Based on the material you provided, I think they're under by a considerable margin.
China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
Their report is kinda missing the forest for tree.
For example they are emphasizing the dual-use capability of DF-26 and giving them 54 nuclear warheads but it is very likely to be much more exaggerating than reality. Possibly because arm control nerdies are naturally discouraging all sort of dual use IRBM and hyping its threat.
Meanwhile they still believe that each brigade only operates around 6 launchers/missiles.
In their report, they count 12 DF-31 brigades and 3 DF-41 brigade as well as 90 DF-31 series missiles and 28 DF-41 missiles. Te be honest here that it is just illogical, how it is possible that DF-41 brigade is operating with more ICBM launchers than DF-31 brigades?
My estimation:
| Missile | No. of brigade | No. of missile | Nuclear warheads |
| DF-21A | 0 | Retired | 0 |
| DF-26 | 5 or 6 | 240/20 nuclear capable | 20 |
| DF-5A | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| DF-5B | 2 | 12 | 48 |
| DF-31 series | 9 | 108 | 108 |
| DF-41 series | 7 | 84 | 252 |
| JL-2 series | 6 SSBNs | 72 | 72 |
| H-6N | N/A | 10-20 | 10-20 |
| Total | N/A | 312 | 526 |
2030 Prospect:
| Missile | No. of brigade | No. of missile | Nuclear warheads |
| DF-26 | 5 or 6 | 240/20 nuclear capable | 20 |
| DF-5B | 2 | 12 | 48 |
| DF-5C | 3 | 36 | 216 |
| DF-31 series | 3 | 54 | 54 |
| DF-41 | 14 | 168 | 500 |
| JL-2/JL-3 series | 8 SSBNs | 96 | 96 |
| Silo ICBM (DF-41) | 3 | 320 | 960 |
| H-20 | N/A | 20 | 20 |
| Total | N/A | 708/688 if not counting DF-26 | 1914 |
Actually there is a lot of wiggle room on 2030 Prospect, for instance there could be a heavy solid ICBM to bring another 960 warheads into arsenal and enable MIRV capability on SLBM by reducing yield of each warheads.
Not too bad of a conservative estimate for delivery system capacity with reasonable MIRV assumptions. Now when this can be realized just depends on production rate of the actual warheads (fissile material + assembly) and rockets. I'm decently bullish on both factors, I think this is probably doable by 2028 ish, maybe even earlier. That'd be much faster than US estimates, I'm not sure why they still don't want to admit that and instead say "1500 by 2035".
7 DF41 may not be fully operational today while I agree with your other estimates
antiterror13
Brigadier
so silo DF-41 ICBM brigade is about 107 missile each ?
Why would China reduce the number DF-31 series, DF-31B/C is still potent and modern to deal with regional countries, including India and Australia
To my count, 641, 644, 645, 651, 652, 664 is very likely to be DF-41 brigade and 647 is a potential candidate. You are right that they might not be fully operational but the estimation won't change that much in overall warheads count.
The main indicator is the 23m garage to house the 21m DF-41.
For example, 652 brigade garrison here.
![_5G6}KGD0BKY57_~]2CTBJP.png](https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/data/attachments/102/102761-04fac5bc7274c8974453576abdc0beec.jpg "_5G6}KGD0BKY57_~]2CTBJP.png")
Yumen 120 silos, Hami 110 silos, Ordos 90 silos.
DF-26/27 could deal with regional nuclear demand and it doesn't count in arm control meanwhile DF-31 definitely will be counted as launcher/missile in arm control and not very potent on MIRV and survivability.
I am not sure of the ICBMs deployed in those new silos will be DF-41s. The USDoD seems to indicate that the silo-based ICBMs would be DF-31 series instead of DF-41.
According to the discussion on Weibo, the survey report is basically of no reference value.
This is just a simple statistics of the number of missiles appearing at the military parade.
They(or "he",this should be a clerical error) don't even want the number of vehicles divisible by 12
It is funny that DOD went from "they never deploy more than 50 DF-31 over two decades." to "Massive DF-31 silo so it can't reach Florida."
Also the silo diameter is around 4.3 to 4.5 meters, enough room for a variety of ICBM in theory.
Silo lid is around 4.5m if the width of truck is 2.5m based on recent satellite image.
For comparison, MM silo has a diameter of 3.7m and enough for a 2.34m Peacekeeper when cold launched. Generally a smaller silo is cheaper and more blast-resist than a larger silo, so I personally believe PLARF will load heavy ICBM into them instead of 2m-class DF-41, which a 4.3m silo is an overkill for ICBM in its size.
