Is there nobody else here subbed on youtube? The episodes are always so long I don't have nearly enough time to watch all of them so I usually just skip through, sure I'm missing a lot. I think it's well worth a sub and they go over a lot not overlapping with chahuahui/bilibili
China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
They did confirm also that it is the longest ranged SLBM out there due to the hard requirement of reaching East Coast.
They also said the obvious point that it won't have the nuclear warhead carrying capabilities of other SLBMs due to the size constraints. They didn't say if it can carry multiple warheads.
Given that the JL-3 is to be launched from the 094/A SSBNs (which means the JL-3 designers must contend with the present limitations on those boats) - I believe it would be reasonable to expect the JL-4 (which is meant to be launched from the next-generation 096 SSBNs) to address the warhead payload-range issues that are plaguing its predecessors.
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yes, I think that's reasonable. Just getting the range from 8000km to 12000km (or whatever it is) is already quite an accomplishment. Required significant weight/volume reduction elsewhere and better propellent & motor. All that new carbon fiber and quartz fiber are quite the game changer.
The underground shelters and infrastructure is real, i've seen it first hand across the country in provincial capitals and other major cities, especially multi-level underground parking garages and metro systems sometimes have heavy blast doors etc. In theory ongoing construction could create a connected system of these shelters between regions that are already drawing economically closer such as the Jin Jing Ji and the GBA. The tunnel depth might leave something to be desired in certain cities though, but deep parking garages and major hub metro stations should have tunnel depth in excess of 25m.
The issue is that capacity is probably miniscule compared to the urban populations...
sorry if this is off-topic just wanted to chime in with my first hand experience.
The JL-3 (巨浪-3) is definitely equipped with MIRV technology. Modern SLBMs reduce overall height by integrating the nuclear payload bay with the third stage.
Specifically, a solid rocket motor (potentially liquid or hybrid) forms the core of the third stage, surrounded by a ring of nuclear warheads.
When the KZ-11 (快舟-11) solid launch vehicle was first unveiled, observers noted its unusual nose design.
This design is essentially an adaptation of the JL-3's liquid-fueled third-stage technology for civilian use. The SLBM's third stage corresponds to KZ-11's pointed section, with nuclear warheads encircling its perimeter (warhead base diameter: ~60–80 cm).
For the civilian launch vehicle:
An additional stage was added (formed by stacking two JL-3 first-stage motors, akin to the Peacekeeper-derived Minotaur V approach).
The third stage was inverted, placing the payload within the fairing (civilian payloads require standardized volumetric accommodation, unlike nuclear warheads' ring configuration).
The DF-31 is a 40-ton class intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), larger than the Minuteman III (~33 tons).
The JL-2 is derived from the DF-31.
The KZ-11, a 78-ton class civilian launch vehicle, is related to the JL-3. Its first stage weighs approximately 28 tons.
Therefore, the JL-3 should be a 50-ton class solid-propellant rocket. Considering the DF-31's technology originated from the mid-to-late 1990s (China's solid propellants at the time had not yet resolved CL20/N15 high-energy formulations), whereas the JL-3 represents technological advancements circa 2010, its solid rocket motor thrust has significantly increased.
The DF-31's first stage provides ~1,200 kN thrust, while the KZ-11 achieves at least 1,800–2,200 kN (comparable to the U.S. MX missile).
PS: ICBM takeoff thrust is typically 2–3 times its own mass. Higher thrust shortens atmospheric flight time, enhancing boost-phase penetration capability (primarily against U.S. ABL and forward-deployed THAAD systems). This technology is termed "fast-burn engine"—completing first-stage flight in 45–50 seconds, versus 60–70 seconds for conventional designs.
With fast-burn technology, the missile completes all three-stage solid-rocket boosting in ~120 seconds, whereas non-fast-burn ICBMs require 180–200 seconds.
Thus, the JL-3 increases both range and payload capacity, enabling reliable MIRV deployment.
Additionally, DF31 has a diameter of 2 meters, while KZ11 has a diameter of 2.2 meters
The problem is more on hard target side as the defensive need to address both direct hit and connectivity between shelters and command post.
To survive at least one direct hit, the shelter needs to be 150-200 meters underground, which is not financially possible unless it is built inside a mountain. And the shelters need to be connected with NC3 center after surviving a hit to receive code to retaliate. It is more like a math game to deter your enemy by making counterforce uneconomical.
For example, one BGD could built 6 tunnels under 100m rock that each shelters needs 3-4 attempts to destroy. It may need around 30-40 warheads to degrade one BGD by 80% or 90% meanwhile each BGD has only the same amount of warheads to retaliate.
It is a pure math question and i wont get into that deeper as it is boring as hell plus it will never happen. In short, the shelters are to make sure offensive side need more warheads to destroy less warheads in your inventory.
What year of release is this material from?
Chinese SLBM seems to be wrong. There should be much more of them (than 72).
antiterror13
Brigadier
It seems the report was in March 2025 .. not perfect but I think close enough
