China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[tamsen_ikard]

Right, let me just call my CMC friend real quick and see if he can get you a live tour.

There are plenty of nuclear experts who analyze nuclear policy, nuclear force composition and other aspects for a living. If China implements such a policy. They will clearly know about it and release their finding. There are annual report of such things.

I suggest you one such expert Podcast I listened to recently in Sinica.

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Based on several such expert reports, my understanding is that China is exploring nuclear doctrine changes including launch on warning, and also abandoning no first use, but they have not changed their doctrine yet.

 

[Wrought]

There are plenty of nuclear experts who analyze nuclear policy, nuclear force composition and other aspects for a living. If China implements such a policy. They will clearly know about it and release their finding. There are annual report of such things.

I suggest you one such expert Podcast I listened to recently in Sinica.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Based on several such expert reports, my understanding is that China is exploring nuclear doctrine changes including launch on warning, and also abandoning no first use, but they have not changed their doctrine yet.

I'm well aware. Those are the same folks who are explicitly telling us that a shift to launch-on-warning is underway and has been for years now. Which you seem determined to ignore, and which is why I put such little confidence in you coming back to reality.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

I'm well aware. Those are the same folks who are explicitly telling us that a shift to launch-on-warning is underway and has been for years now. Which you seem determined to ignore, and which is why I put such little confidence in you coming back to reality.

Happy to be proven wrong when that happens. In my opinion, China abandoning no-first-use is more likely than Launch on Warning. But lets see how it changes in the next few years.

 

[Wrought]

Happy to be proven wrong when that happens. In my opinion, China abandoning no-first-use is more likely than Launch on Warning. But lets see how it changes in the next few years.

Here's the exact same guy you cited:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1260412008853377025

 

[Jason_]

The only reason to listen to Western “experts” on Chinese nuclear capability is to laugh at their stupidity and ignorance. They are all clowns.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Here's the exact same guy you cited:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1260412008853377025

Your tweet is from 2020, I gave you a whole interview discussing China's nuclear doctrine from him from 2025.

According to him, China is building the silos just to show off to US that it can build a lot of nukes. Its about preventing US to become desperate and launch a limited nuclear use in a battlefield scenario. According to him, its about showing US that it cannot win a nuclear war just because they have more nukes.

 

[Wrought]

View attachment 159226

Your tweet is from 2020, I gave you a whole interview discussing China's nuclear doctrine from him from 2025.

According to him, China is building the silos just to show off to US that it can build a lot of nukes. Its about preventing US to become desperate and launch a limited nuclear use in a battlefield scenario. According to him, its about showing US that it cannot win a nuclear war just because they have more nukes.

Hold on, why are you suddenly changing the subject now? We were just talking about launch-on-warning and you were denying it flat-out. There is nothing about silos or retaliation which contradicts launch-on-warning. Quite the contrary, they synergize very well.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Why are you suddenly changing the subject now? We were just talking about launch-on-warning. There is nothinig about silos or retaliation which contradicts launch-on-warning.

I already said regarding launch on warning what I wanted to say, which is we will see if it happens. Right now its not happening.

I am coming back to the whole start of this debate, which was about the purpose China's mass silo buildup.

 

[Wrought]

I already said regarding launch on warning what I wanted to say, which is we will see if it happens. Right now its not happening.

I am coming back to the whole start of this debate, which was about the purpose China's mass silo buildup.

So you are just going to ignore what your own expert quoted from a PLARF colonel? Inconvenient truths, eh? Whatever happened to this?

Happy to be proven wrong when that happens.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

So you are just going to ignore what your own expert quoted from a PLARF colonel? Inconvenient truths, eh? Whatever happened to this?

All speculation without any actual action. When the Nukes are mated with their ICBMs 24/7, we will have clear proof that China is on a Launch on warning posture. Pentagon does an annual report on China's nuclear force. We will see them reporting about it.