It's quite interesting how the flanker platform has continued to transform in China. I really don't think things could've worked out this way with any other country.
If we look at when flankers were first being purchased by PLAAF, it was helped out by Russia's economic difficulty at the time. And because of Russia's economic difficulties, they were able to secure license production and transfer of technology. Unlike most countries out there, China had 2 competing institutes in Chengdu and Shenyang both building/designing their own aircraft. Since CAC got J-10 project, SAC was left free to carry out the task of building flankers. Without having 2 competing institutes, one project may have had to suffer if one was favored over the other. As we've seen with India and HAL, having both indigenous and license production projects in the same company is not optimal. Because of this healthy competition between SAC and CAC, SAC was pushed to quickly indigenize flankers locally as J-11B while they continued with J-11A production.
At the same time, China brought in over 100 Su-30MKK/2 despite the fact that all the Su-30s had very old avionics. In any other country, there would have been a lot of criticism for the MKK purchase, since PLAAF would soon induct aircraft that have better A2A combat and strike capabilities. In retrospect, the Su-30MKKs served 2 major purpose
1) deliver immediate capability with an offensive platform that could do ground strike and launch active guided medium range AAM. It allowed PLAAF pilots to starting training on these new capabilities and transition to an offensive air force a few years sooner. Might not sound like a lot, but PLAAF really values getting ability sooner and start training sooner.
2) serve as the basis for the J-16 project since China was quite involved in the development of Su-30MKK.
These are things that I didn't appreciate back 15 years ago, when I saw MKKs wasting away behind the new J-10/JH-7A combo sweeping through PLAAF/PLANAF. This definitely runs completely counter to the philosophy of Indians where they waited long time before the promised capabilities of MKIs become available. Even now, IAF is still waiting on Russians to deliver on what the super-MKI upgrade will look like. As we've seen over time, China's domestic industry has really fast tracked in the past 2 decades. Aside from WS-10 project, most domestic projects have finished on time. Relying on imports add to cost, uncertainty and makes maintenance more difficult. For example, China's J-10 production was affected by Russia's own procurement programs back in early to mid 2010s, since only so many AL-31s can be produced every year.
Which brings us to J-16. Most likely, they would've not been able to develop this without the MKKK experience. Without J-16, they would not have J-16D, which is a huge force multiplier. Without their experience with J-11B, it would've been much longer for SAC to develop J-15. Or China probably would've gone with a naval version of J-10, which would have shorter legs than naval flankers. As things stand, PLAN has 4th generation naval fighter jet with longer range and more payload than Rafale and F-18E/F. One could argue that J-15, even with AESA radar in the future, would be at a disadvantage in air combat. However, it would do really well serving as a multi-role missile truck and EW aircraft while complementing J-35s in the future carrier air wing.
I don't know if PLA saw these things ahead of time, but it has worked out pretty well for them.