN will have it's own CV design. But not by 2010. If someone could produce some photographic proof of such a PLAN CV. Then we would really have something to discuss.

I agree with Jeff that the Varyag will be the first PLAN aircraft carrier.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
But the building has already started, certain Chinese sources said some time ago.

Report it or not, it's US military intelligence decision.
If it did, then with satellites and with intelligence, by this time the vessel would have been seen and the tremendous amount of logistical needs to support its building would have been noticed.

It's like I said earlier, unless they have figured out a way to hide a project that big, and keep everyone involved quiet about it, then it would already be seen and we would be looking at pictures of it.

Maybe they have found a way to hide all of that from satellites and from the intelligence networks of the world...but I doubt it. There are only so many yards capable of building a vessel that size and you can bet that they are all being monitored constantly...along with anyplace else that might be able to handle it where it would be covered...such a large building itself near the waterways, would be a dead give away itself and then they would concentrate on it to see what type of material was coming into the project.

My money is still on the Varyag...and has been for some time, long before it was very popular.
 

optionsss

Junior Member
The 'general' did not explicit say the aircraft carrier will be builded by 2010.
Because he used "研制" so I think in this case he meant the project R&D would be finished by 2010.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
The 'general' did not explicit say the aircraft carrier will be builded by 2010.
Because he used "研制" so I think in this case he meant the project R&D would be finished by 2010.
Interesting...if that is the case, then the PLAN may start building their first indigenous carrier in the 2010 time frame, which I would also expect. I still believe the Varyag will be launched and made operational in the 2009-2010 time frame or there abouts.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Interesting...if that is the case, then the PLAN may start building their first indigenous carrier in the 2010 time frame, which I would also expect. I still believe the Varyag will be launched and made operational in the 2009-2010 time frame or there abouts.

Actually, I think that sounds the most reasonable too. There is only a few shipyards in China capable of building ships for PLAN. Out of those, only JN, HD and Dalian can build something as large as a carrier. Imo, JN's new Changxin location will probably get the contract, since it will be the largest shipyard in the world when it's finished.
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From this, it looks like HD shipyard will relocate to Changxin too (something I didn't realize before). If you are looking for an indigenous carrier, you just need to keep your eyes on this shipyard.

One thing they mentionned on Chinese forums was whether or not China has the capability to produce the materials needed for the carrier. I don't know much about this. Gerry can explain the amount of pounding that a carrier takes on a daily basis.
 

fishhead

Banned Idiot
The 'general' did not explicit say the aircraft carrier will be builded by 2010.
Because he used "研制" so I think in this case he meant the project R&D would be finished by 2010.

If you don't build a real one, then hardly I call it R&D completed.

Varyag is never the option of a real operational A/C, just a trainer.

One thing they mentionned on Chinese forums was whether or not China has the capability to produce the materials needed for the carrier. I don't know much about this. Gerry can explain the amount of pounding that a carrier takes on a daily basis.

The super size steel plate used for building A/C is produced by BaoSteel. It's reported 2 years ago already.
 
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adeptitus

Captain
VIP Professional
One thing they mentionned on Chinese forums was whether or not China has the capability to produce the materials needed for the carrier. I don't know much about this. Gerry can explain the amount of pounding that a carrier takes on a daily basis.

Hi Tphuang,

Did the forums mention any specifics on the materials? I recall India was going to import warship grade steel from Russia for its carrier program, but is looking into domestic options. There's also the propulsion system.
 

fishhead

Banned Idiot
If it did, then with satellites and with intelligence, by this time the vessel would have been seen and the tremendous amount of logistical needs to support its building would have been noticed.

It's like I said earlier, unless they have figured out a way to hide a project that big, and keep everyone involved quiet about it, then it would already be seen and we would be looking at pictures of it.

I never mean they hide it. The problem is, even US military knows, they won't let you know. US is hyper-secret for anything of China today as well. So I stopped using this logic long ago since we can't be for sure its construction date, maybe 3 years into it already.

For example:

Chinese ASAT - they tell you how many failures only after China blew out one sat, then credit of it?

Yuan class sub, they tell you they knew it only after somebody posted a photo on Chinese internet, ??????

Type 96 tank, it jumped into parade from blue before anybody tell you its existence.

........
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
I never mean they hide it. The problem is, even US military knows, they won't let you know. US is hyper-secret for anything of China today as well. So I stopped using this logic long ago since we can't be for sure its construction date, maybe 3 years into it already.

For example:

Chinese ASAT - they tell you how many failures only after China blew out one sat, then credit of it?

Yuan class sub, they tell you they knew it only after somebody posted a photo on Chinese internet, ??????

Type 96 tank, it jumped into parade from blue before anybody tell you its existence.

........
For the US intelligence services this may well be so...but there are too many commerical options and too many eyes looking outside of intelligence/military. That is why the Yaun, Type 96, etc. were found out.

There are only so many places the carrier could be built...and I believe when it is, that we will know about it as soon as the flight deck starts becoming obvious on any part. Look at the Type 071...we know and knew all about it as it was being built.

The same will be true of an indigenous PLAN carrier IMHO. I think tphuang hit it right in his post above. Once it starts going together, unless it is in a huge covered building big enough to hide a carrier...which building itself would be noticed...IMHO it is going to be almost impossible to hide.
 
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