China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[Temstar]

Going by the listing, 120 sounds like the lower end of what Topol's annual production is like, even going by Cold War terms. Of course, this is just ONE factory, and we don't know how many factories are producing ICBMs in China either.

If we believe what he says. I think he's pretty reliable but it would be good to track down the source he's quoting. The news should be pretty low key and unlikely to just straight up say "rocket casing for ICBM". For example Yankee once draw attention to this

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where one of the winning team was "large scale submerged launched solid fuel carrier rocket R&D team", hinting that this was the JL-2 team completing their development or achieving some big milestone:


If it's not pointed out such gems would be hard to find. We just need to figure out the key word for this piece of news.

 

[Kalec]

In particular he said in recent days there's been a news from a certain factory that produces ICBM casing where they said they are producing these casing at a rate of 8 per week.

I've been looking for news of that nature and haven't found it yet, it's probably described in some pretty vague terms. Anyone seen anything like this?

I posted it here last month in the previous thread and also DMed him privately, it was actually the metal component of the motor shell and probably they see my DM then decide publicize it in Chinese podcast. I mean he is not quite good at interpreting official news and probably don't even read them regularly from my experience with him, but he is still a good reference on aviation and basic rocket science.

I am going to quote myself here...

水压工序上大家通力合作，相互配合，经常通宵达旦，全面完成工厂各产品的水压、应变及爆破工作。在两名党员的带领下，水压组持续奋战创下某大型壳体一周产出8台的高产出量。

先锋队每位党员认真履行承诺，知难而进，在技术创新、加工工艺方法优化等方面多点突破，成功打通了生产瓶颈，解决了难题堵点。

在院某重点产品产能提升过程中，党员先锋队亮身份树旗帜，开启了“6+1”、“白+黑”生产模式，积极践行“四个敢于”的企业精神，用行动为周围群众做出表率，起到了良好带动作用。

在开展的“壳体一键式车加工”的攻关中，面对设备资源有限、壳体易变形等难题，先锋队员坚持创新引领，分析车加工技术难点，摸索加工变形规律，优化加工程序和切削参数，采用主程序和子程序调用循环结合方式，分两个层次安排加工程序，实现了产品一键启动加工，加工过程中无需进行测量，改变了以前必须边干边量、边量边干的工作模式，壳体产能较原来提高了4倍，产品质量更加稳定可靠

In a report from August 2022, the factory said that they made a record output of 8 large shells that week. They were working 7/24 to increase production capability and shell production rate has increased in four fold. Ofc it could be a lucky week and should not be taken as baseline estimation.

We assume that normal production rate is 4 shells per week. China has 250 working days/50 working weeks per year though they are likely working in three shifts with no weekends but we take the conservative estimation here. They could produce 200 shells in theory and each ICBM is made of three solid stages so around 60 ICBMs per year.

You are suggesting massive production of DF-5 series using storable liquid fuel?

The silo lid is from Ordos and the open silo is from Jilantai. Neither of them is relative to DF-5 series. But I do believe DF-5 has been or is going to use storable liquid fuel.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

I posted it here last month in the previous thread and also DMed him privately, it was actually the metal component of the motor shell and probably they see my DM then decide publicize it in Chinese podcast. I mean he is not quite good at interpreting official news and probably don't even read them regularly from my experience with him, but he is still a good reference on aviation and basic rocket science.

I am going to quote myself here...





In a report from August 2022, the factory said that they made a record output of 8 large shells that week. They were working 7/24 to increase production capability and shell production rate has increased in four fold. Ofc it could be a lucky week and should not be taken as baseline estimation.

We assume that normal production rate is 4 shells per week. China has 250 working days/50 working weeks per year though they are likely working in three shifts with no weekends but we take the conservative estimation here. They could produce 200 shells in theory and each ICBM is made of three solid stages so around 60 ICBMs per year.


The silo lid is from Ordos and the open silo is from Jilantai. Neither of them is relative to DF-5 series. But I do believe DF-5 has been or is going to use storable liquid fuel.

DF-5 uses the same standard fuel as LM-2, Sineva, Titan II, etc. N2O4 and dimethylhydrazine.

