China demographics thread.

AF-1

AF-1

Junior Member
Registered Member
People`s response to growing greed of richs, growing insecurities in every field of life, rapidly changing climate, lack of normal jobs, normally paid is very simple - no more births, no more kids - no future for anybody...
Not just in China, but in most of the world.
If there is no social justice for all, rapidly decresing birth rate will continue, even more extremely...
 
A

Appix

Senior Member
Registered Member

China’s population could halve within the next 45 years, new study warns​

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may be much faster than expected, with the number of people in the country halving within the next 45 years, a new study has warned.​

The projection was based on the official birth rate of 1.3 children per woman last year – well below the figure of 2 needed to keep the number stable – and forecast a
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than previous estimates. China’s
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and in 2019 the United Nations projected that China would still have around 1.3 billion people by 2065.​

​

Another estimate published in
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with the University of Washington last year suggested the Chinese population would halve by 2100.​

But the new research, from Professor Jiang Quanbao and colleagues with the institute for population and development studies at Xian Jiaotong University, warned that the country’s population decline may have been severely underestimated.​

The UN’s projection, for instance, was based on the assumption that​

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per woman.​

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, 25 per cent lower than the UN’s estimate.​

The Chinese authorities “need to pay close attention to the potential negative inertia of population growth and make a plan with countermeasures in advance,” wrote Jiang in the study published in the Journal of Xian University of Finance and Economics.​

​

The new birth rate, though unexpectedly low, was based on
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, which is believed to be the most accurate yet because it was collected entirely with the aid of digital devices for the first time and cross-checked with other government data sets.​

Though the census findings have only partially been disclosed to the public, the limited information already shed a new light on changes and future development trends in the Chinese population, according to the researchers.​

The pandemic may have had an impact on childbirth last year – but Jiang and his colleagues said the chances that the birth rate would rebound were low. They said it was more likely that the total population would soon start a rapid decline due to the drop in the number of women of child-bearing age.​

“If the fertility rate drops to 1, in 29 years the population in our country will fall by half,” they said. According to the new census data, children make up about 17 per cent of the population, while the proportion of over-60s rose to over 18 per cent.​

The researchers said it was the first time that
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. “People dare not to have children due to increasing economic pressure,” they wrote. “There are also severe shortages in supporting services for childbearing and care.”​

While the government has loosened its population policy earlier this year,
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, numerous studies have pointed out that
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such as high property prices are a major force driving down the birth rate.​

In some countries such as the United States, rising property prices can help raise the birth rate because they make people wealthier, but in China the opposite applies.​

A study published this month by the Chinese Academy of Sciences found that in the Yangtze River Delta, one of the most developed regions in the country, rapidly increasing housing prices have caused the area to have one of the lowest birth rates in the country.​

Another study in August suggested that in China, each 1,000 yuan (US$155) per square metre increase in property prices reduces the likelihood of having one child by 2 per cent, and that of having two children by 5 per cent.​

The Chinese government has recently launched a series of campaigns to control property prices, reduce the cost of education and increase the number of kindergartens, but the study said further measures are needed.​

He said that while the shrinking,
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there was some good news​

Professor Chen Gong, director of the Peking University Institute of Population Research, forecast in a recent article on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics that the Chinese population would start to decline from 2025.​

For example, the number of citizen with higher education qualifications had nearly doubled over the past decade and now stood at 15 per cent of population – something that Chen said could boost the country’s development. “It is expected that the quality of the Chinese population will increase rapidly and become a driving force for high quality economic development,” Chen said. “It will also reduce pressure on natural resources and the environment.”​

​

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B

Bob Smith

Junior Member
Registered Member
Appix said:

China’s population could halve within the next 45 years, new study warns​

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
may be much faster than expected, with the number of people in the country halving within the next 45 years, a new study has warned.​

The projection was based on the official birth rate of 1.3 children per woman last year – well below the figure of 2 needed to keep the number stable – and forecast a
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
than previous estimates. China’s
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and in 2019 the United Nations projected that China would still have around 1.3 billion people by 2065.​

​

Another estimate published in
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
with the University of Washington last year suggested the Chinese population would halve by 2100.​

But the new research, from Professor Jiang Quanbao and colleagues with the institute for population and development studies at Xian Jiaotong University, warned that the country’s population decline may have been severely underestimated.​

The UN’s projection, for instance, was based on the assumption that​

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
per woman.​

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, 25 per cent lower than the UN’s estimate.​

The Chinese authorities “need to pay close attention to the potential negative inertia of population growth and make a plan with countermeasures in advance,” wrote Jiang in the study published in the Journal of Xian University of Finance and Economics.​

​

The new birth rate, though unexpectedly low, was based on
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, which is believed to be the most accurate yet because it was collected entirely with the aid of digital devices for the first time and cross-checked with other government data sets.​

