China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[Temstar]

I'm half way through the

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, a

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specializing in space program and strategic weapon.
At 1:57:45, while discussing peak cold war ICBM production rate 萌虎鲸 makes a big statement that made me sit up. He says currently China is building ICBM at a similar speed to cold war peak. In particular he said in recent days there's been a news from a certain factory that produces ICBM casing where they said they are producing these casing at a rate of 8 per week.

I've been looking for news of that nature and haven't found it yet, it's probably described in some pretty vague terms. Anyone seen anything like this?

 

[Blitzo]

You are suggesting massive production of DF-5 series using storable liquid fuel?

Re read his post again and note which type of missile he describes would be most consistent with his hypothesis.

Hint: there is a heavy ICBM in his post which is not liquid fuelled.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

I'm half way through the

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, a

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specializing in space program and strategic weapon.
At 1:57:45, while discussing peak cold war ICBM production rate 萌虎鲸 makes a big statement that made me sit up. He says currently China is building ICBM at a similar speed to cold war peak. In particular he said in recent days there's been a news from a certain factory that produces ICBM casing where they said they are producing these casing at a rate of 8 per week.

I've been looking for news of that nature and haven't found it yet, it's probably described in some pretty vague terms. Anyone seen anything like this?

There are 52 weeks in a year. Assuming only 45 weeks of working (and 7 weeks-worth of holiday), 45 weeks x 8 casings = 360 casings per year.

How many casings does each DF-31A/AG, DF-41 and DF-5 require?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

There are 52 weeks in a year. Assuming only 45 weeks of working (and 7 weeks-worth of holiday), 45 weeks x 8 casings = 360 casings per year.

How many casings does each DF-31A/AG, DF-41 and DF-5 require?

I believe 1 casings = 1 stage more or less. So maybe ~120 missiles per year. DF-5 is liquid fueled so it doesn't use casings, it uses fuel tanks, and its production rate is similar to LM-2.

 

[Temstar]

To put it into perspective, just prior to 萌虎鲸 quoting the 8 casing a week figure they were discussing how many RT-2PM Topol were produced a year and 萌虎鲸 was saying "oh it was a lot, these superpowers when they set them mind to it they can produce a scary around of missile a year. Let me go look up the figures". Then as he started typing on keyboard he says "Oh by the way just so you know China is currently pumping out missiles at that sort of rate..." and then he quotes that 8 casing a week figure.

After that bit about China, he returns to the previous subject with the figures for Topol put into service:
1985 - 99
1986 - 99
1987 - 149
1988 - 158
1989 - 190
1990 - 288

120 missiles a year is certain in that range, from one factory no less. He also said that once the Minuteman III silo fields were complete US was able to fill them all within 1-2 years, and that indeed is what China is also doing.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

After that bit about China, he returns to the previous subject with the figures for Topol put into service:
1985 - 99
1986 - 99
1987 - 149
1988 - 158
1989 - 190
1990 - 288

Is this cumulative or per year?

120 missiles a year is certain in that range, from one factory no less. He also said that once the Minuteman III silo fields were complete US was able to fill them all within 1-2 years, and that indeed is what China is also doing.

How many ICBM factories does China have? Even if the rest of the factories only has one-quarter (2 per week) to half (4 per week) the production rates.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Why is China building its Silos so close to each other in the Silo fields. If they were further apart like US, they would be less vulnerable by being far enough apart that US would have to fire a lot of nukes to take all out.

 

[Temstar]

Is this cumulative or per year?

Per year

 

[Blitzo]

Why is China building its Silos so close to each other in the Silo fields. If they were further apart like US, they would be less vulnerable by being far enough apart that US would have to fire a lot of nukes to take all out.

The silos are clustered in locality, but appear sufficiently far away from each other in terms of silos to not suffer from fratricide.

More importantly, these silos and China's overall nuclear posture should be assisted by extensive early warning and launch on warning capability meaning that if they are attacked by another nation's nukes, by the time they land the PLARF should have already launched their own ICBMs.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Per year

120 missiles a year is certain in that range, from one factory no less. He also said that once the Minuteman III silo fields were complete US was able to fill them all within 1-2 years, and that indeed is what China is also doing.

Going by the listing, 120 sounds like the lower end of what Topol's annual production is like, even going by Cold War terms. Of course, this is just ONE factory, and we don't know how many factories are producing ICBMs in China either.