 

[MarKoz81]

I consider myself obliged to intervene:

To put it into perspective, just prior to 萌虎鲸 quoting the 8 casing a week figure they were discussing how many RT-2PM Topol were produced a year and 萌虎鲸 was saying "oh it was a lot, these superpowers when they set them mind to it they can produce a scary around of missile a year. Let me go look up the figures". Then as he started typing on keyboard he says "Oh by the way just so you know China is currently pumping out missiles at that sort of rate..." and then he quotes that 8 casing a week figure.

After that bit about China, he returns to the previous subject with the figures for Topol put into service:
1985 - 99
1986 - 99
1987 - 149
1988 - 158
1989 - 190
1990 - 288

120 missiles a year is certain in that range, from one factory no less. He also said that once the Minuteman III silo fields were complete US was able to fill them all within 1-2 years, and that indeed is what China is also doing.

Those figures are for total quantity of missiles in active service but they are also erroneous for early dates. The confirmed numbers of Topol in service in 1991 is 288 missiles as per START I. The other numbers likely refer to total number of missiles in missile brigades certified as operational with new type of missile. The figure "99" is almost definitely incorrect for 1985 and 1986 although the number could match another date as it fits the standard Soviet structure of 18 or 27 launchers per brigade (2x9 or 3x9).

RT-2PM Topol development began in 1977 and the missile formally entered service in 1985 after tests in the same year which means that 288 missiles in service plus additional test missiles have been produced in approximately seven to eight years. Total number of Topols deployed is 360 by 1996. That is 40 missiles per year on average until 1991 and 20 missiles per year on average after 1991.

In 1997 Topol was replaced by Topol-M or RT-2PM2. 78 missiles were produced until 2009.
In 2010 Topol-M was replaced by RT-24 Yars. 152 missiles were produced as of 2022.

American and Russian nuclear forces are bound by treaties which means that the information is publicly available and trustworthy. Data on Soviet missile production is also not hard to deduce from available historical records. Maintain standards.

 

[Kalec]

Another interesting find during digging into a journal published in 2019, possibly PBV technology related.

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Key takeway:

1. CASC developed a 10kN upper stage engine a.k.a Post boost vehicle in 2018 with a chamber pressure 4MPa.
2. It has already been tested in a weapon system in September 2018.
3. Very likely to be designed for an ICBM PBV.

Longer thought:

The journal also stated that there were two engines using carbon fiber for their nozzles in China as of 2019. The first one is a 2.4kN one, conducted its first flight in 2013. I suspect this could be the DF-41 test in Dec 2013. The second one was YZ-3, upper stage for Long March 2D, a 5kN one. And it was said that they have already developed a 10kN upper stage engine in 2006 but it never came into production.

For comparison:

Engine	RS-14	RS-34	RD-866	2013 Engine	2018 Engine
Thrust	1.39 kN	11.70 kN	5.20 kN + 16 x 116 N	2.4kN	10kN
Missile	Minuteman	Peacekeeper	RT-23	Likely to be DF-41	Unknown

Longer rough translation:

The National University of Defense Technology has developed C/SiC composite nozzle extensions for 750 N, 2,000 N, and 10 kN liquid rocket motors. From July 2017 to June 2018, in less than a year, the National University of Defense Technology developed a nozzle extension with a large area ratio and conducted four high-altitude simulated thermal test runs and three full-system thermal test runs for the integral composite body, and provided power for the successful flight of a weapon system in September 2018. The engine, which is difficult to develop, has a combustion chamber pressure of 4 MPa and a vacuum thrust of 10 kN, and achieves a welded connection between composite materials and metal.

Recently, the National University of Defense Technology has developed a special pseudo-3D forming technology, which effectively solves the problems of difficult 3D braiding forming of composite nozzle extensions, low reliability of 1D winding forming, and difficult processing of 3D needling forming. The technology not only realizes the net forming of the inner and outer surface of the composite nozzle, but also controls the minimum wall thickness of the product to about 1.0 mm, which is 1/2 of the wall thickness of the RL10B-2 engine C/C composite nozzle extension, and the weight reduction effect of the nozzle extension is more outstanding.

 

[Blitzo]

Another interesting find during digging into a journal published in 2019, possibly PBV technology related.

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Key takeway:

1. CASC developed a 10kN upper stage engine a.k.a Post boost vehicle in 2018 with a chamber pressure 4MPa.
2. It has already been tested in a weapon system in September 2018.
3. Very likely to be designed for an ICBM PBV.