Though the census findings have only partially been disclosed to the public, the limited information already shed a new light on changes and future development trends in the Chinese population, according to the researchers.​

The pandemic may have had an impact on childbirth last year – but Jiang and his colleagues said the chances that the birth rate would rebound were low. They said it was more likely that the total population would soon start a rapid decline due to the drop in the number of women of child-bearing age.​

“If the fertility rate drops to 1, in 29 years the population in our country will fall by half,” they said. According to the new census data, children make up about 17 per cent of the population, while the proportion of over-60s rose to over 18 per cent.​

The researchers said it was the first time that
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. “People dare not to have children due to increasing economic pressure,” they wrote. “There are also severe shortages in supporting services for childbearing and care.”​

While the government has loosened its population policy earlier this year,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, numerous studies have pointed out that
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
such as high property prices are a major force driving down the birth rate.​

In some countries such as the United States, rising property prices can help raise the birth rate because they make people wealthier, but in China the opposite applies.​

A study published this month by the Chinese Academy of Sciences found that in the Yangtze River Delta, one of the most developed regions in the country, rapidly increasing housing prices have caused the area to have one of the lowest birth rates in the country.​

Another study in August suggested that in China, each 1,000 yuan (US$155) per square metre increase in property prices reduces the likelihood of having one child by 2 per cent, and that of having two children by 5 per cent.​

The Chinese government has recently launched a series of campaigns to control property prices, reduce the cost of education and increase the number of kindergartens, but the study said further measures are needed.​

He said that while the shrinking,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
there was some good news​

Professor Chen Gong, director of the Peking University Institute of Population Research, forecast in a recent article on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics that the Chinese population would start to decline from 2025.​

For example, the number of citizen with higher education qualifications had nearly doubled over the past decade and now stood at 15 per cent of population – something that Chen said could boost the country’s development. “It is expected that the quality of the Chinese population will increase rapidly and become a driving force for high quality economic development,” Chen said. “It will also reduce pressure on natural resources and the environment.”​

​

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Click to expand...
While it is a problem, why would you base your projection off a year where a once in a century pandemic happened? I guess this is juicy red meat for the China will collapse types.
 
ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Let's establish some facts here. The birth rate in China isn't declining - it isn't where it should be, but it isn't declining:
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An article here and cherry picked data there doesn't change the facts.

Second, and much more importantly, the government has clearly launched a campaign to address this problem and still has many more levers that it can pull beyond the actions it's currently taking. Posting articles about the birth rate at this time is silly alarmism - it's like posting articles about air pollution in China a decade ago when the government launched a campaign against that problem. There are no more articles about that these days; do you know why? Because the problem is being solved and tremendous progress has been made, and the Western press will never write an article about a problem being solved in China.

Give this a rest for a few years and see what the situation looks like then.
 
G

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
Bob Smith said:
The World Bank, which gets its data from the Chinese government, shows an uptick in fertility from 2017-2019.
Click to expand...
The raw numbers straight from the Chinese government are clear. In 2017 there were 17.23 million births and by 2019 it declined to 14.65 million, which was a 58-year low at the time. The only way the fertility rate could have increased is if the number of childbearing women dropped by 15% in just two years.

Either way it's not good.

The number of registered marriages (an indicator of future births) in China is plunging:
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The traditional Confucian family is essentially collapsing under attack by the modern Western lifestyle. Confucius considered the family to be the foundation of Chinese society, and this has been true since the Qin dynasty. Even during the worst days of the Hundred Years' Humiliation and Qing dynasty, the traditional Confucian Chinese family survived. Today as China focuses on the shining objects like semiconductors or space travel, the base of its society is in steep decline. In the long term there are no shiny objects without a healthy foundation.
 
ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Bob Smith said:
The World Bank, which gets its data from the Chinese government, shows an uptick in fertility from 2017-2019.
Click to expand...
There are two reasons for that: The first is that the numbers people throw around are usually not numbers, not rates. TFR is the number of children per woman of childbearing age. That can go up as birth numbers go down. The second is that that number is cherry picked - the people pushing their agenda picked the worst decline and propagated that.

What people need to understand is that this issue will play out over decades. Many decades. Giving a weekly play-by-play is useless. If we want to be accurate we must include the medical advances that will come into play over the relevant time periods. Do you think that after a nearly a century of medical advancement, a 65 year old in 2100 will be in the same state of health as a 65 year old now?

If regenerative medicine advances to the point where aging itself can be brought under medical control then all of this analysis goes right into the trash can.
 
A

Appix

Senior Member
Registered Member
Give people who want to start a family free or cheap property. Why would we care about profits of property tycoons or rigid capitalism while our population goes down the drain which each passing year.
 
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