China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[vincent]

The first one is also official report but if i repost it, they will delete the source.

Archive the page with the Wayback Machine:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[tphuang]

interesting from listening to this shilao podcast today

you need to subscribe it to listen, but if you reach 44min mark.

They said that JL-3 has a hard spec for range. Needs to be in 5 digits so that JL-3 can reach North America from SCS. Longer spec than everyone else due to China's southern location. They'd even sacrifice warhead to achieve the range. So sounds like that's pretty conclusive to me.

 

[Totoro]

Who is "everyone else"? Does it refer to US Trident II missile, which is also a 5 digit range (km) missile?

Was there anything suggested about the dimensions of the missile itself? Whether its design leans heavily onto JL-2 or is it a completely new missile? One would assume that the missile has the same dimensions, given that the launch vehicle, Type 09IV remained unchanged. Was anything said about potential 09IV changes?

Also, what sources did Shilao offer to corroborate any claims about JL-3? How can one know if Shilao is trustworthy or not?

 

[escobar]

China nuclear expansion is running at an even faster pace than American intelligence officials anticipated two years ago. China’s nuclear complex is now the fastest growing in the world.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[gelgoog]

All the other SLBMs have five digit range. Including Trident II, M51, and yes even the Bulava. The reason why the Bulava is often claimed to have a shorter range than Trident II is that because that is the range with low altitude depressed trajectory. If you use a similar ballistic trajectory as Trident II it has similar range.

I think even the JL-2A should have such range. I mean just look at the range of DF-31AG. Its land based brother.

 

[Kalec]

China nuclear expansion is running at an even faster pace than American intelligence officials anticipated two years ago. China’s nuclear complex is now the fastest growing in the world.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

By far the most revealing detail by US official.

(China)’s nuclear expansion is running at an even faster pace than American intelligence officials anticipated two years ago, driven by President Xi Jinping’s determination to scrap the decades-long strategy of maintaining a “minimum deterrent” to reach or exceed the size of Washington’s and Moscow’s arsenals. China’s nuclear complex is now the fastest growing in the world.

It is not surprising as the 1,000 by 2030 is fundamentally wrong about Chinese nuclear expansion, have been saying this for quite long time. The current stockpile should be around 700 - 800 nukes and will easily surpass 1,000 before 2027.

The Biden strategy sharpens that focus to reflect the Pentagon’s estimates that China’s nuclear force would expand to 1,000 by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035, roughly the numbers that the United States and Russia now deploy. In fact, Beijing now appears ahead of that schedule, officials say, and has begun loading nuclear missiles into new silo fields that were spotted by commercial satellites three years ago.

Not sure what do they mean by "new silo fields" for being solid ICBM silo fields in the north or the liquid one in the south. Especially it has to be taken into account that US intelligence claimed China is loading silo with DF-31, it is so weird that I see no reason why they are still producing DF-31 series missiles.

 

[bebops]

Missile isn't hard to mass produced. once you give the green light, it can be massed produced quickly with automation 24/7.

 

[Kalec]

China will conduct a missile test for unknown purpose tomorrow.

It could be an ABM test against ICBM target or a hypersonics test. Hard to tell with the mega drop zone.



NOTAM data:

A2503/24 NOTAMN
Q) ZWUQ/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/
A) ZWUQ B) 2408221127 C) 2408221247
E) ALL ACFT ARE FORBIDDEN TO FLY INTO THE AREA BOUNDED BY:
N413928E0945459-N414552E0882551-N374419E0853745-N382145E0901131
F) GND G) UNL

A2512/24 NOTAMN
Q) ZLHW/QARLC/IV/NBO/E/000/999/
A) ZLHW B) 2408221127 C) 2408221258
E) FLW SEGMENT OF ATS RTE CLSD: 1.B330 :YABRAI VOR'YBL'-MORIT. 2.A596 ENGKOU VOR'DKO'- YABRAI VOR'YBL'.

A2513/24 NOTAMN
Q) ZLHW/QARLC/IV/NBO/E/000/999/
A) ZLHW B) 2408221127 C) 2408221237
E) FLW SEGMENT OF ATS RTE CLSD: 1.G470 : IBANO - BIKNO. 2.W191 : MOVBI - KARVI. 3.B215 : NUKTI - IBANO.

 

[Kalec]

30 minutes' work based on the chart from "China’s Civil Nuclear Sector: Plowshares to Swords?"

China has approximately 10.85 Million SWU by now, will increase to 13.65M once current expansion complete in next few years.
View attachment 117495
Bidding Source:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Time for an update about China's uranium factory. The Emeishan Uranium factory expands again in 2024, potentially due to heavy demand of naval reactor.

Now totaling at 16.8 - 19.8 million SWU/year after expansion. Even 1% of capacity is worth 740kg Weapon grade HEU.




Bidding source:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[gelgoog]

China has been massively expanding its nuclear power plant park. So they will need nuclear fuel for that.