Longer thought:

The journal also stated that there were two engines using carbon fiber for their nozzles in China as of 2019. The first one is a 2.4kN one, conducted its first flight in 2013. I suspect this could be the DF-41 test in Dec 2013. The second one was YZ-3, upper stage for Long March 2D, a 5kN one. And it was said that they have already developed a 10kN upper stage engine in 2006 but it never came into production.

For comparison:

Engine	RS-14	RS-34	RD-866	2013 Engine	2018 Engine
Thrust	1.39 kN	11.70 kN	5.20 kN + 16 x 116 N	2.4kN	10kN
Missile	Minuteman	Peacekeeper	RT-23	Likely to be DF-41	Unknown

Longer rough translation:



View attachment 109273
View attachment 109274

If there was a test on a weapons system in 2018, I imagine surely it wouldn't be on the final missile that it is designed for.
I have a feeling we would've heard some hints of such a test and also heard of the advancement of the various elements of the missile would have been apparent and noted by that time.

I wonder if it was tested on a modified existing missile or rocket instead.
On the other hand, if the Sept 2018 test was a full stack test of the product we are thinking about, then I admit they're a but further ahead on that front than I expected.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Cross-posted from the Breaking & World News Thread.

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"How dare China with 4 times the population of ours and a larger PPP economy than ours have more than 250 nukes??!!"

 

[Kalec]

On the other hand, if the Sept 2018 test was a full stack test of the product we are thinking about, then I admit they're a but further ahead on that front than I expected.

If this suspected PBV is indeed designed for an ICBM, there is no way that new gen ICBM is ready by 2018.

Here is the timeline just in case anyone missing anything:

1. The first known new-gen solid engine was tested at the end of 2018.

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2018年11月15日，我院应用新一代推进剂的某新型发动机首台地面热试车圆满成功，标志着我国新一代发动机技术取得全面突破，实现了中国航天固体动力技术的又一跨越，具有里程碑意义。

Rough translation:

On November 15, 2018, the first ground hot test run of a new engine with a new generation of propellant in our institute was successfully completed, marking a comprehensive breakthrough in China's new generation engine technology and achieving another leap in China's aerospace solid engine technology with milestone significance.

2. Former leader laid out prospective journal in 2021.

固体火箭发动机需要实现高能高性能,通过创新固体火箭发动机设计理念、持续研究新型高能推进剂和先进的功能材料、不断提升工艺和制造水平,固体火箭发动机能量水平和质量比分别实现305～310 s、0.95,满足战略领域对固体火箭发动机的需求。

Mass ratio = 0.95, vacuum Isp 305s - 310s

It is very impressive and almost too good to be true.

3. Five strategic solid motors still under development in 2022.

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41所五型战略型号攻关党员突击队
43所轻量化大尺寸薄壁双极延伸锥研制团队
And lightweight large-size thin two-stage extendible cone development team

My guess is 3 solid motors for new-gen ICBM and 2 motors for new-gen SLBM and the development seemed to be in the final stage as of 2022.

4. Followed up interview on the development team

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”干惊天动地事，做隐姓埋名人“是突击队队员常挂在嘴边的话，为国防安全铸造倚天长剑
”Make world shaking stuff, be a nobody for fame" is their motto. Making long sword for national defense.
未来几年，突击队承担的多个重点型号将进入密集的“生产+试验”研制阶段
In the next few years, (such) motors will enter an intensive "production + test" development phase.
目前，突击队负责的所有型号研制都在按计划有条不紊地进行中，站在新的历史起点,..., 用笑傲苍穹的豪情，托举起捍卫民族尊严和国家安宁的倚天长剑
At present, all motors are in orderly progress according to plan, standing at a new historical starting point, ... , with the pride of the sky, to hold up the long sword to defend national dignity and national security.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

I keep hearing about how experts doubt China's capacity to produce fissile material. They have one of the largest fleet of nuclear reactors in the world. Shouldn't they also have a huge capacity to produce fissile material? Nuclear reactors themselves should also product plutonium as by product of reaction, if I am correct.

What is China's capacity to produce fissile material now?

 

[Michaelsinodef]

I keep hearing about how experts doubt China's capacity to produce fissile material. They have one of the largest fleet of nuclear reactors in the world. Shouldn't they also have a huge capacity to produce fissile material? Nuclear reactors themselves should also product plutonium as by product of reaction, if I am correct.

What is China's capacity to produce fissile material now?

Spend some time going through the pages in this thread, and maybe even in the prior thread.